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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 351822 views.

From: Wintertrian


smartyslew said...

National Treasure SA 08 Jan 1M 94

Update on Baffert horses:   National  Treaure, who seems to have more owners than I have fingers on both hands, has won exactly one maiden .... at 6.5F.   Even money in the Sham, he ran 3rd, in a laughably short field, beating one horse who was vanned off, and the other one was longest odds on the board.    Now 3 works since then, a 3F, a 4F and a 6F (fast) ........seems like they were *easing him* into working again.  Now he's got this horse blazing 6F in 1:11.60.  I'll call it early:  road to ruin for this one.  Lucky to race past 3. 

And Cave Rock has had exactly one work since Breeders Cup, at only 4F. 

Chad Brown's Blazing Sevens is working short little 3F and 4F breezes since the Breeders Cup.  

Cox's Instant Coffee hasn't even worked at all since winning the LeComte.  

Are these bears in hibernation or thoroughbred horses?   LOL   I used to worry about racing such young horses who don't have fully developed musculoskeletal systems.  Now we are racing young horses without fully developed musculoskeletal systems who also stand around in the barn 80%++ in their lives.    Its like human couch potatoes who don't een get their 10,000 steps in.  


From: DogsUpWired


The biggest, best, prestigious, (money, residual stud fees, fame) race on the planet for owner, trainer, jockey, and even once a year bettor is just eleven weeks away.

These entities meticulously take step, by jog, by cantor, by breeze, by race. 

The campaigns of Derby winners by same connections (right down to Doug O'Neill's brother purchasing at auction Nyquist and I'll Have Another) a great example.

In anything, and especially with an animal* key to the team: plan, implement*, communicate*, evaluations is what gets the roses. 

And agree, 'some may be doing not enough, soon enough...but the recipe to get in the Derby and at the Derby finish line is not a constant practice.


From: smartyslew


Hibernation is a good word. others are doing the same Hibernation with slower workouts

and will be lucky to have more than 6 lifetime races.
Just had time to do the splits for the Risen Star and I can't see the hoopla for
Crupi and this is a sub par group imo. Only 2 with 25.40 or faster last Q.

A tired group at 8f  Mark.


From: smartyslew


My Projection for the Risen Star tough field of entrants, 11 have raced with Lasix,

Part of the field longest is 8f and that is a sprint imo, and many are Lacking Foundation

and any can jump up. I was surprised that the 14 turfer Private Creed has the  slowest

Mile time except for the #1 never raced further then 7f., then I noticed on a soft Turf

My first 3 are the same as the Computer picks.
In Order with there post position numbers I'm to busy to break it down.

5-13-4-9-8-7-6-12-10,-11,2,3. 14-1

Last Q 25.40 or faster : Curly Jack 24.14,Tapit's Conquest 25.10, 

I'll Have the 3 Lasix free on my ticket 13-9-10 with the 5 ,8 , longshot 2  underneath

if I decide to bet..




Ben's Legacy will try to get on the Derby Trail today at Oaklawn. The full bro to Rushing Falls, will go 8.5f against winners! Good luck Ben!


From: smartyslew


Horses on our list Racing  2/18/23
Oaklawn Park:
Race 5: MSW 8f Dirt 11 entries
#9 Route Runner  12-1  FINISHED OTM
Oaklawn race 6 : 8.5 f dirt Allow Oc $100.000 9 entered
#8 Ben's Legacy 10-1    FINISHED OTM
Fairgrounds Race 8: AllOC $80,000 8.5f dirt 7 entered
#4 Tapit Shoes 9-2  3RD Place, Race  won by Deningon
Laurel Park : Race 4: Miracle Wood Stks 1 Mile Dirt:
#3 Prince Of Jericho finished 2nd 7 entries


  • Edited February 20, 2023 12:21 am  by  smartyslew

From: smartyslew


Suggest comparing race 8 at Fairgrounds for 3 yr olds to the Risen Star

the First 4 were competitive and the splits for the 8.5f race today  is better
than the splits for the Risen Star field coming into todays race. 

Denington was 1st and I tossed him off our list earlier, Tapit Shoes was 3rd, First  Defender 4th.

Banishing OTM the Chalk. Tapit Shoes is on our list.


From: princeofdoc


Denington the only one in race not on Lasix too.  Track looked tiring late as well, probably a good stamina-building race.  Wonder what the numbers will be, perhaps sneakily better than Beyer will post.


From: smartyslew


I don't know the variant, the raw time in the Risen Star was 12 Lengths slower than Epicenter time last year.


From: Wintertrian


DogsUpWired said...

And agree, 'some may be doing not enough, soon enough...but the recipe to get in the Derby and at the Derby finish line is not a constant practice

How about just gate training your horse, you know, something that all racehorses have to learn.  Crupi is a chronically poor gate horse, people talked about it before the race.....and then he shows it again in the Risen Star.   Chronic.  There's no point continuing on the trail til you have your horse ready and able to do the most basic  and sundry things that even low level horses master. 

Just because best horses are given to super trainers (which is only reason WHY some of them became super trainers as they are starting out with priviledged breedings) doesn't mean they are great trainers..  That's all I want to see, a more level playing field. 

Let me ask you to make pasta primavera and you get the heavy cream fresh from the cow and real bacon.......and I have to use 9 month old powdered milk and soy protein fake bacon bits.........  Then you get chef of the year.  See how that works?

Ditto Jockeys.   i spent the day deligihtedly betting against Rosario  he does this all the time, he lost every race today except one and it was an utter chalk horse. 

Case in point:   Before the South West Stakes who had the highest record of wins of that race in the history books?  Bejarano. (he achieved that before he was stabled at oaklawn).   Now that he;s actually AT Oaklawn, riding day in and day out.....and is like 3rd in the jock ratings there, imagine my surprise when he gets tossed off the SW stakes horse for a "super rider".     Why?    See this is how it is.  The little guys have zero way to ever get to the top.   Should have kept Bejarano on.  But they didn't. 

Just like Hal Wiggins lost Rachel Alexandra, and Helen Pitts lost Curlin.  Those horses were already champions, like Summer Bird "took" Tm Ice to the TC.......and that's because nobody took  the horse away from him, despite that Tim Ice really wasn't a super trainer or even one of the best ones at his track.    THE HORSES DO IT. They are the ones who make or break you.   

Curlin was already conditioned the best he was ever going to be, from yearling to 3.....that's why he didn't set foot on a racetrack til he was 3.   Pitts didn't have him ready yet.  Rachel was already a fully capable horse.   That's why "the rich guy" bought them out from under them.  He knew.