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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 138911 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

4 Northern Dancer, 5  Mr P entrants
1st & 4th Mr P, 2nd &3rd Nor Dancer
-
Nor Dancer Sire line 
Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack,
Epicenter
----
Mr P, Nor Dan, Seattle Slew at least one in the Sire or Bms position
2 of these 3 is   better .
----
Di 4.00 and up:
Secret Oath 8.60  24 dosage pts  neutral
-
Di 2.00-2.99:
Fenwick 2.50., Happy Jack 2.38  positive
-----
cd points over 1.00: 
none
--
Bris improve  numbers  Positive
-
Early Voting 86  91  111 last 3 races
Skippylongstocking 77  85  94 107
-----
(close) Epicenter 90  93 98 101 101
--
Equibase Improving Numbers or not backwards  positive
-
Skippylongstocking 93-96-101
Creative Minister 84-88-108
Early Voting 79-81-102
Armagnac  60-83-92
Epicenter 79-95-97-97-97-97-105
-
Beyer improving Numbers positive
-
Creative Minister 76-82-93, Early Voting 76-87-96
Armagnac 55-83-93
Skippylongstocking 79-88-91
-
Variant equaled or better  positive
-
Creative Minister last race 94 +2  92 beyer
Secret Oath missed last 2 races  94 beyer last
Early Voting last 0 variant +8      96 beyer
Skippylongstocking 104 zero variant  91 beyer
89 +3     88 beyer
Epicenter Last Derby 89  -3  100 beyer,
104+5   , beyer 102
101 +3  98 beyer
Equaled or beat Variant next 3 races    beyer 88-87-80
-
Cmp s/s index 1.00 or less positive
all but Creative Minister
---.
a high cmp stamina number of 1.06 or higher must have
20 dosage points.   negative
Creative Minister 1.53 , 16 points
--
the ones below 1.00: 20 dosage pts or more positive.
-
Fenwick  28 pts, Happy Jack 22 Pts
-
Graded Stks  winners  positve
-Simplification 4 gr races 1 g2 win
Secret Oath 4 gr races, g1 win ,g3 win
Early Voting 2 gr races g1 2nd,g3 win
Epicenter 4 gr races 2 g2 winsg1 2nd, g3 2nd
--
No graded stakes races  negative
Creative Minister
-
reine 5 gen & tff 10  positive
Creative Minister 12, Happy Jack 17,
Fenwick 13, Secret Oath 10
Early
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-21

Preakness Stakes
--

pedigree and historical guidelines on the track scoring
-
1 Early Voting     14
2 Epicenter        13
3 Skippylongstocking  12
4 Secret Oath    11
5 Armagnac , Creative Minister 10
_______
Performance on the track scoring very close
-----
1st  Epicenter
2nd Early Voting, Creative Minister
3rd Simplification, Secret Oath, Skippy
-
 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-22

How Message 1148 did in the Preakness
Performance on The Track did the best
easily The Tri in 1st 3, and the super with the next line.
I had a very Good Preakness and the BES / Preakness I had 9 with all.

Did this help anybody ? Let me know.-

pedigree and historical guidelines on the track scoring
-
1 Early Voting     14-1st
2 Epicenter        13-2nd
3 Skippylongstocking  12
4 Secret Oath    11-4th
5 Armagnac , Creative Minister 10- 3rd
_______
Performance on the track scoring very close
-----
1st  Epicenter 2nd
2nd Early Voting-1st, Creative Minister-3rd
3rd Simplification, Secret Oath- 4th, Skippy

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-23

Preakness winner Early Voting 9b P/N :  Mr P/ Tiznow

Gun Runner/ Tiznow : Sire and Bms both improved racing as they got older and this might suggest Early Voting's

best is yet to come. However on a closer look at his pedigree one could say he's a Storm Cat, Nor Dancer and

Princequillo influence. Storm Cat is on each side of the pedigree 4sx3d 18.75% blood 3x4 influence and Remember

Secretariat is His BM sire with the Xfactor Lh from Princequillo. Also Early Voting has Silken Doll 3rd Dam another source

Of Princequillo  and WarAdmiral Thru Chieftain/ Buckpasser Daughter Silken Doll bred to Storm Cat, the 2nd Dams Sire.
The Chart Below Shows a Strong Nearctic Family Blood Line Storm Cat, Nor Dancer, Lyphard, Nearctic with Chieftain on
both sides with The Princequillo Influence.

