Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 435
    MEMBERS
  • 21593
    MESSAGES
  • 0
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Belmont Stakes   Triple Crown

Started 5/26/19 by Oldbettowin; 15185 views.
In reply toRe: msg 68
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

hope they go with the trainer opinion on Tax. He is such a beautiful horse, would hate to see him ruined running this if he's not 100%

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

Oldbettowin said...

’d never seen a horse with muscle on top of muscle like that, it wasn’t natural.

You said a mouthful there. ;) 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/19

I screwed up in message 75. I forgot Ruler on ice had almahmoud in his inbreeding
i didn't recall that and used information from a older page, sorry.

for sure he is the only one since 2000 and when i have time i will check earlier to make sure
this is the only one.

2011 belmont 

1st mr p/alydar14a 
RULER ON ICE G, 2008 DP = 6-1-9-0-0 (16) DI = 2.56   CD = 0.81
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
ALMAHMOUD da/g 7s x 7s x 8s x 7d natalma, cosmah  2d
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/3/19

Better Than Honour had TWO offspring win it but she’s not the conduit, that’s Torpenhow.  Or am I doing that wrong?

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/3/19

I don’t know.  When I first looked at the probables Spinoff immediately jumped out for several reasons but then when I look at the pp’s its all Tacitus and WoW.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

Spinoff stood out to me too based on both sire side and female side profiles.    If you want a good longshot on your ticket to my mind I would include him.  I may even have a ticket using him as the key.  :)  WoW is a class call.  Even if I don't like a horse's numbers for a race, if they are the class of the field, I can't see not including them?   For Tacitus, I just don't think he has the right numbers for Belmont.  Then again, many of the Taptit's do not, but they have tapit-belmont-magic, so I never know whether to use them or not.  LOL  

As for the conduits, sorry, I was confusing that with Bruce Lowe's division of the females into families, but I see that was not included in the analyses.       

I keep an "angles that work" sheet going, so every year I am tracking what angles appear to have the most significance.  Unfortunately, some of them, like Dr. Roman's performance figures, were very powerful, but we don't have them anymore.  :(    There were years where you could have used just 3 or 4 angles and hit the superfecta or trifecta. 
For instance  in 2017, you could have just used the PPs and brisnet distance figs for the trifecta.  
In 2010, all you really needed was 3 angles:  Trainer won belmont, horse worked sharp or ran well at Belmont, and horse had previous belmont winners somewhere in their pedigree.   If you used those, and only those, you had not only the trifecta, but the superfecta as well that year. 
You could have just boxed them (and icebox would have been your only non-itm "extra" there.)   If you wanted to properly place/tier them, then you had to look closer, i.e. First Dude was coming in off very little rest, there was little chance he was going to run the race of his life and top his other figs that day.  (and he did run 3rd).  

Over the years I just got rid of the truly difficult more "woo woo" angles, because it's a PITA to do them and oftentimes, it's just too hidden to track down.   It really depends on the amount of time I have during the time and year when race is run.  12F+ is a tough category esp in the U.S. racing universe

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

The hard part is figuring out WHICH angles are going to be significant *this year*.   I sluiced thru my records and I think I have a playable 5 horse box.   If I add in Everfast (really only a hunch play since he is not coming out well on most angles) That would make 6 horses.  And using him also requires that I leave out Tacitus on my trifecta.  Which I think I'm sorta okay with.  ;) 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/3/19

I’ve got Everfast down for a pretty significant regression in this race, such was the size of his Preakness “jump up”.  But with only 9 or 10 horses in the race he could hit the super.  Right now I’m thinking about just betting (if I bet) on a Spiniff-Intrepid Heart exacta box and maybe a little on Spin-off to win if he’s over 8 or 10 to 1, which he should be.  And maybe a couple of savers on WoW and Tacitus.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

Oldbettowin said...

I’ve got Everfast down for a pretty significant regression in this race, such was the size of his Preakness “jump up”.

Yes, I can see that and again, he is more of a hunch / sentimental thing like Win Win Win was for me.  Some horses, I just look at their photos and find they "make my heart happy" and I have no way to explain the why's of this.  Some people had that with bodexpress, I did not. 

In reply toRe: msg 90
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

I "think" winner comes from here---IF you don't want to play the chalk --but still waiting on PPs to fill in rest of my angles.  Last 2 listed I'm really not sure about but I have a *weird* formula I use and they made it  into that framework:
Spinoff
Master Fencer 
Sir Winston 
Intrepid Heart
Tacitus 
Everfast

TOP