Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 514
  • 29489
  • 1


Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 61408 views.

From: DogsUp


DogsUp said...

The number of combinations that are possible with 20 numbers is 1,048,575. 
Winter said

Many people play / gamble at all different kinds of things, yet they don't know much about the odds related to the game they are engaging in.  .
In poker, for instance,  a royal straight flush is around 0.000154% or 1 in 650,000.   

Dogs Hoofnote

There is a difference in looking at the math though.

The math for the 20 horse field is exactly. And for one specific occurrence.

And...The more perfect the handicapping and understanding of the outcome; the gross number of possibilities factor could be diminished to having a Superfecta straight in a 20 horse field.


The poker number is an extrapolate of 650,000 separately occurrences / hands delt.

And for the sake of example let's say a casino opens its doors first day and there could be a royal straight flush or there is the possibility it could neher happen

  • Edited May 16, 2021 1:22 pm  by  DogsUp

From: Oldbettowin


That’s where Dogs Up’s diary comes in handy.

In reply toRe: msg 368

From: DogsUp


I watched the 2021 Derby to review why Essential Quality just couldn't get there. As Dogs watched the race again the colt seemed to be in the contentious zone but never delivered a knockout punch 

Jockey Luis Saez in the week preceding 2021 Derby was getting media criticism on his ride in 2019 aboard the 2019 DQ Maximum Security.

Dogs sees it as Saez just didn't want to engage EQ into close quarters and chances of revisiting his reputation of rough and careless riding. 

He'll be on his home track the Big Sandy and the long and wide track and small field size should put him at ease.

Derby DQ --Documentary

2021 Derby

  • Edited May 22, 2021 5:48 pm  by  DogsUp

From: Oldbettowin


I think it was mostly the track.  Medina Spirit didn’t really run any better than he was capable of but there were plenty of others including Essential Quality that were capable of a lot more.


From: DogsUp


Did you watch both videos?

Although it looks to me as Maximum Security was independently out of control and Luis righted him. In the subsequent Derby where Luis again had the favorite,

Churchill put up a warning flag not to create another embroiled outcome.


From: Oldbettowin


CD’s still trying to justify the DQ.  They’re batting .007 with 1 out of 147.



I think Essential Quality ran his race, he just lost so much ground. He ran 68ft farther than Medina Spirit. Only Rock Your World (90ft) and Dynamic One (80ft) ran farther. 


From: smartyslew


Do you have that stat for Known Agenda ?


From: Wintertrian


Oldbettowin said...

I think it was mostly the track.  Medina Spirit didn’t really run any better than he was capable of but there were plenty of others including Essential Quality that were capable of a lot more.

I agree and besides, judging a ride or even a run by a horse, in a true "chaos race" like the KY Derby, where we know "the best horse doesn't always win" because all sorts of things happen, just seems to be a race where I would hesitate to draw any true "conclusions" about anything.    If EQ was in a field of 10, w/Saez riding, then I might have a 2nd look. 

Max Sec in 2019 was able to avoid most all of it, other than the horses pressing the pace,  because he got out in front and stayed there.  I think he did start drifting and you can see the exact point in the race when he got "noticeably tired".  (understandably)..... and then he righted and persevered......Country House was getting his 2nd wind coming around that last turn as he had a lot of stamina and ....but for Max, it could have been any race at that point with a field of 5 or 20.   He was fast.  

Watching that race many times since it happened, it makes me feel melancholy in too many respects.  Watching them run over that horrible sloppy track, etc. Every year I want to hide my eyes, its all so dangerous w/that many horses and riders on the track.  That particular year was incredibly dangerous with the bumping, drifting, heel clipping, on a muddy track.   

I always felt bad for Max Sec because you could see that he tried very hard.  I don't fault the horse.    

God only knows what Servis had him on though, now that we know the whole story about him.  :(   


From: DogsUp


It was the painful right call.

The Derby, especially muddy, no inquiry or claim of foul unless a jockey takes a chain saw, electric cow prod or taser gun out of his boot.

I would have had that Tri in that Max also interfered with Johnny Vee  mount placing fifth, moved to fourth, needed a move to third.

It was an aggregious train wreck and as the video shows the Stewards took 22 minutes. Do the right thing.

This new drug test draconian embroilment that the Stews are dragged into is perhaps even more a night mare in progress than the 1st DQ adjudication by the 3 judges...Official. and Final.

  • Edited May 24, 2021 4:58 pm  by  DogsUp