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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 347446 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/18/22

I liked the race at Remington Park better, Did you watch it,  The runup was 50 feet,  Los Al 85 feet on a faster track variant

Both Beyer and Equibase gave the 1st two at Remington WildatlanticStorm and Giant Mischief  5 or 6 points higher than

Practical Move. I thought Giant Mischief was the best of the 3 mentioned with that missing the break and running around the field 

starting at about 5 furlongs in and WildAtlantic has a elite Turf pedigree running good on dirt.

I don't put Future bets on any 2 year old that doesn't have at least 1 stamina Chef within 5 generations,

he needs to show me more  between now and the middle of March.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

12/19/22

I did watch both races, and I too was impressed with Giant Mischief, he missed the break terribly.  Thanks for pointing out the variant differences, However, even still, Practical Move did run well and has so consistently.  I understand the pedigree limitations, still thought the bet was worth it.  Giant is 40-1, too low for me at this point.  Do you think the horse that beat him can go into the TC preps, or should go on to some turf stakes?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/19/22

 It was my way of being more cautious without knowing the odds received for each horse mentioned

and in the last 10 years the tool I mentioned, Stamina Chefs within 5 generations Is something I learned

since I started making future Bets around 1970 and tailed off the last few years because of drugs

and First time Starters racing with Lasix and others without Lasix, from the same Barn, I don't get it why.

My data tells me to check for Stamina Chefs within 5 generations for 2 year olds, in March before the Derby we Should know

the best prospects to carry 126 pounds a distance of ground at 10 furlongs.
The last 85 years only 3 horses Have won the Derby without a stamina Chef within 5 generations .

The 3 horses imo are good prospects, The turf or Derby is 50-50 imo for that horse with Big Brown his BMSire

Took to dirt and the Horse like BB is loaded with TFF 5h ,the same for Sadlers Wells and other Turfers.

pianot

From: pianot

12/19/22

Smarty- no one can deny ur data compulation nor ur input on anything. Thanks you!

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

12/20/22

Determinedly is running back in the Gun Runner Stakes at FG on Monday, should be the favorite.....ran 2nd to Arabian Knight, then came back to win at 7f impressively.  Waiting for Cairo Prince to produce a notable runner, crop from him as more mature sire may help.....

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/21/22

Pianot:

Your Welcome ! Thank You !

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/21/22

That should be a very Competitive Race at that distance. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/24/22

2 year olds  from our list racing today 12/24/22
--
Tampa Bay Downs race 4 : MSW 1 Mile 40 yards Dirt  7 entrants     
#2 Spinzar 8-1   Tapit/ Med D'Oro   Shug-edit otm stop and go and confused.
---
12/26/22 
--
Fairgrounds : Race 4:Sugar Bowl Stakes : 6 furlongs Dirt 6 entrants
# 3 Corona Belt     Bolt D:Oro/ Quiet American          Cox- 1st wired the field by 6 1/4 lengths
 ( :22.24, :45.92, :57.78, 1:09.96 )
_
-
Race  11: Gun Runner Stakes 8.5 Furlongs dirt, 7 entrants
#2 Jace's Road     Quality Road/ Silver Deputy         Cox Edit
First Place wired The field won by 5 1/2 lengths.. (:24.46, :48.18, 1:12.54, 1:38.30, 1:44.85)
--
  • Edited December 26, 2022 9:11 pm  by  smartyslew
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

12/26/22

Add a couple of Baffert 2 year olds to the list, both debuted today at Santa Anita....

Faustin looked good winning, and Worcester came on late, galloped out best of all

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

12/27/22

-Two year olds on our list racing 12/28/22--

Turfway Park Race 9: Allowance Opt. Cl. $50,000 2 yr olds 6 Furlongs, 11 entrants AW track
# 4 Bromley  EDIT won by 1 1/2  1:10.65 on AW, won Last @ Churchill, Trained by Pab Lobo.
--
12/30/22 
Laurel Park Race 4:Heft Stakes  2 yr olds 7f Dirt, 8 entrants-

# 7 Prince Of Jericho    - EDIT 2nd Place

Santa Anita Park Race 3: Eddie Logan Stakes 2 yr olds One Mile Turf, 8 entrants

# 4 First Peace--  Edit- Finished 2nd

Edit :Speed Boat Beach #7 in race 3 on Elite Miler list Scratch

Santa Anita Park Race 5:  MSW 2 yr olds, : One Mile Turf,  13 entrants

# 1 Jeweled Shillelagh  OTM-6th place
--

  • Edited December 30, 2022 10:06 pm  by  smartyslew
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