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PARX Derby   Handicapping

Started Sep-13 by DogsUp; 1318 views.
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-13

A four deep final betting odds winner in a race of this magnitude, calibre of PPs in a 'Pick 4'  finale leg, call it whatever you want. Delta, a lock, the colt still has to win it next Saturday.

This is about the play, the ticket construction.

Take a look at what the pick 4 played on Travers Day when American Pharoah ran 2nd. The 2 previous races were won by the favorites M/L and final betting. And these same two horse won the previous year in the same event.

$9,500.

The Pick 6 paid 5 of 6 for under $1,000 ~ Carry Over.

Hoofnote: There was a loose horse in Mr Money's  last at a mile and an eighth. Right from the gate. And heading the finish the jockey needed to navigate against what the mountless colt might do or go.

  • Edited September 13, 2019 8:37 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 1
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Sep-14

Love the Mr. Money angle to this race. Using him w/Improbable and Spun to Run in my trifecta. Only issue i'm worried about is Mr. Money getting into a speed dual with Max and finishing up the track.

Might throw in WOW in a super.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-15

Hi Chief... If Max and Mr. Money are anywhere in a Tri that payoff would not be substantial as compared to Mr. Money winning last leg of Pick 4 where the majority of the selections being top three and Mr. Money 4th or better.  Ergo, example say 60% used Max, and another 25 % used the next two or three, accordingly if Mr. Money wins, this is where the Great Mutiplier creates value in that Pick 4 above scenario.

One must also realize to handicap first three legs to include some handicapable longer horses.

Again, to mention the results above for American Pharoah's second in the Travers with the two preceding races leading into the Travers in a Pick 4, both were favs and won.

Winner Keen Ice was 5 deep in the betting.

Race 8Saratoga TB 8-29-2015

P#HorseJockeyWinPlace

Runhappy Edgar S. Prado$24.60$13.8

Race 9Saratoga TB 8-29-2015

P#HorseJockeyWinPlace

Private Zone Martin A. Pedroza$5.20 $3.50

Race 10Saratoga TB 8-29-2015

P# Horse Jockey Win Place
2 Flintshire (GB) Vincent Cheminaud $4.00 $2.80
In reply toRe: msg 5
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Sep-15

Dogs.....

I like Mr $$ to win this, also throwing in Spun To Run in the mix. Should be big odds, around 15-1, being overlooked. 

Cottillion......I like Jeltrin in this one. Burned some dineros for me earlier in her career, thinking she might be sitting on a big race.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-15

Draw for PX Derby Monday Sept 16..  Noonish.

In reply toRe: msg 7
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-17

Bummer....7 colt field, not nearly 10 to 14.. And Mr. Magic sits 3rd @ 4/1, Improbable 3/1 and Max @ 9/5.

War of Will is 5/1.

Others : Math Wizzard, Shanghai Superfly, Spun to Run. Maybe Math Wiz could get a piece of super if top ones fail.

  • Edited September 17, 2019 4:17 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 8
Gerh

From: Gerh

Sep-17

Down to 6 now.Maximum Security is out

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Sep-17

Max will miss the Pennsylvania Derby due to colic!

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-17

Holly Cow! Bad news for the track handle...good news for other connections. 

On Haskell day, Monmouth had to cancel 6 races due to hot weather.

Two cards where pick 4 plans deteriorated toot sweet. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-17

severe case of colic and a displacement of the large colon   --- sounds very serious for Max.  Glad they got him to doc because this is the kind of thing that kills.    What a shame.  :(

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