I'm Showing This because  The Sire/Bms Line alone doesn't tell you who The Mares are and their influence isn't shown
in the Mr P/ Tiznow P/NP  in this case Tiznow Who's Non Phalaris line is Godolphin ..
Who does Early Voting remind you of Gun Runner or Tiznow ? 

EARLY VOTING C, 2019 DP = 0-0-4-0-0 (4) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.00

Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
STORM CAT 4S x 3d 2
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-23

what worked in the Preakness on message 1147
-- 
The Winner Early Voting has a Mrp Sire Line thru his Son Fappiano a strong linefor almost any line in This case a

Non Phalaris line Tiznow BMS, Thru the flow of excellence to Man O War's Sire Fair Copy a Godolphin line Sire.

next Contenders  with Improving speed numbers looked pretty good.

Bris improving Numbers 3 races or more. only 3 listed
-- 
Early Voting 86- 91- 111  WON
Skippy  OTM
Epicenter 90-93-98-101-101 -2nd
-

Equibase Improving Numbers- 5 Qualfiers 
Early Voting & Creative Minister With 20 point+ Jump in the numbers 1st &3rd
-
Early Voting 79-81-*102  First
Epicenter  79-95-97-97-97-97 -105 2ND
Creative Minister 84-88-*108 3RD     *20 pt jump in last
Skippy and Armagnac OTM
---
Beyer Improving Numbers
-
Early Voting 76-87-96 WON
Creative Minister 76-82-93  3rd
Armagnac, Skippy OTM
__

Variant Equaled or better in a race. (Shows they belong imo)
--
Early Voting  in last  0 variant (100) +8 over track distance Variant  WON 96 Beyer
Creative Minister  94 +2   92 Beyer 3rd
Skippy  otm
Epicenter Missed in the Derby 89 -3 from Variant, Met variant in 5 
previous races
----

CMP s/s index 1.00 or less positive
-

all But Creative Minister
-
High Cmp stamina Number 1.06 or Higher negative

Creative Minister 1.53 NEGATIVE for the win
-
1.00 below with 20 dosaqge points  positive angle
-
Fenwick , Happy Hack OTM
-
Graded Stakes Winners
-Secret Oath g1 win, g2 win --  4th
Early Voting  g3 win   WON
Epicenter  2 g2 wins 2nd
Simplification 1 g2 win OTM
_
No graded stakes Races -negative for the Win
Creative Minister
-
Reine mares 5 Generatio and TFF total  10 or more
-
Early Voter 16  WON, Creative Minister 12, 3rd,Epicenter 11, 2nd
Secret Oath 10, 4th, (Happy Jack, Fenwick, Armagnac -OTM)
--
Stamina Chef within 4 Generations
-
 Epicenter 2,  & 4 stam Chefs on Dam Side
Happy Jack, Armagnac both OTM
--
No Stam Chefs within 5 generations Negative
Skippy only one
-
Large Heart Mares And Sires in 5 Gen. in a passing Position
_
Early Voting 3, won, Secret Oath 5, 4th, Creative Minister 1, 3rd
4 otm- Fenwick 1,Happy Jack 4,Armagnac 5,Skippy 1
-
Big 4 Large Heart in a PP 6x6 or closer -positive
-
Secret Oath Princequillo 4th generation -4th place.
OTm Happy Jack,  Skippy

!0 + female family Positions within 5 generation did not work out

Missed The Top 3.
--


 


 

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-23

Who does Early Voting remind you of Gun Runner or Tiznow ?

