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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 72047 views.

From: Wintertrian


DogsUp said...

Seattle Slew as I mentioned elsewhere didn't look like much earlier as a baby. 

Nobody wanted Zenyatta.........too big and gangly. 


From: DogsUp


That's such a great one.

My favorite is when MAX SECURITY ran 1st race for #16K someone actually claimed another colt out of the race 

Joke of the day: That person is such a dumb handicapper..thinks DQ means Dairy Queen. 

In reply toRe: msg 56

From: DogsUp


The Obvious...EQ Delta colt. Gets 9 in 1:48 + change. And looks like he could run in the following race after the one he just won.

Segment (by ranking *alphabetical 1st, then by performance) remainder of field who can get to 9fl and is not quitting. Who .can't get to 9 fl. YES 9.If they can't get 9 at 1:48i-ishy  What about 10 furlongs with 4 to 8 more pounds; a 20 gate; the longest 1/18 of a mile additional and jockey skill differential. No more Cal Borail services but NYRA crew best in the business and perhaps the best colony. Ever to date IMO.

1ST segment.  5 colts (rank them)

2nd segment 6

3rd.  5

4th. 4

*One should know every colt in the field by name and at least a concise thought.

Today Bourbonic is my three week conundrum /conundrum.

Is he a toss - beat me colt based on PP times and weighed against needs and capability to play and Pay on a vertical ticket. OR that connections are stellar; shrewd,cagy and tenacious: Mike Ripole owner/Pletcher/Kendrick jockey.

A flat bet only in a Derby is not my style. Watching Watching 20 colts shake out for 2 minutes plus... and against a ticket construction...emotional and wallet splendor 


  • Edited April 12, 2021 6:16 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 57

From: DogsUp


Dear Diary. I write about each horse/colt each day..18.5 days left as of April 12. And return to read my notes 

EQ is undefeated in 5 starts has Goldolphin, Brad Cox and a DQed Kentucky Derby Win jockey. 

Colt's  race ability performance numbers went up each time.

Not likely to bounce. 

What I see key is: in Blue Grass it (perhaps) appeared that the colt was rode as if it were the Derby distance and the BG was a calculated run drill,  a dry run to the 9 furlong marker. 9 fl is where it all shakes and bakes out 

Handicap Hoofnote:  crunch one's selections and set the ticket construction. (Exotic)..

Don't remodel the ticket; 2nd guess it, or 2nd guess yourself. Or be persuaded by others. 

Read and look out for anecdotal information  

Husker (Birdman506)

From: Husker (Birdman506)


This deserves its own thread.


From: ChiefsCrown


"Don't change your ticket"......the mantra i live by in horse racing. Burned a ton of funeros changing up!


From: DogsUp


 THE Conversation/Dogs/Chief..."Don't change your ticket".....Chief say: the mantra i live by in horse racing. Burned a ton of funeros changing up.

AND what's really insane is when one does in the 'last minute before the bet! Then the outcome is the exactly what was the original play.

!! It's the what was I thinking (or not syndrome).

A solution might be to Dutch hedge this propensity (politely for not being stupid with bank roll) and bet a minor ticket. 

I like horizontal bets 3,4 sometimes occasionally a five. Going into the last leg I know the 'will pays'. I generally Dutch a runner I don't have. Essentially it protects investment and especially if the leg has big field. And in some cases can even return more than the minor will pay.

Unlike the Stock Market you can't go to other holdings and use those fungible sources. But the hedge play invariably covers the runner who can take down one's ticket at the line.

 On the other hand, when looking at the will pays, look for the runner you don't have thats price is telegraphed a lower price in comparison of what is.

  • Edited April 13, 2021 2:50 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 61

From: DogsUp


You may have to cut and paste the link above/ or just shorthand it into you bowser to see Derby horse trainer jockey owner.

Easy to draw conclusions. To be covered in COLT HOT ROD CHARLIE episode.

Yet can Cox be the intermittent name on the list of usual Derby win trainers of recent times*

Now. Horse de jour is Caddo River.

Correction (Wesley Ward not CoX) Trainer Brad Cox is notorious, program screams this guy's gift is to get 2 yo young ladies to their first dance and win. First dance. Now can he do it with Caddo. Derby colt.

*Bulletin- Brad Cox is trainer of Derby sharps Essential Quality + Mandaloun.

2020 Trainer of the year. Cox ran 7th last year's Derby.

Which leads to three things.

Connections not likely to go to Derby with Caddo He's just not at least or more than ready.

If in can't win. This colt can't  find a spot on a placing ticket. Not likely to bounce forward.

  A definite leave out for win - beat me runner. A toss today 

I'll go with he'll be munching hay snacks while watching the Derby from his stall in May (d)

  • Edited April 15, 2021 11:27 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 62

From: DogsUp


Not a misprint for mile and eighth for Maiden Claiming.
Fractional Times: 24.88 50.18 1:14.98 1:40.76 the mile Final Time: 1:54.49
Split Times: (25:30) (24:80) (25:78) (13:73)
Run-Up: 80 feet

Derby Run-Up 34 feet.

2 nd year with one gate for Derby.
Winner: Bourbonic, Big A Wood. As time above 

Colt could get beat by 20+ lengths. There are no volcanos or tsunami floods in Kentucky to make this 2021 Derby a rock hard ten slow enough surface and this runner a winner May 1.

  • Edited April 13, 2021 5:20 pm  by  DogsUp
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G


Agree.  Caddo River is a nice horse but 10 furlongs is a bridge too far.