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I like these on your list but just can't get behind Intrepid Heart too much. I watched his Peter Pan a few times, he was only carrying 116 lbs and only at 1-1/8 and he was weaving and looking very leg-weary, almost drunk. That is not something I wanna see in the Belmont where they will be carrying 126 and going longer.
I feel this is a pretty serious consideration, which I normally would not negatively score IF the horse ran without looking leg weary. I certainly would not be using him first for sure. Breeding is one thing but it has to have proper reflection on the race track and this is not what I am seeing with Intrepid Heart. I think it's because he only had 1 race at 2 years old (another negative) and speaks to "foundation".........foundation is proably the most important thing for a race like The Belmont Stakes. It's more important than in the Derby or the Preakness or the Peter Pan.
Yes, the trend is toward lightly raced horses, but Justify and American Pharoah were FREAKS. If you think this one qualifies as that, then play him.
I thought the same thing watching the replay. He looked like a drunken teenager wondering down the stretch. I was going to play a box with him but now I decided to play Sir Winston and Master Fencer on top in some exotics in hope of an upset with the same 2 plus 4 underneath. I may not even have Intrepid underneath but not sure yet. I like Bourbon War better even though he has taken my money too often already.
You and I often see things the same way. Glad it wasn't my imagination the bad way he ran. If he had been carrying 126 I could have forgiven it, like I did for horses in the Derby. But to run that bad and be carrying light weight....... I don't think Intrepid will be on my trifecta at all at this point. Not after thinking about what I just said. I'd rather take my chances with a horse I don't have enough data on, than one I do have data on and the data isn't good.
Bourbon War is an interesting horse. Every time he doesn't run well, his odds are low. Maybe this time he gets it right.
plus he's getting blinkers ...... I guess johnny v's idea. ugh
I prefer the other Pletcher but find it interesting that Johny V picked Intrepid Heart.
I'm taking a stand and going with Tacitus, despite my dislike of Mott's smugness re the whole KD debacle. Thus, here is my $1 Superfecta bet:
9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 2
9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 2
9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 2
I really liked Everfast, a lot, but for some reason I thought Joel would ride him. He rode him in the Preakness to 2nd. Not sure why Saez is on him instead of Rosario. Does anyone know why?? Of course, Rosario's on Sir Winston. To me, what happened to Saez in the KD is a bad omen; despite this feeling, I'm letting go of Sir Winston (in favor of Intrepid Heart), and still playing Everfast.
Rosario decided to ride Sir Winston,therefore opening up the mount on Everfast
Gerh said...I prefer the other Pletcher but find it interesting that Johny V picked Intrepid Heart.
Johnny V. has ridden Intrepid Heart, the only jockey for Intrepid Heart, since his maiden race at Oaklawn in 2018.
So not sure what you are saying, actually. Are you sure he was actually given a choice? Or did Pletcher just decide to ask him to keep on the horse because the horse has never been ridden by another jockey.
Knowing how agents/jockey/trainer arrangements work, unless we are privy to all that, this idea that jockey *pick* horses is not always accurate.
I would've bet him in the Derby as the Tapit in 4th, and I keyed him 2nd/3rd in the Preakness, but Bourbon War seems really up against it. Horses who skip the Derby and run poorly in the Preakness do not tend to reverse form in the Belmont.
Since the points system began, non-Derby runners have finished in the Belmont superfecta a total of five times (20.8% of the spots), but have comprised 37.3% of the entrants. IV of 0.55, a negative correlation.