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Tough call on Tenfold, Cubs but I, like you, decided to look elsewhere. Even with a short field of 10, he'll need a couple others to pack it in to move up.
Tenfold isn't following the typical path to the Belmont for a MrP. He's only the fourth to go the 2nd/3rd leg route. Patience Game 99 x/5/6; Eddington 04 x/3/4; CP West 07 x/4/5.
Once the three leg rotation settled out regularly (D/P/B), starting in 1932-2017, there have been 86 runners go the 2nd and 3rd leg routes.
Celtic Ash 60 x/3/1; One Count 52 x/3/1; Inside Tract 57 x/3/2; Eddington 04 x/3/4; Key To The Mint 72 x/3/4. Five managed to run back in the top four. Eleven Preakness 3rd's didn't make the top four in the Belmont leg. Senior Investment 17 x/3/5; Icabad Crane 08 x/3/8; Hemmingsways Key 06 x/3/6; Classic Cat 98 x/3/8; Rock Point 89 x/3/6; High Honors 83 x/3/5; Cut Away 82 x/3/11; Paristo 81 x/3/7; Flying Scot 37 x/3/5; Jean Bart 36 x/3/8; Utopian 33 x/3/9.
Props to Tenfold's connections for giving him a shot and not being quitters. I'll be surprised if any of them run south of two and a half minutes so any of them could...
At one time I was delusional and thought I might get 10-1. My hope was that Chad Brown would take some money, but mostly I was hoping that all the casual horse fans would come out in droves to put down their two dollar bets on Justify for posterity. Now I'll settle for 6 or 7-1. Doubtful, but a guy can hope.
I think the m/l maker believes Chad Brown will take money. 12/1?? If Gronk was still with Noseda it would likely be double that & actually closer to fair value.
However, Gronk, along with everyone in the field, can land ITM if the breaks go their way.
I understand the human Gronkowski is slated to attend, as well. Saddle him up! Ha!
Looks like I may the only one here looking for some Malbec on Saturday. If things go as they have recently for me, you can put my pick 2nd, being nipped in the last steps.
Interesting to see that pattern go back even further, thanks.
Now, I'm trying to figure out what to do with the two Giants Causeway sire/bms and the Storm Boot. Bernstein got Gormley a 4th on a similar cross.
What two Belmont Stakes runners have Giants Causeway sire/bms ?
Restoring Hope, Free Drop Billy, then Tenfold has him as 2nd bms
A nice high altitude Argentinian Malbec, Pistol. I haven't had any alcohol in many years but back in the day, I liked good wine & that is very good wine.
Hey, we all still have a shot to hit this race since today's Wednesday. :)
I'm going to pass on the two Giant's and the Storm Boot, but don't let that sway you. Destin and Gun Runner threw in exceptions but I'm going to stick with that. Giant's has had 106 nom'd to the TC over the years; Restoring Hope joins War Academy, French Getaway, Japhir and Myakka River that had API line dams. Again, I'm pretty critical of API's regardless of where they fall...I'll buy in some if performance is over the top or they have some beef on the bottom.
Giants on the bottom needed the right sire and line to help him. He also was a part of El Padrino, Verrazano and Untrapped. Pickings were kind of slim last year in the Belmont so I threw Patch in...robm liked him. Not a big fan of Union Rags then or now...if he can get a top four runner out of a Giants daughter, he'll wreck all my tickets.
Would be nice if we had some stronger new shooters; Blended Citizen, Gronk and Restoring Hope (at least they are willing to give it a shot against a TC hoper. Looked at the 32 that preceded Justify. Nine of them were knocked out by new shooters; seven by fellow three leg runners; three by first and third leg runners; and one (Touch Gold) that did the second and third leg.
Mike will really need to screw it up for Justify to miss the top four, especially against this bunch. 32-12-8-5-4 with a 7th, 8th and dnf.
Good luck, Cubs!!
fivestaryak said...Would be nice if we had some stronger new shooters; Blended Citizen, Gronk and Restoring Hope
I just can't find much in the new shooters to play 1st or 2nd. Only good thing about Blended might be HFC angle, and fact he is a dual qualifier.
Horses who went cheap as yearlings also don't win the BEL according to my research....higher $ and homebreds do okay. So the win list would not include Noble Indy, Blended or Gronk.