Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 433
    MEMBERS
  • 21460
    MESSAGES
  • 0
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Belmont Stakes   Triple Crown

Started 5/26/19 by Oldbettowin; 14802 views.
In reply toRe: msg 90
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

I "think" winner comes from here---IF you don't want to play the chalk --but still waiting on PPs to fill in rest of my angles.  Last 2 listed I'm really not sure about but I have a *weird* formula I use and they made it  into that framework:
Spinoff
Master Fencer 
Sir Winston 
Intrepid Heart
Tacitus 
Everfast

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/19

11 of the last 14 Belmont winners have Princequillo in a passing position

In reply toRe: msg 92
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/19

ast Q on Dirt 11/8 mile or longer.last race only
25.39 or faster-2 pts with tt
tacitus 23.80, everfast  23.72, master fencer 24.23( real slow 6f time 1;14.57
WOW 24.99, Bourbon War 25.32( hard to believe)
Sir Winston 23.33, Intrepid heart 24.68
 -
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

BTW, I liked Spinoff in the derby somewhat, but he either didn't like "that" mud at CDX, or he just doesn't love mud.  Something to think about, not sure I would play him if track comes up muddy, but I do like him.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

smartyslew said...

11 of the last 14 Belmont winners have Princequillo in a passing position

Well that's good as all except for one horse that would "match" my post above (winners come from here).  I wasn't, however, using that angle when I posted my list.  ;)   Like I said, I have my own weird angle(s) that usually give me similar results though, but I'm glad to have most all of them in my above post, despite that I didn't use the actual princequillo angle to arrive at them......but happy that they have merit under THAT angle as well.  That sort of gives me more confidence that I'm in the right ballpark. 
I used to do a big ol' chart and map out all the angles we have used here over the years, but my approach is way simpler now, I only use about 6 or so angles that I personally like, and if I'm wrong I'm wrong.  I just do NOT have the time or energy anymore to do 30+ angles or the research that involves.  

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

6/3/19

I didn’t like him at all in the derby, and Pletcher said he didn’t care for the going—and he may not have, but I thought he would regress off his race in Louisiana.  One thing I like to look at in the Brisnet pp’s are the CR and RR ratings.  If you look at his, he ran a 232 (CR and RR combined) in August then came back in February with a 231 before Boom! He runs a 237 in the La. Derby.  I’ve found that anything over a 4 point jump almost always signals a regression in the next outing and sure enough he ran a 233 in Louisville.  Same with Tax—230 in the Withers before a 236 in the Wood.  He ran a 234 in the derby.  It doesn’t tell you who’s getting ready to run a big race but it’s pretty good at telling you who probably isn’t.  

Look at Everfast:  228-232-231-231-231-238.  If he duplicates that Preakness run I’ll eat my hat lol.  But there’s exceptions to every rule as we all know and I’m the last person that would ever try to talk anyone off a horse :)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/19

He had a dream trip ducking inside when it opened up on the rail.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

Oldbettowin said...

It doesn’t tell you who’s getting ready to run a big race but it’s pretty good at telling you who probably isn’t.

Hey thanks for the info on CR and RR.  I always learn something from my fellow forum members every year. 

My original Belmont horses were going to be Country House and Game Winner.  I mean, even before the Derby, I thought they would be the best for this race.   So, really, not just one of my horses, but 2 of 'em aren't going to be running, so that left me quite *empty handed*. 

As for the above quoted line, it's 12F.   I can watch these horses all day long but really can't tell you who is going to gallop along completely RELAXED, and then respond to the "go button" in the stretch or coming around last turn.   

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/19

smartyslew said...

He had a dream trip ducking inside when it opened up on the rail.

Yes, well getting a "dream trip" is part and parcel of racing isn't it?   
Always Dreaming in the Derby.  
Super Saver's rail trip in the Derby (would he have won w/out Borel on board?) 
Exaggerator in his hug the rail dream trip in the Preakness (and he also lucked out and got his "mud" on that day)

Conversely, Classic Empire got "clobbered" at the start in his Derby, and if Lookin at Lucky hadn't drawn the #1 post, would he have won his Derby?

Every race is about positioning, yet when a horse that has long odds actually GETS positioning, he's always treated like a sucker afterwards, unless it's a post time favorite......then it's "talent" that got them there.   LOL  

Give me a true fighter any day.  Like Lookin' at Lee.  (I don't think anyone gave him credit for being the first horse in 20 years to hit the board from his Post position.... and he ran 2nd no less.)    And by the way, did you know that it is actually post #2 that has had the most trouble if you read thru every Derby chart for last 20 years? 


There were other jockeys in the Preakness who could have positioned their horses in the right spot.....and their horses might not have "ducked in" to run 2nd in the Preakness.   

What I've noticed is that when a short-odds horse does something like that, they are hailed as having "great turn of foot" and "champions".   But when a long odds outlier horse does it, its seen as an "abberation" and the horse is looked at as a sucker after that. 



Just so you guys know, I know Everfast has crappy numbers.  I am not picking him to win the belmont.  It's just that every year, I "throw a horse I like" onto my ticket, regardless of odds, etc. simply because they spoke to me on some level.    Wish I had done that with MTB in the Deby, Ruler on Ice in the Belmont, etc.   LOL  

TOP