This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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I LIKE Rombauer. I just couldn't decide if I liked him more or less than Midnight Bourbon. 2 completely different types of runners. Midnight has lower odds (5-1) that I believe will go lower at Post Time because so many people are 'on' him. (including some outfits that put out big products and have a huge following). Midnight is 5th off the layoff......Rombauer is fresh. So I need a horse, I will proably pick Rombauer.
Preakness race is not my strong point, and I may chicken out playing it altogether, at least that is my feeling right now. Maybe tomorrow I will feel differently.
One horse I have added is Concert Tour. I'm not "sure" he can get the distance in time, but I do know he was on the vets list at OP, so I can't help but think he will improve here.
Midnight is the favorite right now at 5-2. Rombauer is 11-1 but they’re all between 5-2 and 18-1.
I think I’m just going to put $20 on Rombauer and enjoy the race without getting too stressed out. My order for Haskins’ contest: Rombauer-Concert Tour-Medina Spirit-Midnight Bourbon-Unbridled Honor-Ram-Crowded Trade-Risk Taking-Keepmeinmind-France Go De Ina.
off to a bad start. One of my picks for race 1 Market Cap fell out of the gate, lost rider.
Hope the #1 beat hozier, I'll be good if that happens. edit: Yay! it did happen
That's on paper as you know, 3rd time out doesn't guarantee a forward move.
To all..The third time cap axiom is. Third time back, third time on a drop
In claiming price or class
For sure. Sometimes I like to take races and works together and try to get a feel for how the horse is feeling headed into a race. I label the works slow, par, or fast. For example, over 1:01 and over for a 5 furlong work is kind of slow, 1:00 to 1:01 is par, and under 1:00 is fast. Of course some trainers always want to work them fast but you can kind of get a look at the big picture.
: ) Yawn, West Coaster just got up. Race 5.
Went to cigar shop. Guys pooled in $. Set up for booze and gars.
I don't drink. Stay sharp.
DogsUp said...The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575.
Many people play / gamble at all different kinds of things, yet they don't know much about the odds related to the game they are engaging in. .
In poker, for instance, a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.
There is a difference in looking at the math though.
The math for the 20 horse field is exactly. And for one specific occurrence.
And...The more perfect the handicapping and understanding of the outcome; the gross number of possibilities factor could be diminished to having a Superfecta straight in a 20 horse field.
The poker number is an extrapolate of 650,000 separately occurrences / hands delt.
And for the sake of example let's say a casino opens its doors first day and there could be a royal straight flush or there is the possibility it could neher happen