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Oldbettowin said...I guess something like whether a horse was cheap or not would mostly be in the eye of the beholder.
We were talking about auction prices, right? Not sure what that has to do with "eye of the beholder". :) I just copy them straight out of equibase.
Meanwhile, undercard is going well. Made me realize my investment in Belmont won't be very large. The odds seem kinda low for the kind of risk we are taking.
Not to belabor the point but I was just using one of your examples Palace Malice to try to understand where you were coming from. Most people wouldn’t consider anything about him to be cheap as he was bred by royalty (well not literally royalty but Will Farish was US ambassador to the UK) and sold to Dogwood for 200k.
It’s been a crazy Triple Crown season, and I haven’t cashed on either of the first two legs, so let’s see if we can go out with a bang. After all, 2017 was my only other season (since I started capping TC races in 2010) that I didn’t cash in at least 1 of the 3 races, so I’d like to avoid another goose egg.
In this year’s Belmont, after I tallied up points for all of the different pedigree and performance factors that I’ve learned to respect, my scores were clustered into tiers. My top contenders are Tacitus and Spinoff. After them I like Tax and Sir Winston the best. And then my fringe contenders, just for the bottom of a tri, would be Master Fencer and Intrepid Heart. Accordingly, I structured my tickets as shown below.
Total wager is $62. Enjoy the race, and thanks to all of the good people of this forum for sharing your thoughts with me this spring. Let’s do it again next TC season!
Cheers and good luck,
6, 10 with 4, 6, 7, 10
6, 10 with
4, 6, 7, 10 with
3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10
Ive had Tacitus slotted as Belmont horse since I first looked a his pedigree. Also playing Sir Winston., putting MF in 3rd and Wow 4th, will play small exotics with tax, the the previous four mostly straight. mixing up the top two in top posititions and bottom two in bottom positions.
I'm also playing Tacitus, along with Intrepid Heart, as top 2, wheeling the rest in 3rd for the tri....placing a saver bet on Spinoff for the win, as his price warrants it. A possible wire-to-wire..
Nicely done! Hopefully Raes has something on it too; he was all over Winston and Tacitus.
Perfect trip for Tax, no excuse. Put a US Grant on him to win.
Had the 6-3 exacta in the Woody Stephens, thought maybe the Steward gods would gift me one... but no.
Wintertrian said...sorry didn't finish my post about Joevia. If you look at his works at Belmont, back in Jan, Feb, and March, his workouts were "sharper" than Tacitus and Spinoffs this week, so yeah, he's *fast* on the BEL surface.
....and indeed, he was.
I didn't play a tri or superfecta so I wouldn't have had Joevia but his works at BEL ended up foreshadowing his finish ITM.
I was trying to talk some guys at the track into betting the Awesome Agains......his dam was lightning fast....track was playing right for that..
Wintertrian said...IF you think it's a jockey's race, then you would have to play Lezcano wouldn't you? He's the top rider at BEL
I hope somebody did.
Wintertrian said...Winners of Belmont usually have certain dosage profiles, and I think I will stick with those. That would be Bourbon War, Master Fencer, Sir Winston, Spinoff (and Intrepid Heart who I don't like at all). I will figure out which ones I like and play with some of the 2 favs
Well I got the race right but didn't get rich, since Tacitus brought down the value of my exacta which is the only kind of wager i made.