ChiefsCrown said...

Looking up Casse's runners, the last 10 yrs, he missed the derby in '11, '13, '14 & '16. He did finish ITM, 4th w/Classic Empire in '17 and 5th w/Danzig Moon (RIP) in '15. Other than those two he's had a 7th, 7th, 13th and 18th finish. Hope Helium does well, i do think he'll have a shot of blowing up the exotics come May 1. He will be overlooked by the bettors. I'll take a shot and say he's a +30/1.

Casse has been snakebit at OP for a number of years, and at CD, too......but sometimes that just magically disappears.  But point taken.  I  think 30-1 is about right for opening M/L for Helium, but he might even drift up from there.     I'm not going to box EQ and Rock Your World, or EQ and Concert Tour, I can tell you that.   It's once a year!!.  I don't need to be "right" about horses, we all have more than enough laurels to rest on here.   I just want another Country House derby.   :)   Even  EQ is vulnerable........ANY horse is vulnerable in a chaos race like the KY Derby. Probably moreso than any other race that I can think of.   

My job this week is to rewatch the Southwest and Rebel Stakes carefully 

 

Wintertrian said:

My job this week is to rewatch the Southwest and Rebel Stakes carefully 

That's Your back in the saddle Sneaky longshot play and toss !

:)

ChiefsCrown said...

Because this: Hole #2...Looking up Casse's runners, the last 10 yrs, he missed the derby in '11, '13, '14 & '16. He did finish ITM, 4th w/Classic Empire in '17 and 5th w/Danzig Moon (RIP) in '15. Other than those two he's had a 7th, 7th, 13th and 18th finish. Hope Helium does well, i do think he'll have a shot of blowing up the exotics come May 1. He will be overlooked by the bettors. I'll take a shot and say he's a +30/1.

Casse has Soup and Sandwich besides his Helium guy.  I like both of them, actually. 

In this moment I have to think that one of the Casse horses has to be a consideration to hit the ticket when all is said and done.  I think this one ran a better race than the FL Derby winner, but not taking anything away from the winner, Known Agenda, who has killer stamina sort of like Rombauer has, if you look at their sire side DP. 

There's a number of things that have to happen first, see if horses on the bubble make the gate, see if the track is going to come up muddy which will give some advantage to some of the horses on the list, etc.    Another one I really like for instance is OBesos.  He's pretty far down on the bubble though but we don't know what the attrition is going to be yet for those that have secured a gate spot. 

Looks like Leparoux will ride him in the derby per Paulick Report

Gerh said...

s for long shots,Rombauer impressed me over the weekend.Good ride by Geroux

I have a feeling he is better for the belmont.  Was looking at timeform stuff and his last furlong isn't fast enough to win I don't think? He can take his time in the BEL and run em down because he has the lungs to do so. Of course so do many others, I have a feeling that is going to be the most exciting race of the TC series this year. 

This is why I hope O Besos gets in.  I think he ran the fastest adj. last furlong of any horse besides Known Agenda so far.....

Thanks.

Gerh said...

Leparoux will ride him in the derby per Paulick Report

I don't know much about Lep to be honest.  What's the general 411 on him? 

Most people put a little more faith in jockey than I do........I think you gotta have "have horse under you" to begin with, as JV found out with Medina Spirit......he just couldn't get the horse to accelerate.  Horse didn't have it. 

For what it’s worth,I think Leparoux fits him pretty well.

I expect Rombauer to have more pace to run at in the derby

Thank you again about Lep, and yes, you are correct about having more pace to run at.  Thank you for filling in the spaces of my brain burps.
I really respect your feedback.