This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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The way I view the field is that almost any of them can finish 3rd & all of them can finish 4th, given the ultra-chaotic, trippy nature of the KD.
There is a lot of luck involved, not only racing luck but also, for lack of a better term, a rather intangible confluence inside the mind of the handicapper that synthesizes to the correct degree what stands as reasonable conclusions & intuitive conclusions. A too dry approach doesn't have enough imagination stirred in & a purely intuitive approach doesn't have enough concretized information stirred in.
Sometimes the first flash one gets about a horse's chances needs to be held onto & other times that flash needs to be let go of.
The process is a very interesting subject, IMO.
I think both Helium & Soupy could land 3rd or 4th, just like almost the entire field. :)
I agree wholeheartedly, Steve.....the whole field could definitely finish 4th, not sure about 3rd, but most of them anyway. 1st and 2nd is a whole other story :)
EQ, Highly Motivated, and Concert Tour are the ones I believe have the best chance to finish 1st and 2nd, pending works. As I have a very generous futures ticket on Hidden Stash, I am giving him a longshot chance, fully aware of my bias.
Rombauer now out, leaving O Besos just one more defection away, giving Winter more hope....
Known Agenda may be good enough to crack top 2, needs perfect circumstances to unfold....
Yes it's a real conundrum this year. Maybe just a "paper bet" for me.
I will disagree with you on concert tour though, he has pretty much proved he is not a "real" 10F horse IMHO and didn't run like one. Even in the oaklawn races, he sure didn't beat G1 level horses. That was a swoop-in-and-get-the-money move.
At the very least, we know that EQ is a *consistent* horse. You can count on him to do something right.
Well, your friend BB apparently agrees with you :)
CT is now pointed toward the Preakness.....leaving a coveted spot for O Besos!
Prince I just have this strange feeling that CT won't make the Preakness. Can't put my finger on it but something not right with that horse.......I think he may have breathing problems and/or in addition to not being able to pass horses going 9F. Something isn't adding up here.
I'm usually about as far afield from conspiracy theories as you can get.........but when it comes to Baffert.......
Remember guys, there are two horses that have the initials "CT". Concert Tour and Crowded Trade. Both are being pointed to the Preakness. Just for clarity, we might want to write their names out.
Perhaps BB is finally thinking about the horse, perhaps with help from the owners. He got started late, rushed into stakes competition, and he may need more time....OR, as you say, there is something wrong with the horse.
Now that i drafted Helium I watched the TB replay. Looks like he ran 1 1/8 being so wide plus he toyed with everyone . He bolted to the lead after the last turn and then said oh well ho him mow what?? and the the Stash pulled up and Helium said no way here I go again!!!! Im biased for sure but if this horse is like I hope I better put some action on him atb. He may surprise!!!! North
Northof64 said...I watched the TB replay
He went 5 wide and just ran everyone down. Why I started the topic on him......because he "belongs" in the race.
I never ignore an undefeated horse. However, he's a tad shy on a number of the "factors" that people use. But that's heck of a lot better than using a horse based on nothing more than "the Baffert factor" esp. when they haven't run well.
As I was thinking about the KY Derby, I just saw the prohibitive favorite in an Australian race toss his rider.
Well gosh, steal my horse for the contest and now you're a fan. LOL Just kidding.
Hey I went back and watched his early races in the Display Stakes where he stalked then went 3-4 wide and burst past everyone by 4 lengths.
Then I watched his earliest maiden race. He "dueled" with Excellorator, a horse who really "digs in" and just won the Frederico Tesio Stakes last week at 1-1/8 (but was DQed to 2nd) but Helium won that maiden race against that horse by over 3 lengths as a maiden.
Just saying I don't think Helium is a wimp. And his Tampa Derby was great. Helium is still one of my longshots if he draws close to the rail. i acutally like both of Casse's horses.
By the way everyone hates Leparoux it seems??????
Can you find the topic where we discussed the horses who did better at 1-1/16th that (maybe dumb, maybe not) angle you and I came up with? I lost the topic!