Horse Racing Forum
Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)
This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
- 509
MEMBERS - 28948
MESSAGES - 5
POSTS TODAY
Discussions
Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary Triple Crown
From: Wintertrian
5/14/21
Oldbettowin said...
Those aren’t all-weather tracks in the sense that they’re synthetic surfaces; they’re just dirt. They just call all non-turf races that.
Yes Japan runs on dirt. That is one of the reasons why many think one of those will eventually win one of our big races.
From: Wintertrian
5/14/21
Oldbettowin said...
I think those figures are based on pedigree? Not sure how they calculate them—whether it’s just sire and dam/bms or if it involves more?
I find them to be somewhat off. Rombauer for instance. A stamina horse. They have his AWDs very low
From: Wintertrian
5/14/21
ChiefsCrown said...
Looking at The Racing Post run lines (very vague) it looks like France Go de Ina is an AW runner. Shows 4 races on the stuff. Brisnet pp's show he ran a 107 on a fast track. Probably a moot point. Info in case anyone's using him.
Since Smarty schooled you in all that, I will offer that a friend transposed the figs for FGdI and they are 82, 85, and 84 going backwards from his last race. What method he uses to do this I do not know. But if valid, somewhere around the speed figs that keepmeinmind, unbridled honor run.
FGdI won 2 races at 1-1/8. One of the reassons I like him and Risk Taking.
What we do know is that Japan racing is not done as fast as US racing.
Once the tracks stop being souped up maybe an across-the-pond DIRT horse can win this. Lani did pretty well. I think Casino Drive would have done quite well had he not picked up that pebble and bruised his foot and scratched.
- Edited May 14, 2021 5:12 pm by Wintertrian
From: Oldbettowin
5/14/21
That’s part of what makes me wonder what goes into their potential speed figures—the ones labeled fst, off, dis, trf. They have Rombauer for example listed with a 110 for distance, tied for third in the race, but his sire and bms must not have tried routes very often with just 6.7 and 6.8 furlongs respectively. I think those figures (6.7 & 6.8) are based on actual wins by the sire and bms but the figures up on the right are somehow based on what the pedigree says he should be able to do. I don’t really pay much attention to the sire/bms figures.
From: Wintertrian
5/14/21
Oldbettowin said...
They have Rombauer for example listed with a 110 for distance, tied for third in the race, but his sire and bms must not have tried routes very often with just 6.7 and 6.8 furlongs respectively. I think those figures (6.7 & 6.8) are based on actual wins by the sire and bms
But his sire side dosage Index is 1.86. That takes him out of having inherited much speed from his sire side chefs. But his mare triads are 13-17-22. That's a distance horse for sure....he can do 12F. But his speed from sire side is not fast. He's acutally not that fast to begin with even on his mare side. That is not where his talent lies.
His running style is from back of the pack, so if you think he has the 'jets' to run by tiring speed horses, then use him. I'm not sure that is a good setup for the Preakness unless the speedier ones get wobbly in the stretch.
I like him better for The Belmont myself. For the KY Derby and Preakness it just always seems to me that you need some speed. For the Belmont you need the lungs and pedigree and locomotive engines do better there?
From: DogsUp
5/14/21
Wayne also said he knows how to train a horse and as a long shot he's DANGEROUS. LMAO.
Wayne Oh is a man's man.
I'm not always the Pope of Racing but no one jumped on my call for the Wood.
I'm just going to take my shot.
I started to write something hilariously clever but lost it
Wearing my Wayne Lukas sunglasses.
From: pianot
5/14/21
Wish the best for you. If I understood 1/10th of what u say here I could retire again!
From: smartyslew
5/14/21
I think they must use the progeny. Twirling Candy 23b, is the Sire. Candy Ride is Part Argentina bred-2nd sire
At 3: 1st: Malibu S (G1,7f), Del Mar Derby (G2,9fT), Oceanside S (R,Dmr,8fT)
At 4: 1st Strub S (G2,SA,9f), Californian S (G2,Hol,9f); 2nd Pacific Classic S (G1,Dmr,10f); 3rd Hollywood Gold Cup (G1,Hol,10f)
- Dec. 2010: Set Santa Anita track record Malibu S. for 7F on dirt in 1:19.70
---
only 2 races this year with improvement 91 bris 1st 9f Aw, bumped bad at start bris 96- 3rd place blue grass
a tidbit to think about Cowboy Cal bms a turfer ran on dirt 2nd Blue Grass
Fappiano/ Storm Cat TC nick bred for the Classic . Needs this race to see if he should go to the belmont.
AWD is moot for this marraige imo. Like a Hang nail.imo
From: Wintertrian
5/14/21
pianot said...
Wish the best for you. If I understood 1/10th of what u say here I could retire again!
After a few years, you start to pick it up. Really, you would not be alone in that.
Reading dogs is stream-of-consciousness with puns and a little Jack Keroac thrown in and maybe some movies that paul newman did.
As someone who read Gertrude Stein books and actually made it thru those, you'd have to understand that compared to her, dogs speaks very simple language. ROTFL