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cubs.fan said...Horses who skip the Derby and run poorly in the Preakness do not tend to reverse form in the Belmont.
I don't disagree with your negative correlation remark based on statistics. It's not always form. Its that many horses spend a large % of their careers, here in the U.S., running at the WRONG distance. Because we don't card enough long distance races. Or, they don't like certain surfaces, tracks or the weather. I look carefully at these things esp. when horses are doing "something new" which may benefit them......or not.
I’m taking a pass on four of them, some of which seem to be pretty well liked here:
Joevia—too slow for an E6 type. He might be in front after a furlong but it won’t last fur long.
Everfast—returns to earth.
Master Fencer—too slow; possibly regresses.
Sir Winston—too slow for an E/P0.
That leaves me six, which I have ranked War of Will-Tacitus-Spinoff-Tax-Bourbon War-Intrepid Heart. I wouldn’t bet it that way. In fact I probably won’t bet it at all but if I do I’ll probably put Spinoff on top. He looks to me like he’s going to be in front, not Joevia.
Perhaps I'll throw $20 on Spinoff to win. It's been a weird year so if Spinoff wins, it would sort of make sense!
Why though? Why would he dump Everfast?
Or it could be that Intrepid Heart is the preferred horse. I believe that Pletcher gives Johnny V. first dibs on horses from his barn, irrespective of whether the jockey has a history with the horse.
Apollo with 3 races and not much foundation, i agree with that part and a bad S/ BMS nick for the
Belmont, saying that i think he will be a good horse.
The reason I'm saying anything is if you watch the start of that race with that bad stumble
at the start, i think that had a lot to do with him racing like a drunken sailor and it made him look worse.
I would've bet him in the Derby as the Tapit in 4th, and I keyed him 2nd/3rd in the Preakness, but Bourbon War seems really up against it. Horses who skip the Derby and run poorly in the Preakness do not tend to reverse form in the Belmont.
Since the points system began, non-Derby runners have finished in the Belmont superfecta a total of five times (20.8% of the spots), but have comprised 37.3% of the entrants. IV of 0.55, a negative correlation.
Bourbon War had first time blinks in the Preakness and had also been off for 49 days. That's a long time. Maybe he hated blinks. Maybe he hated the track. Maybe 1-1/2 is his best distance. At any rate, I'm thinking MAYBE he got something out of this race. I like him.
Tacitus was technically 4th in the Derby, (which is where I had him) but due to the DQ he got elevated to 3rd. (which killed my ticket because I had him 4th). Not sure how running 4th in the Derby (and winning the Wood --- well you have to go all the way back to Empire Maker to find a Belmont winner which was 16 years ago. Then you have to go back another 14 years to find the next Belmont winner who won the Wood Memorial. So, 2 horses in 30 years. Wood is not a key race for the Belmont.
WHen is the last time a horse who ran 4th in the Derby won the Belmont? I know there must be one somewhere....
BUT---- you know me. In these big races, I go for the gusto. I'm not looking to have a winner at 9/5 or 3/5...I can play exotocs like that all week any day of the week at 15 other tracks in every day races. Not excited about getting a $13.60 exacta like in 2015. :)
I sit looking at my derby superfecta ticket on my twinspires account history......it was a straight wager with ONE horse in each spot, cheapo for $1 total. If I had not put Tacitus in 4th, I'd have $51K right now. :) But my side bets on country house and CoH saved me big time.
Anyway, that's the only kind of betting I want to do in the TC races. Jeronimo! type bets.
Winners of Belmont usually have certain dosage profiles, and I think I will stick with those. That would be Bourbon War, Master Fencer, Sir Winston, Spinoff (and Intrepid Heart who I don't like at all). I will figure out which ones I like and play with some of the 2 favs and maybe throw tax in there somewhere.
Getting blinks. Stumbled out of the gate. Plus he was favorite in that race. Johnny v -- Jockey over routes 31% win. Mike Smith on Bourbon War gets 33% BW also removes blinks. Blinkers on/off is a good angle. I'm feeling pretty good on my Tapit theory. Extra bonus -- had some success in this race cashing tickets. Only other speed horse is Spinoff and Joevia. Spinoff is Pletcher horse and I can't see a Shanghai Bobby offspring winning the Belmont or doing well.
I worked up the jockey thing, Interestingly JV wins has a stellar record on most BEL races he rides in, but in the Belmont Stakes he only has a 9% win rate in the Belmont Stakes, compared to other rides who have anywhere from 25% to 14% win rate in the Belmont stakes.......as a matter of fact, when he entered the 2007 Belmont stakes he was 0-for-21 in TC races.
.Leparoux has ridden Bel stakes 4 times, not in top % but he is "hot" right now.......I always have to look at jocks and trainers who get hot.