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I'm going to pass on the two Giant's and the Storm Boot, but don't let that sway you. Destin and Gun Runner threw in exceptions but I'm going to stick with that. Giant's has had 106 nom'd to the TC over the years; Restoring Hope joins War Academy, French Getaway, Japhir and Myakka River that had API line dams. Again, I'm pretty critical of API's regardless of where they fall...I'll buy in some if performance is over the top or they have some beef on the bottom.
Giants on the bottom needed the right sire and line to help him. He also was a part of El Padrino, Verrazano and Untrapped. Pickings were kind of slim last year in the Belmont so I threw Patch in...robm liked him. Not a big fan of Union Rags then or now...if he can get a top four runner out of a Giants daughter, he'll wreck all my tickets.
Would be nice if we had some stronger new shooters; Blended Citizen, Gronk and Restoring Hope (at least they are willing to give it a shot against a TC hoper. Looked at the 32 that preceded Justify. Nine of them were knocked out by new shooters; seven by fellow three leg runners; three by first and third leg runners; and one (Touch Gold) that did the second and third leg.
Mike will really need to screw it up for Justify to miss the top four, especially against this bunch. 32-12-8-5-4 with a 7th, 8th and dnf.
Good luck, Cubs!!
fivestaryak said...Would be nice if we had some stronger new shooters; Blended Citizen, Gronk and Restoring Hope
I just can't find much in the new shooters to play 1st or 2nd. Only good thing about Blended might be HFC angle, and fact he is a dual qualifier.
Horses who went cheap as yearlings also don't win the BEL according to my research....higher $ and homebreds do okay. So the win list would not include Noble Indy, Blended or Gronk.
Agree, Winter. If Justify gets 'beat' during the slow down, I would expect it to be Hofburg based on stuff; followed by Bravazo, Vino Rosso, Blended Citizen and Tenfold with shots to mix it up depending on how close to 'three minutes' it takes them.
I like Blended Citizen except for the fact that he is a Gone West over Northern Dancer. Plenty of nice runners, regardless of distance--they just can't, for whatever reason, hold their form. I'll be using him in a big box with the hope that Justify runs out of it...but fully expecting Blended Citizen to challenge the back end. I don't know if he'll go off at his m/l odds, but that will be a plus.
How much are we talking about? Gronk sold for $67k but BC and NI weren’t sold as yearlings because their minimum wasn’t met.
Oldbettowin said...How much are we talking about? Gronk sold for $67k but BC and NI weren’t sold as yearlings because their minimum wasn’t met.
just go thru winners for last 10 years and see the yearling prices and who the homebreds are. it's just a "loose" angle I use, never saw it anywhere but it's worked for me. It allowed me to toss Noble Indy, Gronk, and BC from the win spot, which I feel pretty confident about.
Also, if you go back to Jon Whites strikes for the derby I think he got a lot of them "right" and if it weren't for the utter slop and craziness, things PROBABLY would have turned out similarly to his strike predictions IMHO (of course BC and Gronk were not in the derby, so you just have to make your own decision there about them in the win spot.)
Justify has work cut out for him, with #1 post he will have to go out fast to that *short* first turn and that may impact his energy for the final stretch. He is a superior athlete though and if he can do this, I will be first to sing his praises. If not there is certainly the chance that some of those outside post horses will come along later and kick clear of him in the stretch (tenfold, vino, blended---or of course, someone else if they don't get caught up in that early part of the mad rush.). I think Noble Indy will have stopped running by then, so.....I know he has a top rider but .....
Most fatal move in BEL has been making move too early around last turn......so who is the horse who is not going to go for that, or the jockey who knows or perceives just how much further it's going to be to the Finish Line. Do you want a push button horse or a horse who is not going to accelerate in a split second in the event jockey DOES pull the trigger too fast?
PISTOL9 said...Looks like I may the only one here looking for some Malbec on Saturday. If things go as they have recently for me, you can put my pick 2nd, being nipped in the last steps.
I haven't been following the undercard, what race are we talking about here? Thanks.
If I recall you were a Commissioner fan back in 14. Thought you may take a shine to Noble Indy with the API sire. Must not like the other side I presume.
One of my luckier tc races having the top three in order with the dh in 4th. Had a bunch of tickets that worked but came up just short of six figures. I like Hofburg's chances but not so much for Noble Indy. Closest lines was Commanding Curve...and he had better names and other stuff. I looked at Noble Indy a number of times since anything can win this leg; just could not do it. Hopefully you will be using him should he run well---always good for someone here to cash.
That was my best ever year. Not near what you made but enough to pour a 2 tiered concrete patio with extended sidewalks to my wood shed and fire pit. Topped it off with a custom made metal sign with a horse and jockey in full stride and the words Triple Crown Terrace on it. I should post a picture of it someday (if I knew how). Now if I could only get the Superfecta shed :) Good luck to you!!