2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds [horse

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Beyer figure of 103 or higher in at least one of last two starts. 17 of the last 18 Derby winners qualified on this factor. Prairie Bayou was the only Preakness winner of the last 18 that did not qualify on this factor.
none Epicenter 102 just missed

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Won last start before the Kentucky Derby. :
Secret Oath, Epicenter,
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Carry War Admiral in the X passing position on the dam side for all colts or on either side for a filly because she gets two X chromosomes
Secret Oath, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting, Happy Jack.
Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
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La Troienne In a passing position not noted above with War Admiral
Simplification, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting, Happy Jack
Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
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Carry Princequillo in The X passing Positions

Secret Oath, Fenwick, Early Voting, Armagnac

Skippylongstocking
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final Q qualifiers 25.39 or faster
Simplification 25.05 Derby, Creative Minister 24.13, 5.97 1/16

Secret Oath 25.38 1/8 12.96 Oaks, Early Voting 24.37,1/8 12.35

Skippylongstocking 24.31 1/8 12.23 Wood

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Speed numbers -------Bris---Beyer--Equibase
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Simplification 98 96 ---- 101

Creative Minister 101 92 108

Fenwick 63 88 54

Secret Oath 103 94 105

Early Voting 111 96 102

Happy Jack 81 83 81

Armagnac 97 93 92

Epicenter 101 102 105
Skippylongstocking 107 98 97

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E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 104/ 93 SPEED 104
*Early Voting 95 104/111 111, *Skippylongstocking 88 97/111 107
Just Missed Secret Oath(f) 101 109/93 103
* Wood Souped up track imo
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Back Speed :

111 Early Voting 107 Skippylongstocking 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Secret Oath 97 Happy Jack 97 Armagnac 74 Fenwick

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Speed Last Race :

111 Early Voting 107 Skippylongstocking 103 Secret Oath 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Armagnac 81 Happy Jack 63 Fenwick

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Early Pace Last Race:

103 Epicenter 101 Secret Oath 95 Early Voting 95 Armagnac 91 Creative Minister 90 Simplification 88 Skippylongstocking 84 Fenwick 76 Happy Jack

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Late Pace Last Race :

111 Early Voting 111 Skippylongstocking 102 Creative Minister 93 Secret Oath 92 Armagnac 88 Simplification 86 Epicenter 65 Happy Jack 38 Fenwick

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Average Distance Surface Speed :

Early Voting 111,Creative Minister 101,Skippylongstocking 101,Epicenter 100

Simplification 95, Secret Oath 94, Armagnac 94, Happy Jack 89, Fenwick 69

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Days Off :Early Voting 42, Skippylongstocking 42, Fenwick 42.
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Rasmussen Factor;
Secret Oath, Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack
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Edited May 18, 2022 10:18 pm by smartyslew

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Msg 1137 of 1591 to smartyslewsmartyslew

In reply toRe: msg 1136

From: Wintertrian

5/18/22

Exaggerator was the only KY Derby place horse who won the Preakness in 28 years. However, sometimes I play with stats like that though, as the race this year was unusual and not "formful" in the true sense, so some may consider Epicenter the "winner" for use with historical stats, which would mean Zandon would have no chance in the Preakness, but he's not running so it's a moot point.

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Msg 1138 of 1591 to WintertrianWintertrian

In reply toRe: msg 1137