Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 480
    MEMBERS
  • 25686
    MESSAGES
  • 3
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Future pools   Triple Crown

Started 1/24/21 by smartyslew; 4059 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/6/21

Greatest Honour is the most Popular bet at 12-1 over there

Prevalence at 16 -1  is 5th most popular, and I haven't looked at him yet
so much more to learn. Thanks Tex.

top 5 popular bets:  83 percent have bet on these top 5 listed. 17 % all others

Greatest Honour (12/1) Life Is Good (10/1) Essential Quality (8/1) Concert Tour (12/1) Prevalence (16/1)

Greatest Honour  43.75 % of the bets,

In reply toRe: msg 36
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/8/21

IMO top Pedigrees : Essential Quality, Greatest Honour, Life Is Good

Prevalence, Proxy P/N(Tapit), Concert Tour , X= top Contenders,

N/P Midnight Bourbon, P/N Proxy, 21 others all P/P in Pool
4 Into Mischief, 3 Tapits Sires in pool 4. look em up,  

021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Official Field - Pool Four
# Name Pool 1
Final Odds
Pool 2
Final Odds
Pool 3
Final Odds
Pool 4
M/L Odds
Pool 4
Final Odds
  1 Caddo River  21a     8f 96 27-1 13-1 15-1 15-1 E 8      16-1
  2 Candy Man Rocket  A4  14 13c - 35-1 30-1     E/P 8    71-1
  3 Collaborate L  20b    8.5f 93 - - - 30-1 /        EP 4    29-1         
  4 Concert Tour  b  3c   7f  97 - 16-1 17-1 20-1 X   N           EP 6     17-1             
  5 Dream Shake  Lb  3h.  8 13c 6.5f 90  - 28-1 30-1 S4       71-1 
  6 Essential Quality b 1x 8, 9 13c, 8.5f 98    8-1 8-1 8-1 7-2 X    N      EP 4   5-1     
  7 Freedom Fighter  b  1n   7f 96 - - 52-1 30-1 E6      84-1
  8 Greatest Honour  8f   12f, 8.5 97 - 40-1 9-1 6-1 X      N     S 0       6-1      
  9 Highly Motivated  7a  6.5f 102 18-1 24-1 37-1 20-1 X        N      P6     36-1       
10 Hot Rod Charlie  b 11 d.  8.5f 93 34-1 40-1 35-1 30-1
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/8/21

The pool Today pretty much shakes out to what now appears the likely top 3; maybe 4. With what we know.  And fits my ticket construction if the race was today. 

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

3/8/21

Prevalence taking an interesting route.....entered this week in an ALW one turn mile at GP.  Trying to understand strategy, probably wants him to show his stuff, win by 8 in a short field, but then hamstrung for the Derby, unless enters him next in the final 9f. prep, perhaps at OP in the Ark Derby?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/8/21

Sounds like the Preakness strategy. orders come from the Sheik. (my Guess)

In reply toRe: msg 41
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/28/21

Derby points leaders from the Field # 24 future bets. For Future Players Bet 24 for the Win
Strategy or use in The Exacta or maybe both. Could have enough poinjts to get in .
How many are on your Watch list?
-
Like The King 104,Known Agenda 102, Rebels Romance 100,Soup And Sandwich 40,Sainthood 40,
Panadol 40, God Selection (JPN) 40, 
-
There is a good case for others that were left off this week. I suggest they change their selection commitee.
--
2021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Official Field - Pool Five
# Points Pool 1
Final Odds
Pool 2
Final Odds
Pool 3
Final Odds
Pool 4
Final Odds
Pool 5
M/L Odds
Pool 5
Final Odds
  1 Big Lake - - - - 50-1 suspended
  2 Caddo River   10 27-1 13-1 15-1 16-1 30-1
  3 Collaborate  0 - - - 29-1 30-1
  4 Concert TourX  50 - 16-1 17-1 17-1 9-2
  5 Crowded Trade  20 - - - - 30-1
  6 Dream Shake   10 - - 28-1 71-1 50-1
  7 Essential QualityX  40 8-1 8-1 8-1 5-1 3-1
  8 Greatest Honour X80 - 40-1 9-1 6-1 4-1
  9 Helium   50 - - - - 30-1
10 Hidden Stash  22 - - - - 50-1
11 Highly MotivatedX   10 18-1 24-1 37-1 36-1 30-1
12 Hot Rod Charlie  110 34-1 40-1 35-1 53-1 6-1
13 Hozier  20 - - - - 30-1
14 Mandaloun  52 - 42-1 16-1 17-1 30-1
15 Medina Spirit  34 - 24-1 25-1 39-1 20-1
16 Midnight Bourbon  66 59-1 26-1 41-1 52-1 30-1
17 O Besos  25 - - - - 50-1
18 Prevalence x  0 - - 14-1 29-1 20-1
19 Proxy  34 - - - 41-1 30-1
20 Risk Taking  10 - - 25-1 42-1 30-1
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
In reply toRe: msg 42
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/29/21

