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Belmont post positions   Triple Crown

Started 6/5/18 by Oldbettowin; 5913 views.
In reply toRe: msg 56
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/7/18

won the preakness or didn't run in the preakness
16 of last 19 belmont winners didn't run in the preakness
the other 3 belmont winners won the preakness- 
if the horse you like ran in the preakness and didn't win the preakness
are his chances better or worse than breaking the apollo curse?
GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

6/7/18

I've decided now on who/how I will play.   I will key Justify but also play Tenfold to win.   Underneath I'll play Noble Indy, Vino Rosso, Restoring Hope, FDB and Gronkowski.   I'm omitting Hofburg and Bravazo entirely.   The only way to make money on this super if Justify wins is to play all long shots underneath.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

6/7/18

If Justify loses, it will be to either Hofburg or Tenfold IMHO.   I just don't think Justify will lose.   

fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

6/7/18

In his case for me it is all about running in all three legs and being a P/P/P/P.  Those that won the first two legs and ran in the Belmont: American Pharoah, Charismatic, Funny Cide and California Chrome.  

P/P/P/P's that ran in all three legs and won the Belmont: American Pharoah and Afleet Alex.  

Of the 109 Storm Cat's to fill a triple crown gate through this year's Preakness, only two have run with 20 dosage points.  Justify and the first one, Tabasco Cat 6/1/1.  

Been awhile since we've had a MRP/NP/P/NP.  Blended Citizen is going to mess up some pretty solid stats if he doesn't at least run in the super.

08-2-0-2-3 (1992-2003); tired boy War Emblem finished 8th.  Four of those eight were new shooters with two 3rds and two 4ths.  Unshaded picked up a 3rd after a decent run getting a 2nd in the Peter Pan.  Wish he had a different ND under him but still might be good enough; won't be using him on any straight tickets--box ticket only.

Justify...good luck!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/7/18

fivestaryak said:

Wish he had a different ND under him but still might be good enough; won't be using him on any straight tickets--box ticket only. are you talking tenfold or justify, i think tenfold,(Giants causeway is scary there,

the only p/n in the field i won't have on my ticket unless on the bottom of a wheel
i don't like that nick and i've been bitten before  with them.

Did you see the bumping in the fog (preakness)

It would be cool to see a apollo horse win the Belmont and have 2 tc apollo winners

in the same year.

i didn't have the time to crunch the numbers hopefully i can get back on it next year

fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

6/7/18

Blended Citizen.  As for SC in that spot with Tenfold, I'll let you root for that one...I know you favor Giants because of Gun Runner.  We can agree to disagree...that was Fappiano, not Giants.  I checked with More Than Ready and Mineshaft along with a bunch of others...they did the wink and nod.

SC will continue showing up more and more in that x/x/x/SC spot.  Magnum Moon, Enticed, Noble Indy and Tenfold joined Shagaf and Whitmore along with the other 96 noms that came up short.  Tenfold was at least close to the line when they snapped the win photo.  

With most of the pedigrees loaded with Storm Cat and AP Indy these days, I'm glad my number crunching days are over.  Good luck!

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

6/7/18

& Smarty

Somewhere here 3 runners named with Giant's Causeway ...please list again  

Thanks (d)

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

6/7/18

Oxbow and Paynter were out for full siblings to Tiznow.  Much different to the bottom of this years NP.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/7/18

i like fappiano over g causeway, 2 lines of fappiano in gun runner,

i like scat as the 2nd bms or 3rd bms  he needs help, it wasn't causeway as the bms that i like

with that mr p/ s cat nick or fapp/scat;   i thought g causeway might be ok there

or 2 lines of storm bird with one s cat or no scat.

tenfold i like the top 3 sire lines  mr p/dep min/ api combination with curlin and maybe

giants causeway will pull it off  in that spot with s cat , storm bird and married to possibly perfect

in that spot should pass on some stamina. Prince Quillos sons and daughters in a passing position

with round table might be the way to go with this bunch.

one theory could be the year of apollo might be because of a weak bunch..

and its 12f and i like the odds for a fast track . i'm taking a shot,  good luck to you to. 

back up box, box box, etc

.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/7/18

3 of the last 4  belmont winners were p/n  all different N' and all Tapit Sires.

keep an eye on that angle.

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