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Ark Derby   Triple Crown

Started 4/4/21 by princeofdoc; 3122 views.
In reply toRe: msg 29

From: Wintertrian


For the record, any horse out of the AR Derby this year is far down on my ticket, if on there at all. 
Caddo River can't rate, and pretty sure Concert Tour can't, either...they are not natural stalkers, and unless you think either one can go gate to wire, I just don't think either would have enough left over for that extra distance in the Derby.

Super Stock isn't "super" enough in anything, but I'm willing to see how he progresses.  

Looking elsewhere for a KY Derby winner.   Of course Baffert has between now and then to give majick/contamination so who knows what kind of *peak* CT will achieve in the next few weeks, eh?

I just wanted Caddo River to redeem himself, that was all.   I still think he should skip it and go in the Preakness.  





I think Super Stock is improving. Third off the layoff in the Derby might put him right there.


From: DogsUp


& All.. When one hears a drummer play 4 or 5 tunes or looks at 6 to 10 pieces of an artist's works. Is what it is. And like evaluating a colt's body of work visual,PPs, chart and other info read.

If the colt is an ordinary of the 20 KDyers, got to go longer than how he got/gets to 9 fl.

Their next work/performance they are not likely to come out swinging like Buddy Rich or looking like a Picasso.


From: smartyslew


Winter, I'm like you,

I think the first 3 in the Arkansas Derby are distance challenged

The 2 speedballs were rank and  finished 2nd and 3rd,

The winner gave the Illusion that he was closing and the splits suggest the 2 speedballs were backing up

and this was on a fast track.  final time 1:50.92. Caddo and Concert came home in over 40 seconds ,last 3 furlongs.

Super Stock last Q was 26.22,... last I heard Both front Runners are on hold for the Derby.

Gary West is leaving it up to Baffert to decide. Baffert might take him  to CD to see his works on that track.

Arkansas Derby Splits: 
Caddo River-2nd by 2 1/2  Arkansas Derby
22.62, 23.89, 24,74, 26.49, 13.68
22.62, 46.51,71.25, 97.74,111.42, last Q 26.93
Concert Tour-3rd by 2 1/2  Arkansas
22.72, 23.89, 24.67, 26.36, 13.80
22.72, 46.61, 71.28,97.64, 111.44 last Q 27.08 
Super Stock-1st by 2 1/2   bsf 92 Arkansas Derby
22.92, 24.00,24.73,26.10, 13.17
22.92, 46.92, 71.65,97.75, 110.92 last Q26.22



Slowest Arkansas Derby since Overanalyze won in 2013. I was fooled by Concert Tour's Rebel Stakes, visually, it was a carbon copy of American Pharoah's run.


From: smartyslew


Is this Mixed Messages , was the Carbon Copy of American Pharoah's run positive or negative.



Thought it was a positive at the time, then he laid an egg in the Arkansas Derby. Not the world beater he looked like he'd be.

In reply toRe: msg 38



Again I have to look at race times in context. I think it's a shame that no horse from the Wood will compete in the Derby except the 1 and 2 finishers. I think they were beneficiaries of factors specific to the Aqueduct surface. When you look at the race chart, 3 of the 4 bottom finishers(Prevalence, Market Maven, and Candy Man Rocket),  were said to have "tired" or "weakened" despite fractions well below what they had successful put up in races not that much shorter. Clearly, when you look at all the races on the card, except maybe the Carter, all the opening fractions were similarly "slow", with frontrunners not particularly benefitting.

The conclusion that I have come to, is that the surface was exceptionally tiring and cumbersome. That would not be good for horses running what actually amounted to "quick" fractions on that surface. Another, thing I noticed is that Dynamic One and Bourbonic were the only horses not compromised by the pace, that did not have any layoff since at least November of last year. They were perhaps the fittest horses in the race, with the added benefit of racing off the pace. In other words, the race set up perfectly for them, given the way the track was playing. They basically ran their races, while every other horse, that came into the race with superior resumes, ran poorly. What are the chances?

Highly Motivated, who did have some trouble in the Gotham, but who I don't think necessarily wins the race anyway, was able to return to form with a big run against perhaps the prohibitive favorite for the Derby. I think that several horses from the Wood, will redeem themselves upon their return to a track other than Aqueduct. On the positive side, they should have gotten substantial conditioning from racing over that surface. Unfortunately, none will likely get the chance to show what they are truly made of in the Kentucky Derby. I may end up eating crow, but neither Bourbonic nor Dynamic One, will get a cent of my money bet on them, to win, place, or show! Wow, I'm a poet and don't even know it!

  • Edited April 14, 2021 10:08 am  by  RAESFAN