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Belmont post positions   Triple Crown

Started 6/5/18 by Oldbettowin; 7536 views.
Msg 83 of 107 to fivestaryakfivestaryak 
In reply toRe: msg 77
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

edit to add tonalist  was positive on every angle except  “O” points in 4th wing of dosage profile
and the rf but he had a 7sx4d some go that far for rf"s.

i got this much done for pedigree pts
not enough time for cmp data.score this if interested.
---
score a positive pt for a contender if his name isn't listed
in a negative angle
--
sires bm sire cd over .90--1 negative pt
free drop billy 1,25, gronkowski 1,26, justify 1.04
tenfold .93. vino rosso .93
-------
sires bm sire di above 3.25--1 negative pt
free drop billy 4.25, gronkowski 6,20, justify 3.95
noble indy 3.80,tenfold 3.67, vino rosso 3.67
---
dams bm sire di above 3.00--1 negative pt
free drop billy 4.78,justify 3.16,restoring hope 3.16
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Msg 84 of 107 to fivestaryakfivestaryak 
In reply toRe: msg 80
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

6/8/18

Thanks!  Same to you, of course. 

The two horses I'm not using that seem to have garnered some support are Bambino Bravazo who could get a dream trip sitting off Justify & Vino Repole who may get the special Ziti Rigati Marinara.  Ha!

I'm going to play small especially after Giacomo commented that I should worry more that Citizen might run like Orson Welles, never mind the relatively swift Citizen Kane.

 
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Msg 85 of 107 to PISTOL9PISTOL9 
In reply toRe: msg 81
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

6/8/18

Like I said to Prince, I'm not itching to play it.  Going small & using J. as one of the 4 just for fun.

 
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Msg 86 of 107 to fivestaryakfivestaryak 
In reply toRe: msg 80
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

i had time to do a few performance angles and i was surprised
maybe because of to many off track races.trying to get an idea, i don't think this helps much
a couple of these angles are hard for forward placed horses to qualify for, like last Q
---
performace points
-
justify 10
blended citizen  9
tenfold 9
bravazo   8
gronkowski 3
hofburg 3
noble indy 3
vino rosso 3
free drop billy 2
restoring hope
--
 
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Msg 87 of 107 to smartyslewsmartyslew 
In reply toRe: msg 83
fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

6/8/18

Thanks, Robm.  Blended Citizen (MRP/HYP/ND/BOIS) with no stamina chefs, especially with Langfuhrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr is a tough one.  Should be interesting since he is from that nick with 9 winners (MRP/ND) or 10 if you want to throw in (MRP/SC) and both Thunder Gulch (MRP/HYP/ND/x) and Sarava (x/HYP/ND/BOIS) previous winners with no stamina chefs.

Tapit/P or Tapit/ND is some concern...he'll need to keep bringing those NP bms with decent dam families.  

Interesting bunch...even if the big one doesn't finish it off.

 
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Msg 88 of 107 to fivestaryakfivestaryak 
In reply toRe: msg 87
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

any sire have more than 3 winners of the belmont ?

 
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Msg 89 of 107 to fivestaryakfivestaryak 
In reply toRe: msg 87
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

see if you can learn anything from this for the tapit concern'
8 generation female linebreeding
compare it to the 8 gen male linebreeding and look and note at the 5 gen. pedigree

TAPWRIT C, 2014 DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.71
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
SOMETHINGROYAL
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Msg 90 of 107 to fivestaryakfivestaryak 
In reply toRe: msg 87
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

you know how bad the nor dan /br nick is for the derby, look at something royal and natalma
they are not compatible in the belmont . if hofburg wins he will be the first for this angle.

Something Royal and natalma and/or  her dam almahmoud have never been 
on the same chart for this angle for a belmont winners chart. Hofburg has all 3 toss for the win
style is ok for itm, since 1900 gallant man is the only belmont winner with a higher percentage 5.42 %
than hofburgs 5.314% but gallant mans who is good to go. 1957 winner
toss free drop billy for the same angle, but with these 2 contenders like crest says, one of these days
hofburg has some positve females besides S royal,aspidistra, knights daughter, la troienne
could be one of those days.
HOFBURG C, 2015 DP = 6-11-16-1-0 (34) DI = 2.78   CD = 0.65
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
NATALMA
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Msg 91 of 107 to smartyslewsmartyslew 
In reply toRe: msg 88
fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

6/8/18

I have Lexington with four.  Tapit is in good company with Man O' War but given the eras, Tapit's feat is pretty impressive with nothing but good mares waiting in line.

 
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Msg 92 of 107 to fivestaryakfivestaryak 
In reply toRe: msg 91
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/8/18

lexington with 4 , lexington/ leamington were quite a ,pair i think virgil and hindoo caught lexingtons daughters

all good lines.

look at how many tapits are out there in the next 2 crops. lots of P/N i'm sure.

somebody will get a jump start on that angle with deep pockets and the percentage of culls

will go up if they are buying off of 1 furlong works. i'll look for some homebreds.

 
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