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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 149795 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-14

the 3 from the Florida Derby run differently and the element problems  and 2 of them forwardly placed

in the Derby and Simplification not, Finishing 4th here and Epicenters style with good splits 

Suggest to me the first 4 in the Derby got good rides and or good trips or both. they earned It imo

I like it if a horse can run each split 25.40 or faster when they grow into the 9 furlong splits and or part of growing

only one slow Quarter in a race sometimes is needed because of the pace.. Jenny Rees couldn't figure out how to

do Final Quarter times in 8.5f , even 9f races and others  not mentioning any names when Dr Romans formula works better and final 12.70  1/8 final and 25.40 final Quarters are more accurate in hundreds and not using fifths and 13 Final 1/8 is a joke.
They used those numbers and struggled because they were not good a math and came up with 13 second final 1.8 

and gave up on final q times. and now many use that systemin or 5/16 time or 3/8 time.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-14

from Message 1111 How they did in the Peter Pan today

Winner We the People wired the field: won by 10 1/4 lengths

233, :471, 1:111, 1:353, 1:481    (:23.66, :47.24, 1:11.25, 1:35.63, 1:48.27)

23.66, 23.58,24.01, 24.38, 12.64 Last 1/8 , 1.48.27 final, Last Q  24.83

-

Pars 91 97/89  speed 97  None  Peter Pan G3

Golden Glider P3)  86 97/92 speed 96
-----------
run style  E races won  38% EP 42%P 12% S 8%, no EP entered 
Post bias Rail 19%, 1-3 19%, 4-7  14%, 8+ 0.00
----
Early Pace :
96 Cooke Creek 95 Set Sail 92 We the People 86 Golden Glider 85 Electability 79 State Planning 78 Complete Agenda 70 Western Riv
----
Late Pace 99 Western River 94 Electability 92 Complete Agenda 92 Golden Glider 89 State Planning 87 Set Sail 71 We the People 50 Cooke Creek
--
Last  Quarter  25.40> faster : Electability(E5) 8f- 24.98 L, We The People(E) 2 back ,last g1,8.5f- 24.27-L,
Western River (So) 8.5 f,25.00 Lb, , Cook Creek (P4)N/A 2 bad off tracks No L BG last
----
Only Mdn winner: Set Sail, Complete Agenda, Western River,
Raced in gr stakes: We The People g1 Ark Derby 7th,Golden, Gilder 2 g3, Last g1 BG 4th 96,
Cooke Creek 2 G3  71,86,
---
Box these 4 or wheel: Set Sail (pedigree play) We The People WON, Golden Glider-2nd, Electability 3rd with Cooke Creek
underneath
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It was a  Chalky race and was capped without knowing the odds. 50 cent tri paid $22, if you boxed 4 you made
$10 per 50 cent unit cost $12. 
---
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-15

I must not be good at it either because I just got RS’ final Q in the Jeff Ruby at 24.99.  Of course I didn’t even look at him before the derby so it wouldn’t have mattered.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-15

Dangerous style for the Belmont! If he can set a moderate, fairly uncontested pace, he could easily hit the board!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-15

How the Lasix free  Kentucky Derby runners did  along side 
the Lasix used Runners carrying 126 pounds and their Last Q time
2nd thru 9th finishers Keeeland sale, also  15,19,20,
---
25.40 or faster Last Q historical time 1st,3,4,5,6 met guidelines all ,L free. 
-------
L users Last Q 7th 25.82, 10th 27.68, 12-27.83,14- 27.19,
17-29.37,18- 31.93,19 33.16
----------
1st Rich Strike  24.30
2nd Epicenter  25.64 missed by .24 close to the lead, ran 6f  1.10.68
3rd Zandon   25.39
4th Simplification  25.05
5th Mo Donegal  24.82
6th Barber Road  24.87
7th Tawny Port *L user 25.82
8th Smile Happy  26.66
9th Tiz The Bomb 26.40  turfer
10 Zozos  *L user  27.68
11Classic Causeway 26.95
12 Taiba  *L user 27.83
13 Crown Pride  28.70
14 Happy Jack *L  27.19
15 Messier  28.92
16 White Abarrio  28.06
17 Charge It   *L  29.37,
18 Cyberknife  *L  31.93
19 Pioneer Of Medina *L  33.16
20 Summer Is Tomorrow  35.42 spent fireball
--
Gerh

From: Gerh

May-15

103 Beyer.If he gets his way on the lead,he could win.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-16

Finally a race he didn't get in to trouble, He needs to do that again with that good action displayed in this race.

