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Ark Derby   Triple Crown

Started 4/4/21 by princeofdoc; 3100 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

4/13/21

Winter, I'm like you,

I think the first 3 in the Arkansas Derby are distance challenged

The 2 speedballs were rank and  finished 2nd and 3rd,

The winner gave the Illusion that he was closing and the splits suggest the 2 speedballs were backing up

and this was on a fast track.  final time 1:50.92. Caddo and Concert came home in over 40 seconds ,last 3 furlongs.

Super Stock last Q was 26.22,... last I heard Both front Runners are on hold for the Derby.

Gary West is leaving it up to Baffert to decide. Baffert might take him  to CD to see his works on that track.
 

Arkansas Derby Splits: 
Caddo River-2nd by 2 1/2  Arkansas Derby
22.62, 23.89, 24,74, 26.49, 13.68
22.62, 46.51,71.25, 97.74,111.42, last Q 26.93
-
Concert Tour-3rd by 2 1/2  Arkansas
22.72, 23.89, 24.67, 26.36, 13.80
22.72, 46.61, 71.28,97.64, 111.44 last Q 27.08 
--
Super Stock-1st by 2 1/2   bsf 92 Arkansas Derby
22.92, 24.00,24.73,26.10, 13.17
22.92, 46.92, 71.65,97.75, 110.92 last Q26.22
cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

4/13/21

Slowest Arkansas Derby since Overanalyze won in 2013. I was fooled by Concert Tour's Rebel Stakes, visually, it was a carbon copy of American Pharoah's run.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

4/13/21

Is this Mixed Messages , was the Carbon Copy of American Pharoah's run positive or negative.

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

4/13/21

Thought it was a positive at the time, then he laid an egg in the Arkansas Derby. Not the world beater he looked like he'd be.

In reply toRe: msg 38
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

4/14/21

Again I have to look at race times in context. I think it's a shame that no horse from the Wood will compete in the Derby except the 1 and 2 finishers. I think they were beneficiaries of factors specific to the Aqueduct surface. When you look at the race chart, 3 of the 4 bottom finishers(Prevalence, Market Maven, and Candy Man Rocket),  were said to have "tired" or "weakened" despite fractions well below what they had successful put up in races not that much shorter. Clearly, when you look at all the races on the card, except maybe the Carter, all the opening fractions were similarly "slow", with frontrunners not particularly benefitting.

The conclusion that I have come to, is that the surface was exceptionally tiring and cumbersome. That would not be good for horses running what actually amounted to "quick" fractions on that surface. Another, thing I noticed is that Dynamic One and Bourbonic were the only horses not compromised by the pace, that did not have any layoff since at least November of last year. They were perhaps the fittest horses in the race, with the added benefit of racing off the pace. In other words, the race set up perfectly for them, given the way the track was playing. They basically ran their races, while every other horse, that came into the race with superior resumes, ran poorly. What are the chances?

Highly Motivated, who did have some trouble in the Gotham, but who I don't think necessarily wins the race anyway, was able to return to form with a big run against perhaps the prohibitive favorite for the Derby. I think that several horses from the Wood, will redeem themselves upon their return to a track other than Aqueduct. On the positive side, they should have gotten substantial conditioning from racing over that surface. Unfortunately, none will likely get the chance to show what they are truly made of in the Kentucky Derby. I may end up eating crow, but neither Bourbonic nor Dynamic One, will get a cent of my money bet on them, to win, place, or show! Wow, I'm a poet and don't even know it!

  • Edited April 14, 2021 10:08 am  by  RAESFAN
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/14/21

All very sensible Raes.  A less tiring track—and we all know CD will be concrete on Derby Day—would logically make t much harder on colts like Bourbonic and Dynamic One to reel in the front runners but I’m looking for some closers to hit the super with all the speed up front.  And the Wood has been good underneath in the derby.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

4/14/21

the Wood has been good underneath in the derby.

Which kind of supports my theory that it sends fit horses to the Derby, while not necessarily its best horses. Okay, I may stretching it a bit!

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/14/21

Lol. The derby’s just a different animal altogether.  Everyone thinks about the pace up front (which you have to do) but most people don’t stop to think about all the stresses on the herd in the middle.  It seems like just about every year 1st and usually 2nd go to the close up pressers and then 3rd and 4th are the stretch runners picking up the pieces.  I’ve often thought that a big reason for this is that it’s simply less stressful on a horse to be out in front of most of the pack, or far enough behind it to not be involved in most of the bumping/compression etc. that goes on.  I might be way off base and have never really researched it, just my impression.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/14/21

RAESFAN said...

I think Super Stock is improving. Third off the layoff in the Derby might put him right there.

After I saw his deboarding video at CDX, he looks like a nervous nelly type -- Bundle of nerves---- I don't think that's a good sign. 
Maybe he needs a few days to adapt. 

We really do put them thru a lot, not to mention the sheer stress of the kind of race dynamic they will have to run, like oldbettowin mentions. 

Sometimes I have trouble with the *concept* overall.  Asking a lot of very young horses, and then it's no big surprise that some of them never win a race again after just being IN the KY Derby.   

I would be the kind of owner that doesn't take that shot unless I had knew my horse was a cross of Godzilla, Sergient Reckless, Marengo and Bucephalus.    

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