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Belmont Stakes   Triple Crown

Started 5/26/19 by Oldbettowin; 14726 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/6/19

You and I often see things the same way.  Glad it wasn't my imagination the bad way he ran.   If he had been carrying 126 I could have forgiven it, like I did for horses in the Derby.   But to run that bad and be carrying light weight....... I don't think Intrepid will be on my trifecta at all at this point.  Not after thinking about what I just said.   I'd rather take my chances with a horse I don't have enough data on, than one I do have data on and the data isn't good. 

Bourbon War is an interesting horse.  Every time he doesn't run well, his odds are low.  Maybe this time he gets it right.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/6/19

plus he's getting blinkers ...... I guess johnny v's idea.  ugh 

Gerh

From: Gerh

6/6/19

I prefer the other Pletcher but find it interesting that Johny V picked Intrepid Heart.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

6/6/19

I'm taking a stand and going with Tacitus, despite my dislike of Mott's smugness re the whole KD debacle.   Thus, here is my $1 Superfecta bet:

10

9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 2

9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 2

9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 2

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

6/6/19

I really liked Everfast, a lot, but for some reason I thought Joel would ride him.  He rode him in the Preakness to 2nd.  Not sure why Saez is on him instead of Rosario.  Does anyone know why??  Of course, Rosario's on Sir Winston.  To me, what happened to Saez in the KD is a bad omen; despite this feeling, I'm letting go of Sir Winston (in favor of Intrepid Heart), and still playing Everfast.  

Gerh

From: Gerh

6/6/19

Rosario decided to ride Sir Winston,therefore opening up the mount on Everfast

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/6/19

Gerh said...

I prefer the other Pletcher but find it interesting that Johny V picked Intrepid Heart.

Johnny V. has ridden Intrepid Heart, the only jockey for Intrepid Heart, since his maiden race at Oaklawn in 2018.   

So not sure what you are saying, actually.   Are you sure he was actually given a choice?  Or did Pletcher just decide to ask him to keep on the horse because the horse has never been ridden by another jockey.

Knowing how agents/jockey/trainer arrangements work, unless we are privy to all that, this idea that jockey *pick* horses is not always accurate.

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

6/6/19

I would've bet him in the Derby as the Tapit in 4th, and I keyed him 2nd/3rd in the Preakness, but Bourbon War seems really up against it. Horses who skip the Derby and run poorly in the Preakness do not tend to reverse form in the Belmont.

Since the points system began, non-Derby runners have finished in the Belmont superfecta a total of five times (20.8% of the spots), but have comprised 37.3% of the entrants. IV of 0.55, a negative correlation.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/6/19

cubs.fan said...

Horses who skip the Derby and run poorly in the Preakness do not tend to reverse form in the Belmont.

 

I don't disagree with your negative correlation remark based on statistics.   It's not always form.  Its that many horses spend a large % of their careers, here in the U.S.,  running at the WRONG distance.  Because we don't card enough long distance races.  Or, they don't like certain surfaces, tracks or the weather.  I look carefully at these things esp. when horses are doing "something new" which may benefit them......or not.  



 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/6/19

I’m taking a pass on four of them, some of which seem to be pretty well liked here:

Joevia—too slow for an E6 type.  He might be in front after a furlong but it won’t last fur long.

Everfast—returns to earth.

Master Fencer—too slow; possibly regresses.

Sir Winston—too slow for an E/P0.

That leaves me six, which I have ranked War of Will-Tacitus-Spinoff-Tax-Bourbon War-Intrepid Heart.  I wouldn’t bet it that way.  In fact I probably won’t bet it at all but if I do I’ll probably put Spinoff on top.  He looks to me like he’s going to be in front, not Joevia.

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