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Belmont post positions   Triple Crown

Started 6/5/18 by Oldbettowin; 5858 views.
fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

6/8/18

I'll be using him as well.  I like runners that look great and also look terrible along the way.  Most bettors look elsewhere which is fine.  Still wish he had a better broodmare sire but he'll do since his s/bms nick has had 10 winners which is tops all time if you use RAN/ND...which also include MRP/ND, RAN/SC and MRP/SC.  I separate MRP out of RAN since RAN didn't contribute to the those 10 winners.  

Hofburg and Noble Indy's nick has one winner in Rags To Riches.  I separate API out from BR but I guess the BR/ND will do with SC thrown in.

Vino Rosso has an interesting dosage index if you are looking for Belmont winners with a DI between 3.54 to 3.99.  Riva Ridge came in at 3.53 and Thunder Gulch at 4.00.  Only one Belmont winner in Vino's range and that was Jaipur...plenty tried.  

As I mentioned, Blended Citizen could figure it out going long(er) but he is also a candidate for the back end.   Only three previous MRP/HYP/ND/xx in the TC.  Thunder Gulch, Court Vision and The Cliffs Edge.  Thunder Gulch gave the Belmont a try...did okay.  Only one x/HYP/ND/BOIS in the TC.  Sarava gave the Belmont a try and did okay.  

good luck to you and Giacomo whether you go big or small.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

6/8/18

Just watch a video by Christian Hellmers.  His questioning will make one want to back off this race or completely pass.  BB seems to get horses to run farther than one would expect.   Recent uptick in late developers the last few years.

  • Edited June 8, 2018 4:13 pm  by  PISTOL9
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

splits for some preps:
preakness splits
justify
23.11
4f  47.19  6f 1.11.42   mile  1.36.10.  1.55.93
------------ 24.23-------------- 24.68----19.83   final Q 26.00
bravado
23.43
4f   47.60  6f 1.12.02  mile  1.37.11   1.56.13
--------------24.42-------------25.09*---19.02     final Q 25.29
* took a break that Q second race in a row stop and go style
---
tenfold
23.64
4f  47.82  6f 1.12.43   mile  1.36.80    1.56.15
-------------- 24.61-----------24.37------19.35   final Q 25.45
bumped in foggy conditions, look at replays, 2 reliable sources gave me a heads up
and i haven't  researched it. slowed his mo
------------
sporting chance-------------------------------- 1.58.30+
---------------------------------------------------------
Blended Cit.      peter pan stks
24.25      47.39     1.11.73    1.37.08       1.49.75   1/8 12.67   last Q 25.35
---------
hofburg          derby = terrible conditions for most
brushed at start, steadied  twice 13th at mile marker 17.5+l behind  1.40.6 
7th finish 8.75 lengths back   2.05.95 last Q 25.35
passed vino rosso after 8f, passed free drop billy before 8f,
noble indy ran 5th early then passed by others and  backed up finished 17th
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

edit to add tonalist  was positive on every angle except  “O” points in 4th wing of dosage profile
and the rf but he had a 7sx4d some go that far for rf"s.

i got this much done for pedigree pts
not enough time for cmp data.score this if interested.
---
score a positive pt for a contender if his name isn't listed
in a negative angle
--
sires bm sire cd over .90--1 negative pt
free drop billy 1,25, gronkowski 1,26, justify 1.04
tenfold .93. vino rosso .93
-------
sires bm sire di above 3.25--1 negative pt
free drop billy 4.25, gronkowski 6,20, justify 3.95
noble indy 3.80,tenfold 3.67, vino rosso 3.67
---
dams bm sire di above 3.00--1 negative pt
free drop billy 4.78,justify 3.16,restoring hope 3.16
...[Message truncated]
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SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

6/8/18

Thanks!  Same to you, of course. 

The two horses I'm not using that seem to have garnered some support are Bambino Bravazo who could get a dream trip sitting off Justify & Vino Repole who may get the special Ziti Rigati Marinara.  Ha!

I'm going to play small especially after Giacomo commented that I should worry more that Citizen might run like Orson Welles, never mind the relatively swift Citizen Kane.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

6/8/18

Like I said to Prince, I'm not itching to play it.  Going small & using J. as one of the 4 just for fun.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

i had time to do a few performance angles and i was surprised
maybe because of to many off track races.trying to get an idea, i don't think this helps much
a couple of these angles are hard for forward placed horses to qualify for, like last Q
---
performace points
-
justify 10
blended citizen  9
tenfold 9
bravazo   8
gronkowski 3
hofburg 3
noble indy 3
vino rosso 3
free drop billy 2
restoring hope
--
fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

6/8/18

Thanks, Robm.  Blended Citizen (MRP/HYP/ND/BOIS) with no stamina chefs, especially with Langfuhrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr is a tough one.  Should be interesting since he is from that nick with 9 winners (MRP/ND) or 10 if you want to throw in (MRP/SC) and both Thunder Gulch (MRP/HYP/ND/x) and Sarava (x/HYP/ND/BOIS) previous winners with no stamina chefs.

Tapit/P or Tapit/ND is some concern...he'll need to keep bringing those NP bms with decent dam families.  

Interesting bunch...even if the big one doesn't finish it off.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

any sire have more than 3 winners of the belmont ?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

see if you can learn anything from this for the tapit concern'
8 generation female linebreeding
compare it to the 8 gen male linebreeding and look and note at the 5 gen. pedigree

TAPWRIT C, 2014 DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
SOMETHINGROYAL
...[Message truncated]
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