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Kentucky Derby 2020 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 2/3/20 by DogsUp; 60293 views.
In reply toRe: msg 253
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

9/2/20

Wintertrian said...

I wouldn't leave Tiz off my ticket but I don't think he has to go first. 
I think Enforceable can run 2nd....reminds me a little bit of Firing Line.  

Of course I have to play my infamous homebred exacta box, but there aren't many homebreds this year...only 3.   

Art Collector
Major Fed
Finnick the Fierce

Looks like my homebred box just got a lot smaller w/out Art Collector. 
I will add 2 horses to it and still play a 4-horse exacta box.  Because.......my tradition insists on it.  :) 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

9/2/20

DogsUp said...

According, we have substitute:

Max Player – Ricardo Santana, Jr. (Kentucky) – 60 pts.

__________________________________

And statistically and arguably one of the best all time riders and Hall of Famer. Further, at great sacrifice to his heavy rider commitments.

 

Caracaro – Javier Castellano 60 pts

And looks like Castellano got Money Moves now that Caracaro is out. 


This might be a good time to write what jockey we would love to see win a KY Derby.   I now there is someone here besides me who like Talamo  and Paco, for instance.   The one thing that happened this year is we do get to see some jockeys who are not ALL just the usual big money riders compete in this race.  I'm looking forward to seeing them ride. 

And QUITE RELIEVED that Rosario isn't gonna be here, and esp. not on any horses I like.   I swear he's like bad ju-ju for me.  I jsut watched him take another horse, who goes wide, even wider this week, another one I had $$ on to run down others in the stretch and of course, Rosario angled him OUT .......OUT..........and OUT........he was practically not on the track anymore    LOL  

Espinoza isn't getting great mounts at DM this year......I keep looking for a good longshot he's on  to win. 
I never play CA, but the values have been very good. 

In a contest on my "oaklawn group forum" to do Churchill all week, so I guess I'll know how the track is playing soon although they will have it souped up for the Derby.    

If anyone notices anything worthwhile, post it up. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

9/2/20

http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby20-entries.htm

There is nothing missing from Cindy's site, at all, she's even got all the KY Derby pools, the prep races, anything and everything you would need for the Derby.  

Just giving credit where due........plus, we're on her forum.  :)   

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

9/2/20

Award winning Cindy and thoroughly thoroughbred comprehensive Tex do an excellent job and are arguably leaders among their craft in the industry.

The Derby and other Grade Churchill PPs I alluded to were well before established and final fields were selected and then drawn for post. Just Sharing info to get a jump on info when final field, Post, official M/L, scratches, jockey reassignments,AM works were Not Available. Yet. They included even all horses subscribed to the respective races, but ultimately not allowed. Pick & Pull info.

My Diary is to share what I'm thinking, learning, observing, and using and then doing about it...ticket construction.

Accordingly this morning I would share the info available and videos on the official Kentucky Derby Twitter site. One does not need to be a Twit/Twitter account holder.

Hey. Send me an email.

(d)

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

9/2/20

Well for sure the Derby one timers will have no idea what I'm talking about. (d)

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

9/2/20

If one would picture a random draw for jockeys to ride Derby Mounts..I'd go with Castellano.

Rosario runs in hot and cold streaks. 

  • Edited September 2, 2020 6:01 am  by  DogsUp
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

9/2/20

Justify breaks the Apollo jinx.......Tiz, first to break the "No wins from gate 17" jinx. 

Posssible up setter here, Honor AP. 3 days till the big dance, hopefully all come home safe!

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

9/2/20

ChiefsCrown said...

Justify breaks the Apollo jinx.......Tiz, first to break the "No wins from gate 17" jinx. 

Posssible up setter here, Honor AP. 3 days till the big dance, hopefully all come home safe!

Yes, all historicals are eventually broken.  Has a horse with one eye won yet?  If no then Finnick is due.  :)  
Every time he gets the #1 post he runs 2nd, 3rd or 4th.  Anybody notice that? 

He's in my homebred box so he will be on one of my cheapo tickets by default  

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

9/2/20

There were some absolutist math/breeding handicappers (just made that one up)  who absolutely couldn't handle that the math/breeding dosage index predicators could produce a Derby winner with a dosage of 7.Magic number used to be 4 or under. Who bets a genetic number? 

The 2 year old not racing til 3 was just a hard spun stat. As crops get smaller/the # of purchased runners  and less and less races needed to campaign *or no points at all to acquire Derby stall; this one will add in wins number.

Believe it or not I talk to the 1x Derby shooters Derby day and some/they  will  say they are betting the/a colt because of one eye.

And for the 1st time in Derb history (I never bet names, colors, numbers as a bold ruler) my numbers 1,4,6,9 - given a Derby 146 and supply a tri combo + 9.

I envision the 1st woman jockey to win a Derby to come from a racing family and have that magic touch that Steve Cauthen possessed from the get go. Julie Krone could have got the job done.

Here's one for my fond friend Winter: I used to think that Center of Distribution was the Amazon warehouse.

Enjoy our highlight week. (d)

  • Edited September 2, 2020 12:11 pm  by  DogsUp
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

9/3/20

DogsUp said...

So I'm say that the infrequent, once a year players will use, almost for sure Tiz The Year ..on top..ro win.

And that's a Rock Hard Ten statement.

Just pray they will be buying the "dross"  and putting money in the pools so the rest of us can snag it.  (talking about things like Super Screener here)   What a joke that thing is. 

It's never ceases to amaze me that those guys will keep making $$ selling it, too, regardless of how many people pass it around for free afterwards. 

CINDY DULAY has great write ups on the KY Derby.   On the ORIGINAL http://www.horse-races.net/

:)   She does such good work!~~~~

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