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I wouldn't mind Hofburg for the win. In fact, I would prefer it from a betting standpoint the way I'm going to play. I can't leave out Justify but I do admire your stand.
The only figure maker that has Justify's Preakness better than his Derby is TimeformUS. I imagine it is because that figure includes, besides final time, a pace calculation for the subject horse & a pace calculation for the race itself, all into one figure. TFUS gave Justify a 127 for The Derby & a 128 for The Preakness.
Hofburg is clear 2nd choice on the m/line, Rae. If he drifts up, it won't be by much, IMO.
I agree. Gronk at 12-1 is an awful underlay for the win. Tenfold is actually a slight overlay in my book. I think 8-1 is fair value for him. I agree he will drop a bit from the m/line.
Citizen is a tasty overlay on the m/line, IMO.
Bravazo is a nice horse but I don't like him in here. I think he ends up chasing & fading. Or else the Coach calls for a squeeze play, putting Free Drop over on the break. :)
I do expect Hofburg to be closer early but not that close. Attending the pace in a relaxed stalk.
Frankly, I don't think Winstar wants Noble Indy to spoil the party & Repole (the other owner) has Vino. Vino, I worry about a little because I'm leaving him out.
Several of the Belmont jocks will get a tour of the full circuit in the 5th race, as well.
Rain is called for but it looks like only enough to tighten up the track & make it faster than usual.
If Noble Indy is sent, he has to clear before the never-ending clubhouse turn. Otherwise, he will be hung wide. Restoring Hope has some early foot & Baffert is clearly not above sending him at a pace to keep Noble in the bleachers.
The Belmont is, among other things, a terrific jock race. Many will get lost out there & sink their mounts' chances.
I said I was distressed about Justify getting the one because I think it probably increases his chances, not decrease. I’m trying to beat him lol. Would you still say post positions don’t matter in the Belmont if Noble Indy had drawn the two?
Tough call on Tenfold, Cubs but I, like you, decided to look elsewhere. Even with a short field of 10, he'll need a couple others to pack it in to move up.
Tenfold isn't following the typical path to the Belmont for a MrP. He's only the fourth to go the 2nd/3rd leg route. Patience Game 99 x/5/6; Eddington 04 x/3/4; CP West 07 x/4/5.
Once the three leg rotation settled out regularly (D/P/B), starting in 1932-2017, there have been 86 runners go the 2nd and 3rd leg routes.
Celtic Ash 60 x/3/1; One Count 52 x/3/1; Inside Tract 57 x/3/2; Eddington 04 x/3/4; Key To The Mint 72 x/3/4. Five managed to run back in the top four. Eleven Preakness 3rd's didn't make the top four in the Belmont leg. Senior Investment 17 x/3/5; Icabad Crane 08 x/3/8; Hemmingsways Key 06 x/3/6; Classic Cat 98 x/3/8; Rock Point 89 x/3/6; High Honors 83 x/3/5; Cut Away 82 x/3/11; Paristo 81 x/3/7; Flying Scot 37 x/3/5; Jean Bart 36 x/3/8; Utopian 33 x/3/9.
Props to Tenfold's connections for giving him a shot and not being quitters. I'll be surprised if any of them run south of two and a half minutes so any of them could...
At one time I was delusional and thought I might get 10-1. My hope was that Chad Brown would take some money, but mostly I was hoping that all the casual horse fans would come out in droves to put down their two dollar bets on Justify for posterity. Now I'll settle for 6 or 7-1. Doubtful, but a guy can hope.
I think the m/l maker believes Chad Brown will take money. 12/1?? If Gronk was still with Noseda it would likely be double that & actually closer to fair value.
However, Gronk, along with everyone in the field, can land ITM if the breaks go their way.
I understand the human Gronkowski is slated to attend, as well. Saddle him up! Ha!
Looks like I may the only one here looking for some Malbec on Saturday. If things go as they have recently for me, you can put my pick 2nd, being nipped in the last steps.
Interesting to see that pattern go back even further, thanks.
Now, I'm trying to figure out what to do with the two Giants Causeway sire/bms and the Storm Boot. Bernstein got Gormley a 4th on a similar cross.