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PARX Derby   Handicapping

Started Sep-13 by DogsUp; 1335 views.
In reply toRe: msg 7
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-17

Bummer....7 colt field, not nearly 10 to 14.. And Mr. Magic sits 3rd @ 4/1, Improbable 3/1 and Max @ 9/5.

War of Will is 5/1.

Others : Math Wizzard, Shanghai Superfly, Spun to Run. Maybe Math Wiz could get a piece of super if top ones fail.

  • Edited September 17, 2019 4:17 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 8
Gerh

From: Gerh

Sep-17

Down to 6 now.Maximum Security is out

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Sep-17

Max will miss the Pennsylvania Derby due to colic!

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-17

Holly Cow! Bad news for the track handle...good news for other connections. 

On Haskell day, Monmouth had to cancel 6 races due to hot weather.

Two cards where pick 4 plans deteriorated toot sweet. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-17

severe case of colic and a displacement of the large colon   --- sounds very serious for Max.  Glad they got him to doc because this is the kind of thing that kills.    What a shame.  :(

In reply toRe: msg 12
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-18

Field was already "short"......now it's shorter. you don't be getting fair odds at all on such a small field.   Mr. Money is the wise guy horse being shouted from the rooftops.   

I see absolutely no point why anyone would bet on the race.    

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Sep-18

Hi Winter...

2011 California Chrome ran the following (below) after winning two Triple Crown races. With the exit of Max you are spot on that the betting combos both vertical and horizontal become deluted with small field. Albeit all races in the card still have to be run.

4th Belmont Stakes / Dead Heat

6th Parx.   $400 Pick 4 ~  @$2.00...Eight horse field with two local Parx stable colts running 7th & 8th. The Pick 4 pool was half million, pick 6 was $16,000.

3rd Breeders Cup

And ran very well and winning thereafter

(The 2nd betting fav won in 2011 Parx Derby, after an out of performance at Saratoga. That was Bayern in the Travers as the favorite.)

The running surface is kinda unlike other track surfaces. I don't play/follow this track.

Hoofnote: With Max out in a short field there may, may be , some vig or juice for the bettor in Pick 4 by the eveness of the Parx meager size field; against the one leg to go short selections in the Cotillion, and spotting more selections in the other two legs.

Best to All (d)

Quote of the day "When there's a lot of money on the table..strange things happen."

  • Edited September 18, 2019 12:11 pm  by  DogsUp
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Sep-18

After viewing the odds, might have to resort to an exacta of Spun to Run and Shanghai Superfly....local flavor, seriously, looks like any of these can win this. Improbable and Money could burn out on the front end and set up for a presser or closer.

Realistically, Improbable,WOW and Money, trifecta.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Sep-19

ChiefsCrown said...

Realistically, Improbable,WOW and Money, trifecta.

I'm not playing but Improbable, War of Will and Spun To Run.  

zowcownow

From: zowcownow

Sep-19

ChiefsCrown said:

might have to resort to an exacta of Spun to Run and Shanghai Superfly....local flavor,

Shanghai Superfly is bigtime overmatched.  Must be a sizeable payout for last or next to last.  Anyone know the payout numbers. 

I have some "good vibes" for Spun to Run. I've watched the Haskell and I can't see the steady at the 7/8 "fake running line".  He does make a nice charge and goes wide into the turn.   I give the local horse a bigtime upgrade with Paco in the irons.    I was never a big Hard Spun fan but I do remember he tended to be into the mix of all his races.   8-1 probably drops to 4-1 at post time.   I'd love to see an upset.  

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