Final odds added. Looks like the betting pool like All Others #24 This Weekend
bet it down from 20-1 to 5-1... The favorite is Essential Quality #7  4-1.

2021 Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Official Field - Pool Five
# Points Pool 1
Final Odds
Pool 2
Final Odds
Pool 3
Final Odds
Pool 4
Final Odds
Pool 5
M/L Odds
Pool 5
Final Odds
  1 Big Lake - - - - 50-1 suspended
  2 Caddo River   10 27-1 13-1 15-1 16-1 30-1 33-1 
  3 Collaborate  0 - - - 29-1 30-1 36-1 
  4 Concert TourX  50 - 16-1 17-1 17-1 9-2 5-1 
  5 Crowded Trade  20 - - - - 30-1 38-1 
  6 Dream Shake   10 - - 28-1 71-1 50-1 45-1 
  7 Essential QualityX  40 8-1 8-1 8-1 5-1 3-1 4-1 
  8 Greatest Honour X80 - 40-1 9-1 6-1 4-1  9-1
  9 Helium   50 - - - - 30-1 28-1 
10 Hidden Stash  22 - - - - 50-1  53-1
11 Highly MotivatedX   10 18-1 24-1 37-1 36-1 30-1 25-1 
12 Hot Rod Charlie  110 34-1 40-1 35-1 53-1 6-1 12-1 
13 Hozier  20 - - - - 30-1 44-1 
14 Mandaloun  52 - 42-1 16-1 17-1 30-1 36-1 
15 Medina Spirit  34 - 24-1 25-1 39-1 20-1 13-1 
16 Midnight Bourbon  66 59-1 26-1 41-1 52-1 30-1 27-1 
17 O Besos  25 - - - - 50-1 50-1 
18 Prevalence x  0 - - 14-1 29-1 20-1 21-1 
19 Proxy  34 - - - 41-1 30-1 51-1 
20 Risk Taking  10 - - 25-1 42-1 30-1 30-1 
21 Rock Your World  0 - - - - 50-1 31-1 
22 Spielberg  17 - 47-1 - 63-1 50-1 46-1 
23 WeyburnX  50 - - - - 30-1 35-1 
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

3/29/21

Very interesting......their selection committee seems inexperienced, actually.  I would venture to guess that at least 10, possibly 12, of these don't make the gate, and their odds are way too low.  Spielberg at 46-1 AFTER the FL derby?  I bet him at 125-1 before the previous prep, when he still had a chance!

Collaborate at 36-1?!?  While Helium is only a shade less?  Not surprised the All Others got a little more attention, the morning line was absurd.  Not sure myself who might make the gate.....maybe Swiftsure, if Asmussen feels confident about his works to enter him in the Ark Derby?  The foreign ones you named could enter and have a chance too.  Maybe Baffert's Defunded, if he goes in the SA Derby?  Keepmeinmind and Get Her Number with a chance in the Ark Derby....certainly as much as Caddo River?  Rombauer?  The bet down was definitely because of Known Agenda, but there is definitely other value there as well.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/29/21

I couldn't believe in a Pool 5, 33 days before the Derby That all others odds dropped from 20-1 M/L

to 5-1. reasons Life Is Good is out, Most didn't see the Interview Greatest Honour's Jockey had with Paul De Luca before the race with the intent of Moving to the rail to take dirt , last race he almost stopped because

of dirt in his face and he didn't like it, That can backfire IMO, you can take dirt in the face at 10 miles

an hour or at 40 miles an hour, when he moved to the outside he wasn't his usual self, maybe he will be gun shy next time. also I think there are many North American Cappers That they bet #24 All Others

Because they Thought it was good strategy to bet a Foreign entry to win .Problem was for whatever

reason it got bet down to 5-1, including the FL derby winner, and many bet the odds were higher than 5-1.

TOP