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Rebel Stakes March 13 Oaklawn Park   Triple Crown

Started 3/11/21 by Wintertrian; 3137 views.
Gerh

From: Gerh

3/14/21

I think he said that Caddo River was pumped up and wanted to get back in front

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

3/14/21

I just watched a replay having missed the race yesterday.  

Caddo River was very eager to run free & one would think Geroux, with his experience riding the horse, would not employ such strong-arm restraint.  It hurt Caddo River's chances in two ways.  Physical & mental.

The result of the poor ride was seen in the stretch as the poor colt reeled down to the wire.

He wasn't just tired, he was mentally frayed as well.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/14/21

run free and out of control was how the live feed looked to me

after watching the replay I agree with your strong arm restraint

Sometimes the horse gets out of control and the jock doesn't stand a chance

Usually I have a lot confidence  for Geroux , well I still do nobody is perfect.

I have done well with this jock and I didn't bet the race, and I'm really surprised.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

3/14/21

Oh, I agree with you.  Geroux is a top flight talent & even those we consider the historical best of the best are not perfect.

I think it's a rather common mistake, as well, to win the battle & lose the war.  Work the horse over to restrain & take the starch out in the meanwhile.

One thing for sure is that he made Concert Tour's race a lot easier.  Baffert with another really good one.  Ho-hum.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/14/21

The NYRA circuit - New Yok jockeys as a colony, the last 5 years, to date is the best I've ever seen. 

Once Mike Smith retires the irons, even Baffert will ship from Calf. and use the NYRA riders at the big day, big card races. Owners will be insistent as well. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/21/21

Geroux is an excellent rider.  He has nothing to prove.  

Its more like the horse and jockey have to be "right" for each other, and they are not right for each other.  

I always descrribe it as "they go together like peanut butter and jelly"......that would have been Borel on Mine That Bird, for instance.  Horse trusted Borel to thread him thru a needle, and Borel knew the  horse had the courage to do it.  

Geroux isn't the right rider for Caddo River, that's all.   Agents book jockeys for TRAINERS, not the horses.  The trainer has to assign jockey to the horse.  You only have so many riders to switch around with.   

But when a horse and rider are made for each other, then you get to see something very special.  Mike Smith and Zenyatta, many of those combos in history.... but not a lot.  Special relationships are .....well.......special.   Secretariat and Eddie Sweat......it's needle in haystack territory. 

So far I'm not seeing anything out of Oaklawn this year that flips me.   It's been a strange year and I'm sure there were some horses we will just never get to see much of due to pandemic, weather, etc.  


Edit:  spelling correction of secretariat's groom last name.   
 

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

3/22/21

I'm not knocking Geroux.   I admire him as a top rider.

However, The Rebel was a bad ride.   

How can we conclude he doesn't fit the horse based on that one race?  Especially after the previous two races.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/22/21

SameSteve G said...

How can we conclude he doesn't fit the horse based on that one race? 

Because of the way Caddo River runs.  

Because we have other races to watch.  He's a pace setter.   Smarty Jones, he just goes out and then wins by 10+ lengths.   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SD8eE0FQ2W8

CHurchill, same deal:  goes to front and wins by 9 lengths.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_xJaaroaPc

This is how this horse runs.  He goes to the lead early, before the first turn, stays there, and then further distances himself from the pack in the stretch.  He can do that.  He has speed.  Pretty much same as Concern Tour on paper.   

He beat Greatest Honor at Belmont in a maiden.  He beat Greatest Honor at Saratoga, too.  Only time he didn't run on the lead back then as a youngster is because he didn't break fast enough.   They should have put him in the Gotham or Holy Bull. 

A "bad ride" to me is not getting horse into position or not ducking into a hole when it comes available, etc.  Trying to change the way a horse runs isn't a bad ride, so much as a really bad idea.  I was scratching my head watching Geroux fight that horse.  

 




Just seems to me that Geroux was trying to train the horse to stalk / rate DURING a stakes race.......that is something is done in training/workouts.  

In reply toRe: msg 21
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/22/21

Wintertrian said...

Maybe his wins were in weak  fields,

Caddo beat Greatest Honor 2x at 2 different tracks before he got into stakes races.   

And he beat Cowan, who has only run out of the money once in his entire career, who ran 2nd in the Breeder Cup Juvienile Turf Sprint,   and who after the Smarty Jones went over to Dubai and ran 2nd in the $1.5 million Al Rajih Bank Saudi Derby  (lost to a huge longshot which was a surprise to everyone).  Cowan goes from last to 2nd, who has to go 4 wide, and almost doesn't make it but "re-triggers" to duel in the last moments in the stretch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IZdS-WX31ps

So no, I don't think Caddo River has run against weak horses.  
 

I really think Caddo River MIGHT have beaten Concert Tour had he been allowed to run.  If Brad Cox isn't livid I'd be surprised. 

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