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Fla Derby   Triple Crown

Started 3/21/21 by Plus2lbs; 3988 views.
In reply toRe: msg 8
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/25/21

FL Derby was always my most favorite prep race. 
This year, I have no idea who these horses are. 

Maybe I need to study up, but sometimes I am grateful for a "just watch" race, so I don't feel pressured to cap it.   

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

3/25/21

You should feel pressure, Winter.....we depend upon your insights!

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

3/25/21

Would like to see racehorse times...

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/25/21

Here is some tidbits from bris: Florida Derby
this is to show that the designated style for a horse doesn't mean he will run that way'
from the last race each came out of. some were graded, msw, stks etc.
 

its hard to tell Greatest Honour coming out of a graded stks race early number would be 
the 3rd best from this group running early in the last race. I preferred not to put all the PP's
on here. But its the adjustment bris uses for these numbers last race coming from all kinds of races.

Early pace last race: slow for the group

1-Nova Rags p7 1st: 90 2nd, 9-Collaborate EP4 2nd 87-1st,7-Greatest Honour  S 0 3rd 85-1st 3-Jirafales S 0 4th 84-5th

Late Pace last:

8-Soup and Sandwiches EP 6) 1st 106-1st, 7-Greatest Honour  S 0 2nd 105-1st. 4-Southern Passage S 0 3rd 100-2nd, Quantum Leap EP 5 (4th98-1st.
, 11-Papetu P3, 4th 98-3rd.

Here is a race that type of horse style like E8,P7,S O, EP 4,etc shows why I seldom pay any attention
to them. Its like this a lot. early pace p7 type 1st, late pace type E P 6, 1st.'

NO E style in the Florida Derby race, where's the speed.  9 and 8???? with the 7 running 3rd ???

1-p7,2-EP 5, 3-s o,4-S 0, 5-P4, 6 -S1,7 -S 0, 8-EP 6,9-EP 4, 10-P2, 11-P3 (11 entrants)

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/25/21

And to All. IMO

"E" Gads! YES..Noted you are not putting attention to the numbas.

The numbers (from different races) show only who was early but in perhaps in many cases did not continue on to Win. Or hit the board. And..Early Es Don't account for bad break out of gate, bumping/blocked, carried out/in or just runners style of intentionally lagging behind as a closer style.

And there is no, say, track variant to make a comparative number. How fast the track. Speed is a timed factor.

The ultimate winner Greatest Honor held along (with measured jockey positioning and timing) the rail and made his right hand turn to the outside, then finished out as he is a closer to convincingly win. This 3 second maneuver can only be a negative number outcome in the calculation.

In my post last week. My pick of Hot Rod Charlie noted he 'lost' 3 critical seconds in his last race going into Louie Derb. And would relish the near Derby distance 

As for Greatest Honour, recent posts here noted the pros and cons of jockey and horse race riding compatibility.

Jose Ortiz and Greatest Honour are connected like Legos.

  • Edited March 25, 2021 11:04 pm  by  DogsUp
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/25/21

DogsUp said:

"E" Gads! YES..Noted you are not putting attention to the numbas.

are you kidding I have all their races right here in front of me.

I posted this exercise because so many on here talk a lot about bris

designated racing types and used the last race as an example

Every thing else you said is obvious cappin.

Like you are the only one  that uses the type of tool box you talk about.

Pedigreestar

From: Pedigreestar

3/26/21

I have shortlisted as under winnner should emerge

1) Quantum Leap

2) Southern Passage

3) Sigiloso

4) Greatest Honour

5) Colloborate

6) Speilberg.

My Personal choice is Colloborate and Quantum Leap or Sigiloso for upset.

Ravi Gowande

Pedigreestar

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/26/21

Hi Ravi!   Always good to see you and your very interesting picks. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/26/21

princeofdoc said...

Yes, both are talented colts, and will be trying hard, certainly.....but for both, 1st time Lasix, as well as distance, and up in weights.....I think Collaborative will try to steal it, with S&S not far behind.  If they get out with soft fractions, could certainly last, but I like Known Agenda and GH to run them down.

The bomb could be Jirafales....I'll be playing him in the exotics, though I question no published works since his last.  Wondering why Romans is running Southern Passage back so quickly, there are other opportunities for a prep....

Castellano is taking Spielberg, he's a tough one to figure.....if the race was at Los Al, I'd give him a shot!

I was wavering between Collaborate and Known Agenda for the win..... decided to go with KA, I am not ready to put $$ on Collaborate with only 2 maidens under his belt, if he is an improving up-and-coming and can get 2 turns he will prove it on Sat and make the gate.  I mean, the odds won't be THAT great on him.  

Bombs for any kind of exotics might be Southern Passage or Quantum Leap. 

Honor doesn't have to win this, and there would be no shame in not doing so. 

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

3/26/21

To be honest, I never really understood the comment "doesn't have to win" in the Derby preps.....sure, he'll still qualify if he doesn't win, but why would he not run his best?  The only thing I could imagine would be not taking any chances weaving through traffic and pushing him to win, but if he gets a clear path, he certainly could still win.

I don't think he has been pushed in his previous two, so I think he is capable of much more...

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