Neither one…Storm Cat.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-24

AH HA, That's what I thought !grinning

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-24

I found this Interesting about Early Voting, Winning the Withers Stakes by 4 1/2 lengths over Un Ojo on a Muddy Track,
by a slow 9f time in  1.55.90,In Hand 3-4 wide held being clear Comes Back and wins the Wood same distance 9f in 1.47.96 about 40 lengths faster raw time. In  the Withers  the track variant is 28 (100-28=72) he is given a 68 -4 from the variant geared down 3-4 wide and clear from the field, awarded a 87 Beyer, 
-
in the Wood a very fast track, he gets nipped at the wire by Mo Donegal perfect dream trip by 
by a neck, in a very fast 1.47.4, with good splits, they gave a variant - faster than the last 3 year variant they have for use
the -- is the distance variant 100 on a level playing field . Early Voting +8 is a 108 variant ,awarded 96 Beyer, Skippy in the same race
3.5 lengths behind EV 104 to the variant +4, 88Beyer.
In the Withers He was geared down and had room to run faster on the Muddy Track, Meanwhile as Steve Colbert says
Un Ojo 2nd to EV in the Withers races first and Wins The Arkansas Derby and touted by Many because it was a Surprise to many
including Me, IMO later this was a distraction from E V before the Wood.
Off track, Super fast Track  He belonged. Here is the results for his 3 graded stakes races. g3-g2 g1 in order.

His Preakness Time 9 3/16  1.54.54, is faster than his off track  9f Withers time 1.55.90 geared down My track. 4 1/2 Length win.

022 WITHERS STAKES G3 EARLY VOTING CHAD C. BROWN 9-b 9 F UN OJO GILDED AGE5 1:55.90 MY, 11R, BY 4½ L.
2022 WOOD MEMORIAL STAKES G2 MO DONEGAL TODD A. PLETCHER 3-g 9 F
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-24

How Message 1136 data did in the Preakness. data for the Win.
Early Voting 12 Positive angles from this list
-
Must have run in the Derby.  The six that didn't, were Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini and Red Bullet. Cloud Computing,
Swiss SkyDiver(F), RomBauer   
Winner Early Voting did not run in The Derby, Fresh horse worked out
Add Early Voting to this list, a recent trend.
-----
Carrying the RAN sire line is a positive factor. A winner
Fenwick, Early Voting WINNER, Secret Oath, Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
---
Beyer figure of 103 or higher in at least one of last two starts. 17 of the last 18 Derby winners qualified on this factor. Prairie Bayou was the only Preakness winner of the last 18 that did not qualify on this factor.
none Epicenter 102 just missed. No qualifiers in This Race EV a 96, Now 2 Prairie Bayou & E V,
---
Won last start before the Kentucky Derby. : NO  2nd in last
Secret Oath, Epicenter,
-----
Carry War Admiral in the X passing position on the dam side for all colts or on either side for a filly because she gets two X chromosomes
Secret Oath, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting, Happy Jack.  Yes for EV
Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
-
La Troienne In a passing position not noted above with War Admiral- yes
Simplification, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting WON, Happy Jack
Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
-
Carry Princequillo in The X passing Positions
Secret Oath, Fenwick, Early Voting WINNER, Armagnac
Skippylongstocking
-
final Q qualifiers 25.39 or faster
Simplification 25.05 Derby, Creative Minister 24.13,  5.97 1/16
Secret Oath 25.38  1/8 12.96  Oaks, Early Voting 24.37,1/8 12.35- Winner
Skippylongstocking 24.31 1/8 12.23 Wood
------
Speed numbers   -------Bris---Beyer--Equibase
Bris high Early Voting 111 Winner, Beyer  Epicenter 102 -2nd, Equibase  Creative Minister 108 3rd
 Top Number for each Got the Trifecta..
--
Simplification              98        96 ---- 101
Creative Minister        101       92       108
Fenwick                        63       88         54
Secret Oath                 103       94       105
Early Voting                111       96       102
Happy Jack                   81       83         81
Armagnac                     97       93         92
Epicenter                     101     102       105
Skippylongstocking    107      98          97
----
 E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 104/ 93 SPEED 104 
*Early Voting 95 104/111 111- WINNER, *Skippylongstocking  88 97/111 107 
Just Missed Secret Oath(f) 101 109/93 103
* Wood Souped up track imo
----
Back Speed : 
111 Early Voting WINNER107 Skippylongstocking 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Secret Oath 97 Happy Jack 97 Armagnac 74 Fenwick
-
Speed Last Race :
111 Early Voting-WINNER 107 Skippylongstocking 103 Secret Oath 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Armagnac 81 Happy Jack 63 Fenwick
--
Early Pace Last Race:
103 Epicenter 101 -2nd Secret Oath 95-4th Early Voting 95-First, Armagnac 91 Creative Minister 90 -3RDSimplification 88 Skippylongstocking 84 Fenwick 76 Happy Jack
--
Late Pace Last Race :
111 Early Voting 111 WINNER Skippylongstocking 102 Creative Minister 93 Secret Oath 92 Armagnac 88 Simplification 86 Epicenter 65 Happy Jack 38 Fenwick
-
Average Distance Surface Speed :
Early Voting 111- First,Creative Minister 101,Skippylongstocking 101,Epicenter 100
Simplification 95, Secret Oath 94, Armagnac 94, Happy Jack 89, Fenwick 69
-
Days Off :Early Voting 42 Winner, Skippylongstocking 42, Fenwick 42. Resting Worked out this year.
--
Rasmussen Factor; Not the Winner
Secret Oath, Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack
--
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-24

