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I thought the same thing watching the replay. He looked like a drunken teenager wondering down the stretch. I was going to play a box with him but now I decided to play Sir Winston and Master Fencer on top in some exotics in hope of an upset with the same 2 plus 4 underneath. I may not even have Intrepid underneath but not sure yet. I like Bourbon War better even though he has taken my money too often already.
You and I often see things the same way. Glad it wasn't my imagination the bad way he ran. If he had been carrying 126 I could have forgiven it, like I did for horses in the Derby. But to run that bad and be carrying light weight....... I don't think Intrepid will be on my trifecta at all at this point. Not after thinking about what I just said. I'd rather take my chances with a horse I don't have enough data on, than one I do have data on and the data isn't good.
Bourbon War is an interesting horse. Every time he doesn't run well, his odds are low. Maybe this time he gets it right.
plus he's getting blinkers ...... I guess johnny v's idea. ugh
I prefer the other Pletcher but find it interesting that Johny V picked Intrepid Heart.
I'm taking a stand and going with Tacitus, despite my dislike of Mott's smugness re the whole KD debacle. Thus, here is my $1 Superfecta bet:
9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 2
9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 2
9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 2
I really liked Everfast, a lot, but for some reason I thought Joel would ride him. He rode him in the Preakness to 2nd. Not sure why Saez is on him instead of Rosario. Does anyone know why?? Of course, Rosario's on Sir Winston. To me, what happened to Saez in the KD is a bad omen; despite this feeling, I'm letting go of Sir Winston (in favor of Intrepid Heart), and still playing Everfast.
Rosario decided to ride Sir Winston,therefore opening up the mount on Everfast
Gerh said...I prefer the other Pletcher but find it interesting that Johny V picked Intrepid Heart.
Johnny V. has ridden Intrepid Heart, the only jockey for Intrepid Heart, since his maiden race at Oaklawn in 2018.
So not sure what you are saying, actually. Are you sure he was actually given a choice? Or did Pletcher just decide to ask him to keep on the horse because the horse has never been ridden by another jockey.
Knowing how agents/jockey/trainer arrangements work, unless we are privy to all that, this idea that jockey *pick* horses is not always accurate.
I would've bet him in the Derby as the Tapit in 4th, and I keyed him 2nd/3rd in the Preakness, but Bourbon War seems really up against it. Horses who skip the Derby and run poorly in the Preakness do not tend to reverse form in the Belmont.
Since the points system began, non-Derby runners have finished in the Belmont superfecta a total of five times (20.8% of the spots), but have comprised 37.3% of the entrants. IV of 0.55, a negative correlation.
cubs.fan said...Horses who skip the Derby and run poorly in the Preakness do not tend to reverse form in the Belmont.
I don't disagree with your negative correlation remark based on statistics. It's not always form. Its that many horses spend a large % of their careers, here in the U.S., running at the WRONG distance. Because we don't card enough long distance races. Or, they don't like certain surfaces, tracks or the weather. I look carefully at these things esp. when horses are doing "something new" which may benefit them......or not.