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Belmont Stakes   Triple Crown

Started May-26 by Oldbettowin; 10576 views.
Gerh

From: Gerh

May-27

Might throw Intrepid Heart in with that Homebred box and make a pretty decent 5 horse box.

BTW,hope the move went well and you are settling into your new place

In reply toRe: msg 15
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-27

Gerh said...

Might throw Intrepid Heart in with that Homebred box and make a pretty decent 5 horse box.

BTW,hope the move went well and you are settling into your new place

Thanks, place is smaller and closer to the track.  I like it.  Still exhausted though, moving at my age takes a lot out of ya. 

I haven't decided what to do with Intrepid Heart yet.  I can tell you that "cheap horses" don't win the Belmont usually, and his auction price makes him a contender in that respect.  ;)  Having a hard time separating him from Sir Winston. ????   
I know his numbers "look" like Tonalist's, but they actually aren't on the mare side at all.  So why do you like him better than say, Sir Winston? Interested in your thoughts.

Master Fencer ran the derby w/out LASIX.  I believe he was the only horse in the race who didn't get Lasix.  Gotta respect that.  Dead last coming to the stretch and made up a ton of ground, almost unbelievable amount, while taking a whole lot lot lot of slop / mud in face.  Love him but also love his connections/trainer.  Really nice people.

Gerh

From: Gerh

May-27

Would prefer a different jockey.Not sure how effective Leparoux will be at Belmont.He usually rides closers pretty well but Belmont Park is a different animal

In reply toRe: msg 17
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-27

I edited and added to my post, had some ?? for ya.

Gerh

From: Gerh

May-27

For the Belmont,Tapit and Pletcher are playable angles.Intrepid Heart also has Buckpasser angle.Sir Winston is a great closer but may need a faster pace than he’ll get here

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-27

Subject: belmont winners tf & conduit 1867-2018

 
belmont winners tf & conduit
1867-2018
-

family 1-(14)
1869-Fenian-1a
1969-Arts And Letters-1c-Chit Chat
1971-Pass Catcher-1c-Chit Chat
1981-Summing-1g-Springtime
1954-High Gun-1h-Noontide 
2018-Justify-1h-Noontide

1944-Bounding Home-1k-Reine De Naples
1972-Riva Ridge-1k-Reine De Naples
1968-Stage Door Johnny-1L-Hot water Bag
1984-Swale-1n-Popinjay
...[Message truncated]
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Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-27

I used to use the mare family angle but found it is just "too broad" to help much?  There's 3 1-n's in here and 2 8-fs , then the "usual" 1x doxa, (which has become an overplayed angle at times)-----plus is it my imagination or is most of the field kinda *turfy* based on pedigree charts?

then there's always the possibility that a horse like Tapwrit, Creator, Ruler on Ice, etc.   is going to be the first conduit in his family.  :)  

 

In reply toRe: msg 21
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-27

BTW, smartyslew, I did use the family thing in the KY derby as part of my point system.  that's how War of Will came out so far towards top.  I don't know if it works as good for belmont as for derby, do you know?

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-28

Tacitus is 2-1 and WoW is 7/2 right now according to CBS sports?   

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-29

Looking back at previous Belmonts, I see that at the 2/3 mark(mile), you better be close. At a mile and half, closers will hang. Pace setters usually hang around for a piece because of that and the slow early fractions. I still like Sir Winston, but he has to be closer which I think he can be if the fractions play to par. Twenty-four second quarters up to a mile would be "fast", so he could be within 3 or 4 lengths off the pace. There are no speed horses entered so far. I expect a slow race with a "sprint" to the finish.

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