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I looked at the Vegas odds before the Post drawing and official track odds come Tuesday.
We have fav probably a come at 6/5=A. Next 3 incrementally M/Liners and most likely at post time=B. Others should, guestimation a cluster of runners some17/1 to 21/1..and then there is the rest bet by one day window visitors Selectively C.
But rhyming..the one left out, gets in. Invariably.
Citing a Derby like California Chrome's (owners even had a likeness in background) and got some soft horse PR. Public, no news, Tizzy as the Rock Hard Ten bet/key.
An A/C/B ticket would net @ 50 cents in the $800s.
A/B/B $75 _$90. At $2
This year predict some will leave the gate at 60/1 or more.
I knew it!!!
I've been thinking Tiz the Law would draw post 17. No runner in the Derby has won from gate 17/ saddle number.
And this year will have the new 20 stall gate.
What's it going to be?
Fav in the gate breaks the jinx
New gate breaks the jinx
New gate contributes to the jinx
The scratch of Art Collector is unfortunate. Thought the only one with PP to beat Tiz the Law. And if had run 2nd or 3rd create a dismal exotic return.
They/PPs are on official Derby site.
Also listed are featured race PPs each day leading up to KDY But have all entries before field selection and post draw
Derby will used a 20 stall starting gate
And now Art Collector is out.....my top choice, and one that I had at a generous 33-1. Tiz will break out wide, anything can happen I suppose. But the morning line of 3-5 may be the lowest of all time!
J J Castellano picks up his new Derby mount in Money Moves. Trainer Pletcher. Owner Robert La Penta substantial owner and would not put this 3 non graded or stakes race only, at a hip price $950,000 colt in as a vanity runner; or to get into the show. Albeit getting a stall in the new 20 gate has been a crunchy ladder.
BTW: All races run at NYRA are replay free. Last race for Money was Saratoga, July 25, Race 8 as fav. Ran 2nd. Bumped gate, 3 wide mile 136, 150ish 9fl. Muddy drying. Take the bump, wide at distance, add Castellano touch to find 2fl more in the colt. I didn't leave JJ the rider out with his scratched mount. And I'm leaving him in as a Rock Hard Ten rider.
Hoofnote: I 'assumed the same position when Keen Ice with Javier Castellano moved past American Pharoah, with Victor Espinoza, to win the Travers Stakes. (d)
DogsUp said...The once a year Derby player (and there is a ton of them) will have TizTLaw a Rock Hard Ten bet.
Sort of like once a year forum guests. :)
chroses said...Rock Hard Ten is one of the horses that was used to make the movie “Seabiscuit”
Interesting, C. Thanks for that little tidbit. I did not know that.
I wouldn't leave Tiz off my ticket but I don't think he has to go first.
I think Enforceable can run 2nd....reminds me a little bit of Firing Line.
Of course I have to play my infamous homebred exacta box, but there aren't many homebreds this year...only 3.
Finnick the Fierce
Looks like my homebred box just got a lot smaller w/out Art Collector.
I will add 2 horses to it and still play a 4-horse exacta box. Because.......my tradition insists on it. :)
According, we have substitute:
Max Player – Ricardo Santana, Jr. (Kentucky) – 60 pts.
And statistically and arguably one of the best all time riders and Hall of Famer. Further, at great sacrifice to his heavy rider commitments.
Caracaro – Javier Castellano 60 pts
And looks like Castellano got Money Moves now that Caracaro is out.
This might be a good time to write what jockey we would love to see win a KY Derby. I now there is someone here besides me who like Talamo and Paco, for instance. The one thing that happened this year is we do get to see some jockeys who are not ALL just the usual big money riders compete in this race. I'm looking forward to seeing them ride.
And QUITE RELIEVED that Rosario isn't gonna be here, and esp. not on any horses I like. I swear he's like bad ju-ju for me. I jsut watched him take another horse, who goes wide, even wider this week, another one I had $$ on to run down others in the stretch and of course, Rosario angled him OUT .......OUT..........and OUT........he was practically not on the track anymore LOL
Espinoza isn't getting great mounts at DM this year......I keep looking for a good longshot he's on to win.
I never play CA, but the values have been very good.
In a contest on my "oaklawn group forum" to do Churchill all week, so I guess I'll know how the track is playing soon although they will have it souped up for the Derby.
If anyone notices anything worthwhile, post it up.