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PARX Derby   Handicapping

Started 9/13/19 by DogsUp; 1520 views.
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

9/17/19

Max will miss the Pennsylvania Derby due to colic!

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

9/17/19

Holly Cow! Bad news for the track handle...good news for other connections. 

On Haskell day, Monmouth had to cancel 6 races due to hot weather.

Two cards where pick 4 plans deteriorated toot sweet. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

9/17/19

severe case of colic and a displacement of the large colon   --- sounds very serious for Max.  Glad they got him to doc because this is the kind of thing that kills.    What a shame.  :(

In reply toRe: msg 12
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

9/18/19

Field was already "short"......now it's shorter. you don't be getting fair odds at all on such a small field.   Mr. Money is the wise guy horse being shouted from the rooftops.   

I see absolutely no point why anyone would bet on the race.    

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

9/18/19

Hi Winter...

2011 California Chrome ran the following (below) after winning two Triple Crown races. With the exit of Max you are spot on that the betting combos both vertical and horizontal become deluted with small field. Albeit all races in the card still have to be run.

4th Belmont Stakes / Dead Heat

6th Parx.   $400 Pick 4 ~  @$2.00...Eight horse field with two local Parx stable colts running 7th & 8th. The Pick 4 pool was half million, pick 6 was $16,000.

3rd Breeders Cup

And ran very well and winning thereafter

(The 2nd betting fav won in 2011 Parx Derby, after an out of performance at Saratoga. That was Bayern in the Travers as the favorite.)

The running surface is kinda unlike other track surfaces. I don't play/follow this track.

Hoofnote: With Max out in a short field there may, may be , some vig or juice for the bettor in Pick 4 by the eveness of the Parx meager size field; against the one leg to go short selections in the Cotillion, and spotting more selections in the other two legs.

Best to All (d)

Quote of the day "When there's a lot of money on the table..strange things happen."

  • Edited September 18, 2019 12:11 pm  by  DogsUp
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

9/18/19

After viewing the odds, might have to resort to an exacta of Spun to Run and Shanghai Superfly....local flavor, seriously, looks like any of these can win this. Improbable and Money could burn out on the front end and set up for a presser or closer.

Realistically, Improbable,WOW and Money, trifecta.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

9/19/19

ChiefsCrown said...

Realistically, Improbable,WOW and Money, trifecta.

I'm not playing but Improbable, War of Will and Spun To Run.  

zowcownow

From: zowcownow

9/19/19

ChiefsCrown said:

might have to resort to an exacta of Spun to Run and Shanghai Superfly....local flavor,

Shanghai Superfly is bigtime overmatched.  Must be a sizeable payout for last or next to last.  Anyone know the payout numbers. 

I have some "good vibes" for Spun to Run. I've watched the Haskell and I can't see the steady at the 7/8 "fake running line".  He does make a nice charge and goes wide into the turn.   I give the local horse a bigtime upgrade with Paco in the irons.    I was never a big Hard Spun fan but I do remember he tended to be into the mix of all his races.   8-1 probably drops to 4-1 at post time.   I'd love to see an upset.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

9/19/19

DogsUp said...

A no go for Code of Honor ~ Jockey Club Gold Cup ~ a week later against older

Honor's trainer Shug even says PARX surface has some runners go good and some not so good...me too!

CoH is going same route as Orb.   Shug seems to like that campaign.    Horse has already run 1st and 2nd at BEL.....

The PA Derby was all about the match race between Max and War of Will, due to West's previous $5mil dare.  And now even w/out the dare $$ it is not going to happen.  

In reply toRe: msg 18
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

9/20/19

Improbable just doesn't get the job done.

Mr. Money a Grade 1 he has never won.

War of Will add shoe glue ons ~ tongue tie down, runs for fun. Delta.

  • Edited September 20, 2019 2:09 pm  by  DogsUp
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