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PARX Derby   Handicapping

Started Sep-13 by DogsUp; 1371 views.

From: DogsUp


Hi Chief... If Max and Mr. Money are anywhere in a Tri that payoff would not be substantial as compared to Mr. Money winning last leg of Pick 4 where the majority of the selections being top three and Mr. Money 4th or better.  Ergo, example say 60% used Max, and another 25 % used the next two or three, accordingly if Mr. Money wins, this is where the Great Mutiplier creates value in that Pick 4 above scenario.

One must also realize to handicap first three legs to include some handicapable longer horses.

Again, to mention the results above for American Pharoah's second in the Travers with the two preceding races leading into the Travers in a Pick 4, both were favs and won.

Winner Keen Ice was 5 deep in the betting.

Race 8Saratoga TB 8-29-2015


Runhappy Edgar S. Prado$24.60$13.8

Race 9Saratoga TB 8-29-2015


Private Zone Martin A. Pedroza$5.20 $3.50

Race 10Saratoga TB 8-29-2015

P# Horse Jockey Win Place
2 Flintshire (GB) Vincent Cheminaud $4.00 $2.80
In reply toRe: msg 5

From: ChiefsCrown



I like Mr $$ to win this, also throwing in Spun To Run in the mix. Should be big odds, around 15-1, being overlooked. 

Cottillion......I like Jeltrin in this one. Burned some dineros for me earlier in her career, thinking she might be sitting on a big race.


From: DogsUp


Draw for PX Derby Monday Sept 16..  Noonish.

In reply toRe: msg 7

From: DogsUp


Bummer....7 colt field, not nearly 10 to 14.. And Mr. Magic sits 3rd @ 4/1, Improbable 3/1 and Max @ 9/5.

War of Will is 5/1.

Others : Math Wizzard, Shanghai Superfly, Spun to Run. Maybe Math Wiz could get a piece of super if top ones fail.

  • Edited September 17, 2019 4:17 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 8

From: Gerh


Down to 6 now.Maximum Security is out




Max will miss the Pennsylvania Derby due to colic!


From: DogsUp


Holly Cow! Bad news for the track handle...good news for other connections. 

On Haskell day, Monmouth had to cancel 6 races due to hot weather.

Two cards where pick 4 plans deteriorated toot sweet. 


From: Wintertrian


severe case of colic and a displacement of the large colon   --- sounds very serious for Max.  Glad they got him to doc because this is the kind of thing that kills.    What a shame.  :(

In reply toRe: msg 12

From: Wintertrian


Field was already "short" it's shorter. you don't be getting fair odds at all on such a small field.   Mr. Money is the wise guy horse being shouted from the rooftops.   

I see absolutely no point why anyone would bet on the race.    


From: DogsUp


Hi Winter...

2011 California Chrome ran the following (below) after winning two Triple Crown races. With the exit of Max you are spot on that the betting combos both vertical and horizontal become deluted with small field. Albeit all races in the card still have to be run.

4th Belmont Stakes / Dead Heat

6th Parx.   $400 Pick 4 ~  @$2.00...Eight horse field with two local Parx stable colts running 7th & 8th. The Pick 4 pool was half million, pick 6 was $16,000.

3rd Breeders Cup

And ran very well and winning thereafter

(The 2nd betting fav won in 2011 Parx Derby, after an out of performance at Saratoga. That was Bayern in the Travers as the favorite.)

The running surface is kinda unlike other track surfaces. I don't play/follow this track.

Hoofnote: With Max out in a short field there may, may be , some vig or juice for the bettor in Pick 4 by the eveness of the Parx meager size field; against the one leg to go short selections in the Cotillion, and spotting more selections in the other two legs.

Best to All (d)

Quote of the day "When there's a lot of money on the table..strange things happen."

  • Edited September 18, 2019 12:11 pm  by  DogsUp