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I would've bet him in the Derby as the Tapit in 4th, and I keyed him 2nd/3rd in the Preakness, but Bourbon War seems really up against it. Horses who skip the Derby and run poorly in the Preakness do not tend to reverse form in the Belmont.
Since the points system began, non-Derby runners have finished in the Belmont superfecta a total of five times (20.8% of the spots), but have comprised 37.3% of the entrants. IV of 0.55, a negative correlation.
Bourbon War had first time blinks in the Preakness and had also been off for 49 days. That's a long time. Maybe he hated blinks. Maybe he hated the track. Maybe 1-1/2 is his best distance. At any rate, I'm thinking MAYBE he got something out of this race. I like him.
Tacitus was technically 4th in the Derby, (which is where I had him) but due to the DQ he got elevated to 3rd. (which killed my ticket because I had him 4th). Not sure how running 4th in the Derby (and winning the Wood --- well you have to go all the way back to Empire Maker to find a Belmont winner which was 16 years ago. Then you have to go back another 14 years to find the next Belmont winner who won the Wood Memorial. So, 2 horses in 30 years. Wood is not a key race for the Belmont.
WHen is the last time a horse who ran 4th in the Derby won the Belmont? I know there must be one somewhere....
BUT---- you know me. In these big races, I go for the gusto. I'm not looking to have a winner at 9/5 or 3/5...I can play exotocs like that all week any day of the week at 15 other tracks in every day races. Not excited about getting a $13.60 exacta like in 2015. :)
I sit looking at my derby superfecta ticket on my twinspires account history......it was a straight wager with ONE horse in each spot, cheapo for $1 total. If I had not put Tacitus in 4th, I'd have $51K right now. :) But my side bets on country house and CoH saved me big time.
Anyway, that's the only kind of betting I want to do in the TC races. Jeronimo! type bets.
Winners of Belmont usually have certain dosage profiles, and I think I will stick with those. That would be Bourbon War, Master Fencer, Sir Winston, Spinoff (and Intrepid Heart who I don't like at all). I will figure out which ones I like and play with some of the 2 favs and maybe throw tax in there somewhere.
Getting blinks. Stumbled out of the gate. Plus he was favorite in that race. Johnny v -- Jockey over routes 31% win. Mike Smith on Bourbon War gets 33% BW also removes blinks. Blinkers on/off is a good angle. I'm feeling pretty good on my Tapit theory. Extra bonus -- had some success in this race cashing tickets. Only other speed horse is Spinoff and Joevia. Spinoff is Pletcher horse and I can't see a Shanghai Bobby offspring winning the Belmont or doing well.
I worked up the jockey thing, Interestingly JV wins has a stellar record on most BEL races he rides in, but in the Belmont Stakes he only has a 9% win rate in the Belmont Stakes, compared to other rides who have anywhere from 25% to 14% win rate in the Belmont stakes.......as a matter of fact, when he entered the 2007 Belmont stakes he was 0-for-21 in TC races.
.Leparoux has ridden Bel stakes 4 times, not in top % but he is "hot" right now.......I always have to look at jocks and trainers who get hot.
That race might have put some bottom into him with how JR had him run so much farther than everyone else, might have actually been the plan.
As for the jockeys, the only one that got a real upgrade imo is Spinoff. That wasn’t a factor in why I like him but it sure doesn’t hurt.
There's this thing I've noticed where often Rosario & Castellano end up "following each other". Thus, I will play a 6/7 7/6 somewhere . . .
Oldbettowin said...I’ve got Everfast down for a pretty significant regression in this race,
Hunch bet for me, but Calumet.
Due dilligence requires doing the research on horses they bring to the BELMONT STAKES and how many run ITM.
That is why I like him, unless you think a 71% ITM figure is *bad*.
But yes, he could regresss for sure. And Calumet has new owners since I took that stat
P.S. That said, not sure I'll be using him as there are better in this race. We'll see after I check my bankroll!
Does it matter if they bred him or if they just bought him at the yearling auction?
I did a big edit on message 92 and filled the angles in..
Oldbettowin said...Does it matter if they bred him or if they just bought him at the yearling auction?
Yes, that's why I said Calumet doesn't have the same owners since I took that stat. ;) And I didn't list Everfast as a homebred in the preakness or the derby. Of course it matters, but they still have good bloodstock people who know what they're doing there.
Lukas gets a lot of horses from them, and he has a pretty good eye for good horses, despite that he is no longer the force to be reckoned with that he once was, I trust his *eye* for horseflesh.
A few years ago I made a list of every horse who ran ITM in the TC races and their auction prices. Usually cheap horses don't win this race, but then you have some who do like Palace Malice, Victory Gallop, etc. I'll be glad to PM the document to you sometime. I have one for this year too, but I can't find it under all the paper on my desk LOL From memory, intrepid, bourbon and WoW were pricey.
Tax (gelding), spinoff, master fencer and tacitus are homebreds.......any horse outside of all those were *pretty cheap*.
BTW, Tax is running with plastic shoes.
I read thru all the veterinary reports.