How Message 1124 Data did in the Preakness for the Win:
good angle For Early Voting He had both Angles. Conduit 9b Idle Fancy B classification
has 2 Preakness Winners.
: WINNER P/N E8 Early  Voting had 2 Previous Long Nick Preakness Winners
MR P / Man O War (S) is the long Nick
Early Voting: Fappiano/In reality is shorter nick
Smarty Jones 2004 : Mr P/ Inreality Short Nick
Real Quiet 1998 : Fappiano/ Inreality Short Nick

Note 2nd and 3rd Place Epicenter and Creative Minister Had Long Nicks also
6 entrants Had nicks/
-
Preakness  previous Condit Mare Tfemale Family 

Early Voting CMP Conduit 9b Idle fancy Hill Prince 1950
Skippy was the only other one with this
-

2022 Preakness 5/21/22 Race 13: by post position
-

Name, Bris Classification, tail female family number
Conduit Classification , Sire/Bms rf =Rasmussen Factor
Nick or Long Nick Sire/Bms line
-
Nick = Preakness winner Sire/Bms Lines
-
1 Simplification EP4  16g (IS)Storm Cat/ Candy Ride rf,
Long Nick: Storm Cat/ Fappiano  Shackleford 2011 2f
-
2 Creative Minister P1 8d (B)  Storm Cat/ Tapit
Long Nick : Nor Dan/ Bold Ruler Louis Quatorze 1996 3m
Real Long Nick: Northern Dancer/ Bold Ruler Summer Squall 1990 3L
-
3 Fenwick E4 1t (IP)  Curlin/ Malibu Moon
Nick: Curlin/Seattle Slew, Exaggerator 2016 3g
Nick: Mr P/ Seattle Slew,  Funny Cide 2003  6d
--
4 Secret Oath (F) S2  9f (BP) Arrogate/ Quiet American
-
WINNER P/N E8 Early  Voting
5 Early Voting  P/N E8 9b (B) Gun Runner/Tiznow 
Long Nick : Mr P / In Reality, Smarty Jones 2004 1x
Long Nick : Fappiano/ In Reality, Real Quiet 1998 4d
conduit Preakness Winner :9b Idle fancy Hill Prince 1950
-
6 Happy Jack S2  3o  (S)  Oxbow/ Tapit rf
----
7 Armagnac E5  A4 (BP) Quality Road/ Lemon Drop Kid
-----
8 Epicenter EP5  21A (IP) Storm Cat/Candy Ride
Long Nick: Storm Cat/ Fappiano, Shackleford 2011 2f
--
9 Skippylongstocking EP3  10a (BS) Curlin/War Chant
Nick: Smart Strike/ Danzig , Lookin at Lucky 2010 9f
Long Nick :  Smart Strike/ North. Dancer , Curlin 2007 19c
Long Nick: Mr P/ Nor Dancer, Hansel  1991 2w
Conduit Preakness Winner 10a Court Dre
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