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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 308709 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/11/22

This should cheer you up.

Workout History Don Corleone Back On the track

Track Date Course Distance Time Note Rank
San Luis Rey Training Center 12/10/2022 Dirt 1F 13.00 Handily 2/2
Del Mar 08/27/2022 Dirt 5F 1:00.00 Handily 13/73
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

12/11/22

Glad to hear it. Maybe they started him prematurely.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/14/22

2 yr olds on our list racing from our list for prospects for Stretching out to Classic Distance at 3 yr old.
12/17/22
-
Aqueduct Race 6: MSW race 9 1 mile dirt, 10 entrants
#9 Mercante  Gun Runner/ Honour And Glory
---
Gulfstream Race 8:2 yr olds MSW 6 furlongs dirt 9 entrys
#8 Infinite Series N/P  Tiznow/ Quality Road
-
Oaklawn Park :race 6:Claiming $100,000 8 f Dirt 8 entrys
#8 Hit Show Candy Ride/ Tapit
-
Remington Park : Race 12 :Springboard Stks 1 Mile  Dirt , 9 entrys
#5 Giant Mischief  Into Mischief/ Giant Oak 
---
Joke of the day, Oh this is no joke Another Baffert Stakes
Is this a Point race ?
----------
4th race Los Alamitos Tb - Saturday, December 17th, 2022
 
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $200,000. Los Alamitos Futurity (Grade 2). FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. 
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Tall Boy 2 C 120 Rispoli Umberto Mora Leandro
2 Carmel Road 2 C 120 Hernandez Juan J. Baffert Bob
3 Fort Bragg on our list 2 C o 120 Prat Flavien Baffert Bob
4 Practical Move 2 C o 120 Vazquez Ramon A. Yakteen Tim
5 Arabian Lion On our list 2 C 120 Velazquez John R. Baffert Bob
 
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

12/15/22

I know, the Los Al Futurity is a joke.  All Baffert or past assistants....only 200K, so why come across the country to compete?  The Remington is worth twice that, and you don't have to fade BB's high-priced stable.

Really looking forward to seeing Giant Mischief....Echo Again is also in the race

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/15/22

Yeah, Its sad California becoming a one trainer  sector for g1 elite Young Horses.

They are not the only one running short point  races. The preps should have 8-12 entries

with 9 or 10 trainers and limit deep pockets not to have more than 2entrants IMO. In this window of time, 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/18/22

Results for Message 1420 this thread 12/17/22 races.

12/17/22
Aqueduct Race 6: MSW race 9 1 mile dirt, 10 entrants
#9 Mercante  Gun Runner/ Honour And Glory- 4th place, was coming
---
Gulfstream Race 8:2 yr olds MSW 6 furlongs dirt 9 entrys
#8 Infinite Series N/P  Tiznow/ Quality Road-- 3rd place
-
Oaklawn Park :race 6:Claiming $100,000 8 f Dirt 8 entrys
#8 Hit Show Candy Ride/ Tapit--- 1st place
-
Remington Park : Race 12 :Springboard Stks 1 Mile  Dirt , 9 entrys
#5 Giant Mischief  Into Mischief/ Giant Oak 2nd place
-
** Giant Mischief Missed the break and was in 9th place most of the
first part of the race and closed fast to finish 2nd, I make the case he was the Best
prospect in the race. 
----------
4th race Los Alamitos Tb - Saturday, December 17th, 2022
Results WON Practical Move, 2nd  2 Carmel road, 3rd 3 Fort Bragg
Won by Practical Move in good Horse race time and he will be added to our Prospect list
--
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

12/18/22

I was impressed with Practical Move's race, enough so that I bet him at 100-1 for the Derby.....

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/18/22

I liked the race at Remington Park better, Did you watch it,  The runup was 50 feet,  Los Al 85 feet on a faster track variant

Both Beyer and Equibase gave the 1st two at Remington WildatlanticStorm and Giant Mischief  5 or 6 points higher than

Practical Move. I thought Giant Mischief was the best of the 3 mentioned with that missing the break and running around the field 

starting at about 5 furlongs in and WildAtlantic has a elite Turf pedigree running good on dirt.

I don't put Future bets on any 2 year old that doesn't have at least 1 stamina Chef within 5 generations,

he needs to show me more  between now and the middle of March.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

12/19/22

I did watch both races, and I too was impressed with Giant Mischief, he missed the break terribly.  Thanks for pointing out the variant differences, However, even still, Practical Move did run well and has so consistently.  I understand the pedigree limitations, still thought the bet was worth it.  Giant is 40-1, too low for me at this point.  Do you think the horse that beat him can go into the TC preps, or should go on to some turf stakes?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/19/22

 It was my way of being more cautious without knowing the odds received for each horse mentioned

and in the last 10 years the tool I mentioned, Stamina Chefs within 5 generations Is something I learned

since I started making future Bets around 1970 and tailed off the last few years because of drugs

and First time Starters racing with Lasix and others without Lasix, from the same Barn, I don't get it why.

My data tells me to check for Stamina Chefs within 5 generations for 2 year olds, in March before the Derby we Should know

the best prospects to carry 126 pounds a distance of ground at 10 furlongs.
The last 85 years only 3 horses Have won the Derby without a stamina Chef within 5 generations .

The 3 horses imo are good prospects, The turf or Derby is 50-50 imo for that horse with Big Brown his BMSire

Took to dirt and the Horse like BB is loaded with TFF 5h ,the same for Sadlers Wells and other Turfers.

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