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Triple Crown Series   Triple Crown

Started 4/18/21 by smartyslew; 26765 views.
In reply toRe: msg 168

From: smartyslew


ran sire line with la troienne in a passing position  Winner not here
Known Agenda,  Overtook, Rebels Romance
Rock Your World, Rombauer, 
no la troienne in a passing position-  winner is good
,France Go De Ina
5 generation black type winners:23
Essential Q. 31 
reine 5 gen 10:1 pt
BPT conduits in 5 gen
Essential Q 13---1st
big 4 large heart in a pp= 1 pt
6sx 6d : big 4 large heart or closer=1 pt:
big 4 lh in a pp  6th generation or closer:1 pt
Overtook- Prince   otm
2 daughters or more of big red on each side in 5 generations
Essential Qualty  3          winner
10 gen dc mares Dam Side in a PP-20= 1 pt
Overtook      49
Essential Q. 38----1st
Known Agenda  29--4th
Rombauer     21---3rd
 Bourbonic 20---5th
Hot Rod Charlie 20--2nd
5 gen Double copy Large Heart  Mares
Overtook 8   0tm
Knownj Agenda 4--4th
Essential Qu.  3   1st in race
In reply toRe: msg 169

From: smartyslew


byerley and godolphan 5 gen. line 22-32-1 positive pt
Rock Your World  10
Essential Quality 7       winner
Overtook   7
France go  3
Known Agenda 6
Rebels Romance 4
Rombauer  5
n/p and byerley, godolphan lines-top 3-1 pt 
La Troienne & family 1x within 5 gen
dam side in a pp
Essential Q. 2    the winner (Strong Angle with 2)
Hot Rod Charlie-2nd
Known Agenda-4th
Overtook 2   needs a trainer
Rock Your World
bms family 1x--positive in a passing position
Rock Your World
Rombauer  3rd
Essential Qu  1st
Known Agenda  4th
trainers-past winners--no neutral angle
Bourbonic, Known Agenda,Overtook
jockeys-winners : new jock winner, these 5 are jealous with that perf. and ped.
Rosario-Rock Your World
Mike Smith-Rebels Romance
John Velazquez- Rombauer
Irad Ortiz-  Known Agenda
Manny Franco- Overtook
here is where it gets tricky for belmont winners at the time they were  3 yr olds
some have CMP stamina numbers lower than 12, like Tapwrit, Creator.
In reply toRe: msg 170

From: smartyslew


you still need to carry speed a distance of ground and having some speed helps most years to get 12 furlongs

or be a grinder like drosselmeyer. am pharoah is a freak with the B at 8 and the P at 2 off set with a 12/12 s/s

but his s/s index at 1.35 and help from his S number of 10.(Am. Pharoah incomplete Sire PON BMS is Argentina)

Not a stand alone angle.

Hot Rod Charlie    B 10,  P 3-  2nd outran his pedigree and was in great shape 
Rock Your World   B  3,   P  9  Incomplete some Argentina Pedigree
In reply toRe: msg 171

From: smartyslew


top  (CMP)conduit Mare Profiles furlong distance- pt  scored from the 16 horses in the
4th generation Sire and Mares Conduits .. Surprising front Runner Rock Your World is bred to go the
furthest distance 15.4 furlongs, Rombauer is next 14.16 furlongs. Known Agenda 13.40 furlongs.
In reply toRe: msg 172

From: smartyslew


Belmont Historical performance numbers leader board
Without my 1/8 pole Chart
1st 4 in order ,cold superfecta.
1st  Essential Quality           --
2nd  Hot Rod Charlie           -1 behind 
3rd  Rombauer                   -2
4th  Known Agenda            -6
5th  Overtook                    -9
6th  Rock y. World             -11
7th  Bourbonic                  -12 behind first
8th  France Go                   N/A
In reply toRe: msg 173

From: smartyslew



Belmont Contenders pedigree score.

The lowest knocks from historical guidelines for 12f win.


Essential Quality   7   1st   best angles first in Belmont

Overtook             11

Rock Your World   11

Known Agenda     11

Rombauer            16

Bourbonic            22

France Go De Ina  22

Hot Rod Charlie    26   8th  2nd place, scored 2nd in performnce angles

In reply toRe: msg 174

From: smartyslew


2021 Belmont contenders historical performance and pedigree  totals
low score has the best number and least knocks and strikes.
1st is the best score to win the belmont and all scores is for the Win only .
 This combined score is used to see who has the best chance to get 12 furlongs
combining Performance and Pedigree Historical  scoring to project the 12f winner.
1st Essential Quality       10  yup the winner
2nd Known Agenda         20
3rd Rombauer                21
4th Overtook                 23
5th Rock Your World       25
6th Hot Rod Charlie        30
7th Bourbonic                 37
8th France Go De Ina      41
In reply toRe: msg 175

From: smartyslew


I still like Essential Quality to Win This race , he is the last one left from the 4 I liked at the Start of the Year. I can't bet him at the odds I think he will go off at. I will use him in my exotics. He is my pick

and I don't think anyone can beat him and when I feel this strong  about a horse I use in Picks,

Doubles,  and of course Exactas, tri's, Supers, etc. Sometimes in 8 horse fields when I 

Strongly like a horse I'll wheel him in a tri .. him with all/with all . It depends on how many horses

are single digits in the field and the final odds and right now 5 are single digits and 2-1

on EQ is to low. $1 cost is all/ with 7 x6 =$42 per $1 unit . I might do a longshot play

with Overtook ,he could be ready to wake up. If I make money playing other races

I might use that for the Longshot play.


From: Oldbettowin


It doesn’t bother you that an api-ran has never won the Belmont?  I think if I bet it at all it’s just going to be another $20 on Rombauer lol.  And even then probably only if he goes off at least 4-1 or so.


From: smartyslew


Not at all I like this better Whats in the 5 generations
I use before The Sire and Bms Nicks its what is fed from the Engine room

the 6th and 7th Generation In this case all of the sires and Mares from family

branches 13c and family 2f  9 of one and 7 of the other within the 5 generations

8 from family 1x is a bonus  and seven (7) foundation of family 8 and 5 meets the

Standards I use. Also I like at least 2 daughters Of big red in the window of time

today, but there is 3 daughters of big red all in the 4th generations Dams of Sires all in the 3rd

Generation API, Gone West, Storm Cat all 3 from different Sire Lines, 2 on the dam side one on the Sire line, one in the Bms line, Storm Cat bred to the 3rd  Dam 1x who also traces  to Princequillo and LaTroienne.

for me this trumps  Sire/Bms nicks. when the occasion comes up.

Essential Quality  Tapit/ Mr P 1x(8)3o,13c(9) 7 2f,              (7)