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Helium- Mark Casse runnner   Triple Crown

Started 4/4/21 by Wintertrian; 5174 views.
ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

4/6/21

Definately in agreement on your post! Yeah, post position and track condition is a big part in betting. Forgot about S & S. Johnny V will be up on Soup? If Soup does win headlines read...."Soup's On"?

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

4/6/21

If you want a Country House derby (minus the DQ, hopefully) you could start with Bourbonic or Dynamic One! Both will be overlooked and at huge odds. I'm on the Bourbonic wagon for a long shot to hit the board. He's a Bernardini colt and i think he's going to like the added distance. Just hopefully he's not as far back as Mine That Bird was. Hoping Carmouche retains the mount.

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/6/21

Chief...WADR..Bourbonic got there because 6 furlongs in the Wood were 1:15 and 'change. The track was dullsville.

Ergo, in the Derby, say 1:11 and ticks B could be 15 lengths or more behind at mile.  No less.

If you read my Wood thread comments, here, I did say the Philly colts had chance of big upset ticket. On the Wood surface based on Thurs + Friday's lackluster time at distance races. 

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

4/6/21

So then i can read into your post you'd dismiss both Bourbonic and Dynamic One in the derby as board hitters per slow Big A track Condition?

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

4/6/21

They wouldn't win in a a scripted movie..

Even if the Derby came up sloppy.....

Mine That Bird was 2 YO Canadian champ. Ran fast numbers. Sunland before Derby was 2nd. And magic Derby jockey Borel.

Todd Pletcher did his job.

Got client running at Parx to a Derby  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/7/21

ChiefsCrown said...

If you want a Country House derby (minus the DQ, hopefully) you could start with Bourbonic or Dynamic One! Both will be overlooked and at huge odds.

I don't overlook ANY horse (yet) for a board hit, unless they don't make the gate and/or their name is Weyburn.  
I like Bourbonic.  Nice homebred and has enough speed to motor from the back, and I think he can get 10F.  

I don't know enough about Dynamic One or if his 40 points will allow him to keep a place in the gate after the next prep races?  until I'm sure about that I'm not going to look at him too hard.  He had to go so wide in the Wood, I was amazed he got to the wire in 2nd place, actually.  

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

4/7/21

Dynamic One basically was a maiden winner before the Wood Memorial. Bourbonic is not on anyone's list for the derby. 

Rebel's Romance, Weyburn and i think Crowded Trade will not run in the derby.

Next 3 in would be Rombauer (not a lock to run yet), Proxy and Hidden Stash. Don't think any of those 3 will get ITM.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

4/7/21

Greatest Honour is out of the derby, next one in is Dream Shake.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/7/21

ChiefsCrown said...

next one in is Dream Shake.

I think that will change after ARK Derby.  
If you think rombauer, proxy and hidden stash can't do anything, I'm pretty sure Dream Shake is in the same situation.  :) 
Its why I hope Obesos gets in.   LA Derby dead last to almost 2nd, settled for 3rd, but looked like he got hung up in traffic in that last turn..another furlong and he had a shot at 2nd for sure.   Do you like him at all?   He probably won't get in though. :( 

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

4/7/21

Obezos ran a bang up Louisiana Derby. Might be a good longshot play on May 1.

I still like Hot Rod Charlie, Midnight Bourbon and Known Agenda for a trifecta play. All 3 seem to be E/P style runners which seem to play well for the derby.

As far as the Arkansas, i like Hozier to win. Caddo River and Concert Tour likely a speed dual up front opens the door for Hozier and possibly Last Samurai.

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