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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary Triple Crown
From: Oldbettowin
5/14/21
That’s part of what makes me wonder what goes into their potential speed figures—the ones labeled fst, off, dis, trf. They have Rombauer for example listed with a 110 for distance, tied for third in the race, but his sire and bms must not have tried routes very often with just 6.7 and 6.8 furlongs respectively. I think those figures (6.7 & 6.8) are based on actual wins by the sire and bms but the figures up on the right are somehow based on what the pedigree says he should be able to do. I don’t really pay much attention to the sire/bms figures.
From: Wintertrian
5/14/21
Oldbettowin said...
They have Rombauer for example listed with a 110 for distance, tied for third in the race, but his sire and bms must not have tried routes very often with just 6.7 and 6.8 furlongs respectively. I think those figures (6.7 & 6.8) are based on actual wins by the sire and bms
But his sire side dosage Index is 1.86. That takes him out of having inherited much speed from his sire side chefs. But his mare triads are 13-17-22. That's a distance horse for sure....he can do 12F. But his speed from sire side is not fast. He's acutally not that fast to begin with even on his mare side. That is not where his talent lies.
His running style is from back of the pack, so if you think he has the 'jets' to run by tiring speed horses, then use him. I'm not sure that is a good setup for the Preakness unless the speedier ones get wobbly in the stretch.
I like him better for The Belmont myself. For the KY Derby and Preakness it just always seems to me that you need some speed. For the Belmont you need the lungs and pedigree and locomotive engines do better there?
From: DogsUp
5/14/21
Wayne also said he knows how to train a horse and as a long shot he's DANGEROUS. LMAO.
Wayne Oh is a man's man.
I'm not always the Pope of Racing but no one jumped on my call for the Wood.
I'm just going to take my shot.
I started to write something hilariously clever but lost it
Wearing my Wayne Lukas sunglasses.
From: pianot
5/14/21
Wish the best for you. If I understood 1/10th of what u say here I could retire again!
From: smartyslew
5/14/21
I think they must use the progeny. Twirling Candy 23b, is the Sire. Candy Ride is Part Argentina bred-2nd sire
At 3: 1st: Malibu S (G1,7f), Del Mar Derby (G2,9fT), Oceanside S (R,Dmr,8fT)
At 4: 1st Strub S (G2,SA,9f), Californian S (G2,Hol,9f); 2nd Pacific Classic S (G1,Dmr,10f); 3rd Hollywood Gold Cup (G1,Hol,10f)
- Dec. 2010: Set Santa Anita track record Malibu S. for 7F on dirt in 1:19.70
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only 2 races this year with improvement 91 bris 1st 9f Aw, bumped bad at start bris 96- 3rd place blue grass
a tidbit to think about Cowboy Cal bms a turfer ran on dirt 2nd Blue Grass
Fappiano/ Storm Cat TC nick bred for the Classic . Needs this race to see if he should go to the belmont.
AWD is moot for this marraige imo. Like a Hang nail.imo
From: Wintertrian
5/14/21
pianot said...
Wish the best for you. If I understood 1/10th of what u say here I could retire again!
After a few years, you start to pick it up. Really, you would not be alone in that.
Reading dogs is stream-of-consciousness with puns and a little Jack Keroac thrown in and maybe some movies that paul newman did.
As someone who read Gertrude Stein books and actually made it thru those, you'd have to understand that compared to her, dogs speaks very simple language. ROTFL
From: Wintertrian
5/14/21
I LIKE Rombauer. I just couldn't decide if I liked him more or less than Midnight Bourbon. 2 completely different types of runners. Midnight has lower odds (5-1) that I believe will go lower at Post Time because so many people are 'on' him. (including some outfits that put out big products and have a huge following). Midnight is 5th off the layoff......Rombauer is fresh. So I need a horse, I will proably pick Rombauer.
Preakness race is not my strong point, and I may chicken out playing it altogether, at least that is my feeling right now. Maybe tomorrow I will feel differently.
One horse I have added is Concert Tour. I'm not "sure" he can get the distance in time, but I do know he was on the vets list at OP, so I can't help but think he will improve here.
- Edited May 14, 2021 10:26 pm by Wintertrian
From: Oldbettowin
5/15/21
Midnight is the favorite right now at 5-2. Rombauer is 11-1 but they’re all between 5-2 and 18-1.
I think I’m just going to put $20 on Rombauer and enjoy the race without getting too stressed out. My order for Haskins’ contest: Rombauer-Concert Tour-Medina Spirit-Midnight Bourbon-Unbridled Honor-Ram-Crowded Trade-Risk Taking-Keepmeinmind-France Go De Ina.
- Edited May 15, 2021 6:30 am by Oldbettowin
From: Wintertrian
5/15/21
off to a bad start. One of my picks for race 1 Market Cap fell out of the gate, lost rider.
Hope the #1 beat hozier, I'll be good if that happens. edit: Yay! it did happen
- Edited May 15, 2021 10:52 am by Wintertrian