It is uncanny how T2's (Gronkowski) fill that show spot in the Belmont.  I always build a ticket keying a T2 in 3rd...even if they are dragging their nose and show a slight limp in the post parade.  Should Justify run 4th, I'd take show money on any of them, especially Gronk!

Thanks, good luck to you, too. I guess I'll try to sprinkle in some Gronk, hopefully he will play at more realistic odds in the exotics. I'd feel better about him if he had a different branch on top.

So you are fine with the Mt Livermore(BG) sitting there as 2nd bms?  That does not look good to me.

He didn't look good when he was Flashy Bull's bms; nothing has changed.  His T2 line, Sir Gaylord, is 4-0-0-0-0 in the Belmont; his 9-f conduit, Germicide is D: 2-0-0-0-0; P: 1-0-0-0-0; B: 0-0-0-0-0; C: 0-0-0-0-0.  His x/MRP/MRP/x up the middle doesn't do much for me and they robbed the cradle to get his dam which was still growing.  

I don't give him much of a chance if any to run in the top four but I'll still do a ticket keying him in 3rd just for the heck of it.  T2 in the Belmont is 54-4-3-11-4 with 5 of the last 6 T2 runners finishing 3rd.  Rock Hard Ten finished 5th in 2004; had he been a sport he should have been in a dead heat with a fellow T2 for 3rd by the name of Royal Assault.  

Ready's Echo, by lines, is about the closest to Gronk but at least RE had some bottom to him.  He dead heated with Anak Nakal eight lengths back so who knows.  

I've decided now on who/how I will play.   I will key Justify but also play Tenfold to win.   Underneath I'll play Noble Indy, Vino Rosso, Restoring Hope, FDB and Gronkowski.   I'm omitting Hofburg and Bravazo entirely.   The only way to make money on this super if Justify wins is to play all long shots underneath.

If Justify loses, it will be to either Hofburg or Tenfold IMHO.   I just don't think Justify will lose.   

In his case for me it is all about running in all three legs and being a P/P/P/P.  Those that won the first two legs and ran in the Belmont: American Pharoah, Charismatic, Funny Cide and California Chrome.  

P/P/P/P's that ran in all three legs and won the Belmont: American Pharoah and Afleet Alex.  

Of the 109 Storm Cat's to fill a triple crown gate through this year's Preakness, only two have run with 20 dosage points.  Justify and the first one, Tabasco Cat 6/1/1.  

Been awhile since we've had a MRP/NP/P/NP.  Blended Citizen is going to mess up some pretty solid stats if he doesn't at least run in the super.

08-2-0-2-3 (1992-2003); tired boy War Emblem finished 8th.  Four of those eight were new shooters with two 3rds and two 4ths.  Unshaded picked up a 3rd after a decent run getting a 2nd in the Peter Pan.  Wish he had a different ND under him but still might be good enough; won't be using him on any straight tickets--box ticket only.

Justify...good luck!

fivestaryak said:

Wish he had a different ND under him but still might be good enough; won't be using him on any straight tickets--box ticket only. are you talking tenfold or justify, i think tenfold,(Giants causeway is scary there,

the only p/n in the field i won't have on my ticket unless on the bottom of a wheel
i don't like that nick and i've been bitten before  with them.

Did you see the bumping in the fog (preakness)

It would be cool to see a apollo horse win the Belmont and have 2 tc apollo winners

in the same year.

i didn't have the time to crunch the numbers hopefully i can get back on it next year

Blended Citizen.  As for SC in that spot with Tenfold, I'll let you root for that one...I know you favor Giants because of Gun Runner.  We can agree to disagree...that was Fappiano, not Giants.  I checked with More Than Ready and Mineshaft along with a bunch of others...they did the wink and nod.

SC will continue showing up more and more in that x/x/x/SC spot.  Magnum Moon, Enticed, Noble Indy and Tenfold joined Shagaf and Whitmore along with the other 96 noms that came up short.  Tenfold was at least close to the line when they snapped the win photo.  

With most of the pedigrees loaded with Storm Cat and AP Indy these days, I'm glad my number crunching days are over.  Good luck!