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Kentucky Derby 2021 DogsUp Diary   Triple Crown

Started 2/28/21 by DogsUp; 48966 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/16/21

Sainthood was at top of my 9 horse derby list I posted the other day though they weren't in order.  I only really like 9 horses right now.   
http://forums.delphiforums.com/horse_racing/messages/?msg=1668.12


What DON'T you see there, so play the devils advocate from the other side if you will.  :wink:   I'd be interested to know why you don't like him. 

I'm still waiting for someone to tell me why they like Midnight Bourbon.....I really want/need to know.  :)  Is Mike riding?  What's the deal?
 

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/16/21

Go to my comments and even a video of Saint in Ruby stakes.  Post # 70

Sainthood can get out front early, then rate (let others pass)  weave and bob through 19 other runners. Run late.

Moves from tapeta surface in last to my old Kentucky loam May 1.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/16/21

I knew his final F was very good watching that race. He's never run out of the money either. 
And his dosage profile says stamina-laden.  Not sure I would use him if it rains though 
My early list of 9 was based on a fast dry track. He won on Tapeta but he's won a route on dirt, too. 
That is one of the reasons I like him. 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/16/21

Oh I did see that but it didn’t explain why you would key him in second or third lol. 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/16/21

What I like:  he’s in his sire’s first crop.  What I don’t like:  he’s ND-RAN-RAN-T2.  The RAN-RAN in the middle bothers me.  He’s and E/P type and runs pretty evenly, which is good, but I’m leaning toward a couple of the underneath horses being late runners this year and there are plenty of pressers I like more running late than him.

But I don’t really have anything against him, just curious.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/16/21

For reasons mentioned S-hood will not be keyed naked Rock Hard Ten exclusively

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/17/21

Thank you, and that is a logical point. 

I watched Pletcher horses work today.  Dynamic One was definitely faster than Bourbonic.  
Sainthood and Known Agenda worked together and looked about the same to me. 
I am not good at discerning works, but just like to see they are getting over the track okay. 

Tomorrow,  (Sat) Essential Quality, Mandaloun and Soup and Sandwich work early morn.   

These guys who bring their horses to Churchill early are the smart ones IMHO.  In case anyone needs that list here it is:
Obesos (first one to arrive at CDX in late march)
EQ, Soup, Helium, Sainthood, Dynamic One, Bourbonic, Known Agenda, Super Stock, Concert Tour April 6-April 14. 

As for "faces" Dynamic One and Sainthood are both kinda *adorable* looking to me! 
 

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/17/21

LMAO.  Adorable!  I like it 

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

4/17/21

I am looking outside the primary candidates, to identify a win candidate that not many will be considering. O Besos and Sainthood are the two I've identified so far. Midnight Bourbon is not as much of a long shot, but not a favorite either. What do I see in him:

1) By Tiznow, out of a Malibu Moon mare. While his dam is out of a Yes It's True mare, she also has one of my favorite TC contenders, Arts and Letters, a bit further back as well. 10f breeding in my opinion

2) Of the so-called Big Three that campaigned at the FG, he was the most consistent. He was never spectacular, but as race conditions, including distance changed, He brought his game. In fact, the 9.5f La. Derby was arguably his best effort. He challenged a much more Derby-like pace, than was run in previous two preps.

3. He has run best off a two month layoff. He will get 1.5 month layoff this time, and may move forward this time as well.

4. There are no world beaters in this race. He will be in any superfecta I construct.

5. He was four wide in the Iroquois at CD as a two year old, never more than two or so lengths off a fast pace(:45.60 at the half, 1:10 at 6f). Yet he finished 3.5 lengths clear of the third place finisher, Super Stock(Who I also like), while losing to closer, Sittin On Go. The latter has never found similar form after that career best effort. We know CD is a quirky track that not all horses like.

6. Matched Jackie's Warrior for the best of 15 times in his most recent CD work at 5f.

7. Has followed the traditional 3 prep schedule for the Derby, following a significant juvenile campaign. Good foundation!

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/17/21

Concert Tour out. Says owner and maybe Preak in. 

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