Will Pratt be on him ?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-16

Preakness Post Position 5/21/22 Pimlico

ost Horse Trainer Dosage Jockey M/L
Odds
1 Simplification Antonio Sano 1.22 John Velazquez 6-1
2 Creative Minister Ken McPeek 1.91 Brian Hernandez Jr. 10-1
3 Fenwick Kevin McKathan 2.50 Florent Geroux 50-1
4 Secret Oath D. Wayne Lukas 8.60 Luis Saez 9-2
5 Early Voting Chad Brown 1.00 Jose Ortiz 7-2
6 Happy Jack Doug O'Neill 2.38 Tyler Gaffalione 30-1
7 Armagnac Tim Yakteen 1.57 Irad Ortiz Jr. 12-1
8 Epicenter Steve Asmussen 0.60 Joel Rosario 6-5
9 Skippylongstocking Saffie Joseph Jr. 3.00 Junior Alvarado 20-1

-----

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-16

5/20/22 Pimlico : Black Eyed Susan : Looks like a Betting Race

---

From the rail out, the field for the Black-Eyed Susan is: 13 entrants
Divine Huntress, 15-1; 
Missy Greer, 20-1;
Miss Yearwood, 20-1; 
Midnight Stroll, 15-1; 
Beguine, 12-1; 
Luna Belle, 9-2; 
Distinctlypossible, 6-1; 
Candy Light, 20-1; 
Interstatedaydream, 6-1; 
Adare Manor, 5-2; 
Radio Days, 12-1; 
Favor, 8-1;  
Morning Matcha, 30-1. 
----
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-17

2022 Preakness 5/21/22 Race 13: by post position
-
Name, Bris Classification, tail female family number
Conduit Classification , Sire/Bms rf =Rasmussen Factor
Nick or Long Nick Sire/Bms line
-
Nick = Preakness winner Sire/Bms Lines
-
1 Simplification EP4  16g (IS)Storm Cat/ Candy Ride rf,
Long Nick: Storm Cat/ Fappiano  Shackleford 2011 2f
-
2 Creative Minister P1 8d (B)  Storm Cat/ Tapit
Long Nick : Nor Dan/ Bold Ruler Louis Quatorze 1996 3m
Real Long Nick: Northern Dancer/ Bold Ruler Summer Squall 1990 3L
-
3 Fenwick E4 1t (IP)  Curlin/ Malibu Moon
Nick: Curlin/Seattle Slew, Exaggerator 2016 3g
Nick: Mr P/ Seattle Slew,  Funny Cide 2003  6d
--
4 Secret Oath (F) S2  9f (BP) Arrogate/ Quiet American
-
5 Early Voting  P/N E8 9b (B) Gun Runner/Tiznow
Long Nick : Mr P / In Reality, Smarty Jones 2004 1x
Long Nick : Fappiano/ In Reality, Real Quiet 1998 4d
conduit Preakness Winner :9b Idle fancy Hill Prince 1950
-
6 Happy Jack S2  3o  (S)  Oxbow/ Tapit rf
----
7 Armagnac E5  A4 (BP) Quality Road/ Lemon Drop Kid
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8 Epicenter EP5  21A (IP) Storm Cat/Candy Ride
Long Nick: Storm Cat/ Fappiano, Shackleford 2011 2f
--
9 Skippylongstocking EP3  10a (BS) Curlin/War Chant
Nick: Smart Strike/ Danzig , Lookin at Lucky 2010 9f
Long Nick :  Smart Strike/ North. Dancer , Curlin 2007 19c
Long Nick: Mr P/ Nor Dancer, Hansel  1991 2w
Conduit Preakness Winner 10a Court Dress Charismatic 1999
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