Northof64 said...

I watched the TB replay

He went 5 wide and just ran everyone down.  Why I started the topic on him......because he "belongs" in the race.  
I never ignore an undefeated horse.  However, he's a tad shy on a number of the "factors" that people use.   But that's heck of a lot better than using a horse based on nothing more than "the Baffert factor" esp. when they haven't run well. 

As I was thinking about the KY Derby, I just saw the prohibitive favorite in an Australian race toss his rider.  

 

Well gosh, steal my horse for the contest and now you're a fan.  LOL  Just kidding. 

Hey I went back and watched his early races in the Display Stakes where he stalked then went 3-4 wide and burst past everyone by 4 lengths. 

Then I watched his earliest maiden race.  He "dueled" with Excellorator, a horse who really "digs in" and just won the Frederico Tesio Stakes last week at 1-1/8 (but was DQed to 2nd) but Helium won that maiden race against that horse by over 3 lengths as a maiden.  

Just saying I don't think Helium is a wimp.  And his Tampa Derby was great.   Helium is still one of my longshots if he draws close to the rail.  i acutally like both of Casse's horses.  


By the way everyone hates Leparoux it seems??????

Can you find the topic where we discussed the horses who did better at 1-1/16th that (maybe dumb, maybe not) angle you and I came up with?  I lost the topic!

Message 176 under dogs derby diary we talk about it. You definitely got me looking at helium. I appreciate it. 

When I watch the TB Derby I see two things.  The first, a horse came wide around the turn, angled in and held off a challenger to win.  The second thing is except for Moonlite something, every horse that was near the front in the early going finished up the track.  One makes me think he could be one to watch while the other makes me think he was just picking off lower class horses but I don’t know.  Brisnet and the Racing Post just gave it a meh.

Oldbettowin said...

Brisnet and the Racing Post just gave it a meh.

Is this the same Brisnet that had Animal Kingdom as 8th choice at 30-1 in 2011?  And said he was switching to a low % jockey?
(despite Alborado rode him in his first 2 races where he did great when horse was with Catalano).
Motion put him on Turf in Florida, then ran him on all weather at 1-1/8 in the Spiral where he won.  
And went BACK to Alborado for the Derby.  (I forgot why?) 

I look at their stats on the horses for data........ not their opinions. 


Hey, not saying Helium is my pick to win.  I don'tknow yet.  I like another AW horse in here as well as a few of the pletcher's too. 
 

Well what I just posted was my opinion.  I don’t know anything about Brisnet’s opinion except to the extent it’s reflected in their speed rating.  AK was kind of the “exception that proves the rule” as far as AW runners go.  His best race after the derby was the Dubai World Cup (which was tapeta at the time) but boy did he take to the CD surface, which is probably what drove his odds down from the 30-1 ml to 21-1.  
 

If you hear anything similar about one loving the Churchill surface, all weather or otherwise, make sure you let us know lol.

One other thing to keep in mind about Helium—and Hidden Stash— is that the one he edged out in Tampa came back four weeks later and lost to EQ & HM by 10 lengths in the Bluegrass.  It might not mean anything as far as Helium is concerned, but then again it might.

As I’ve mentioned before, there are some things about him I do like but they’re mostly esoteric and not performance based.  Sometimes esoteric wins the day though :)

Oldbettowin said...

One other thing to keep in mind about Helium—and Hidden Stash— is that the one he edged out in Tampa came back four weeks later and lost to EQ & HM by 10 lengths in the Bluegrass.  

That's a good point.   
But it also relies on what your thought of that race (Bluegrass) in general, and hence, the horses coming out of it.  I did due dilligence and watch all his other races by pulling up replays on my twinspires account.  Horses who win at Woodbine tend to get ignored anyway, as we saw with mine that bird. 

As I've noted, Helium is short a few straws on so many angles, including his pedigree on both sides for this, he's an almost in so many ways. Being an "almost" is usually not good enough in the KY Derby. 

It's just that I can't "un-see" his race at Tampa, running 5 wide, inhaling ground, his first time on dirt and first time in a route.  When a horse does stuff like that, "first time" in more than one area,  I have to notice.  Born in April, by the way.  Different than being born in January. 

Also Jon white gave him only 1 strike.  But there are others he gave good scores, too, Like A King has zero strikes, another horse I like......and there are other horses I do like since I don't think Helium has the speed that many of this bunch has. 

I'm just responding since I started the topic.  I could / should have started a topic about Obesos (will put Midnight Bourbon to shame),  or Sainthood (born in May), both of whom I like a whole bunch! Both run off the pace. 

Obesos - been at CD since early April:
--5f, Mar 12th, in 1:00.80 @FG
--4f, April 5th, in 49.00 @CD
--5f, April 13th, in 1:00.60 @CD
.  

I still like Helium and he was supplemented into the Derby.
This is not the right race for him, the Belmont might be though. 

.I realize he is probably not Street Sense, who went from Tampa Derby to KY Derby winner......but horses coming out of that race at Tampa usually do great in the Belmont....(Tapwrit, Destin, Tacitus).   It will be interesting to see how he runs in the Derby which requires more speed...... then I hope he goes in the Belmont.  

A big difference with Street Sense and Helium regarding their racing pre-Derby.....Yes, they both won the Tampa Derby, but 4 weeks later, SS raced in the Bluegrass, coming in 2nd.  Helium is trying to do the near impossible and work up to the race.

I'll do some research, but I certainly cannot remember the last Derby winner who hadn't raced in 8 weeks