sorry didn't finish my post about Joevia.  If you look at his works at Belmont, back in Jan, Feb, and March, his workouts were "sharper" than Tacitus and Spinoffs this week, so yeah, he's *fast* on the BEL surface.

So it appears that I had better place some "single w/p/s" wagers in this race, because I do not have Tacitus to win on my exotics tickets and I've been assured by everyone and anyone that he is going to win this (except for one of my gal pals who is a pedigree nerd and says no no nope.).  I think I will reign back the bankroll I was planning on using for this race.  :) 

Will you be doing the CMP profile this year. I believe there are 4 or 5 numbers related to this?

Everfast has improved as his races have gotten longer.  

Maybe the best way to handicap the race is betting on the 4 jockeys who you "think" can win with a competent ride.   Lets see --- Ortiz jr (wins a lot) - Ortiz (wins a lot at Belmont)  - Lepareaux (really hot right now) - and Johnny V (Pletcher angle).  Ok I'll box these 4 in an exacta and call it a day.  No handicapping required.  

They all look pretty much the same to me with the exception of the Preakness.  His race in the Holy Bull was a good one too but that was at 8 1/2 furlongs.  

When Pat Day was still riding, half the crowd at Keeneland would bet on whichever horse he was riding regardless of its real chance of winning.  Of course many of his mounts were the better regarded entrants anyway but his presence would make many of them unbettable.  Some days he would ride five winners and other days people would be cussing him out lol.  Bottom line, a good jockey sure doesn’t hurt but they’re not going to win the race without the horse.  

Oldbettowin said...

I’ve got Everfast down for a pretty significant regression in this race

Let's put it this way:  If you are playing a superfecta, I would not leave him off my ticket.  

zowcownow said...

Maybe the best way to handicap the race is betting on the 4 jockeys who you "think" can win with a competent ride.   Lets see --- Ortiz jr (wins a lot) - Ortiz (wins a lot at Belmont)  - Lepareaux (really hot right now) - and Johnny V (Pletcher angle).  Ok I'll box these 4 in an exacta and call it a day.  No handicapping required.  

IF you think it's a jockey's race, then you would have to play Lezcano wouldn't you?  He's the top rider at BEL 

In a four horse race I woul 100% agree.  :D