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The biggest, best, prestigious, (money, residual stud fees, fame) race on the planet for owner, trainer, jockey, and even once a year bettor is just eleven weeks away.
These entities meticulously take step, by jog, by cantor, by breeze, by race.
The campaigns of Derby winners by same connections (right down to Doug O'Neill's brother purchasing at auction Nyquist and I'll Have Another) a great example.
In anything, and especially with an animal* key to the team: plan, implement*, communicate*, evaluations is what gets the roses.
And agree, 'some may be doing not enough, soon enough...but the recipe to get in the Derby and at the Derby finish line is not a constant practice.
Hibernation is a good word. others are doing the same Hibernation with slower workouts
and will be lucky to have more than 6 lifetime races.
Just had time to do the splits for the Risen Star and I can't see the hoopla for
Crupi and this is a sub par group imo. Only 2 with 25.40 or faster last Q.
A tired group at 8f Mark.
My Projection for the Risen Star tough field of entrants, 11 have raced with Lasix,
Part of the field longest is 8f and that is a sprint imo, and many are Lacking Foundation
and any can jump up. I was surprised that the 14 turfer Private Creed has the slowest
Mile time except for the #1 never raced further then 7f., then I noticed on a soft Turf
My first 3 are the same as the Computer picks.
In Order with there post position numbers I'm to busy to break it down.
Last Q 25.40 or faster : Curly Jack 24.14,Tapit's Conquest 25.10,
I'll Have the 3 Lasix free on my ticket 13-9-10 with the 5 ,8 , longshot 2 underneath
if I decide to bet..
Ben's Legacy will try to get on the Derby Trail today at Oaklawn. The full bro to Rushing Falls, will go 8.5f against winners! Good luck Ben!
Horses on our list Racing 2/18/23
Race 5: MSW 8f Dirt 11 entries
#9 Route Runner 12-1 FINISHED OTM
Oaklawn race 6 : 8.5 f dirt Allow Oc $100.000 9 entered
#8 Ben's Legacy 10-1 FINISHED OTM
Fairgrounds Race 8: AllOC $80,000 8.5f dirt 7 entered
#4 Tapit Shoes 9-2 3RD Place, Race won by Deningon
Laurel Park : Race 4: Miracle Wood Stks 1 Mile Dirt:
#3 Prince Of Jericho finished 2nd 7 entries
Suggest comparing race 8 at Fairgrounds for 3 yr olds to the Risen Star
the First 4 were competitive and the splits for the 8.5f race today is better
than the splits for the Risen Star field coming into todays race.
Denington was 1st and I tossed him off our list earlier, Tapit Shoes was 3rd, First Defender 4th.
Banishing OTM the Chalk. Tapit Shoes is on our list.
Denington the only one in race not on Lasix too. Track looked tiring late as well, probably a good stamina-building race. Wonder what the numbers will be, perhaps sneakily better than Beyer will post.
I don't know the variant, the raw time in the Risen Star was 12 Lengths slower than Epicenter time last year.
DogsUpWired said...And agree, 'some may be doing not enough, soon enough...but the recipe to get in the Derby and at the Derby finish line is not a constant practice
How about just gate training your horse, you know, something that all racehorses have to learn. Crupi is a chronically poor gate horse, people talked about it before the race.....and then he shows it again in the Risen Star. Chronic. There's no point continuing on the trail til you have your horse ready and able to do the most basic and sundry things that even low level horses master.
Just because best horses are given to super trainers (which is only reason WHY some of them became super trainers as they are starting out with priviledged breedings) doesn't mean they are great trainers.. That's all I want to see, a more level playing field.
Let me ask you to make pasta primavera and you get the heavy cream fresh from the cow and real bacon.......and I have to use 9 month old powdered milk and soy protein fake bacon bits......... Then you get chef of the year. See how that works?
Ditto Jockeys. i spent the day deligihtedly betting against Rosario he does this all the time, he lost every race today except one and it was an utter chalk horse.
Case in point: Before the South West Stakes who had the highest record of wins of that race in the history books? Bejarano. (he achieved that before he was stabled at oaklawn). Now that he;s actually AT Oaklawn, riding day in and day out.....and is like 3rd in the jock ratings there, imagine my surprise when he gets tossed off the SW stakes horse for a "super rider". Why? See this is how it is. The little guys have zero way to ever get to the top. Should have kept Bejarano on. But they didn't.
Just like Hal Wiggins lost Rachel Alexandra, and Helen Pitts lost Curlin. Those horses were already champions, like Summer Bird "took" Tm Ice to the TC.......and that's because nobody took the horse away from him, despite that Tim Ice really wasn't a super trainer or even one of the best ones at his track. THE HORSES DO IT. They are the ones who make or break you.
Curlin was already conditioned the best he was ever going to be, from yearling to 3.....that's why he didn't set foot on a racetrack til he was 3. Pitts didn't have him ready yet. Rachel was already a fully capable horse. That's why "the rich guy" bought them out from under them. He knew.
As I re-watched all the two turn dirt races at FG today, it was clear that speed was not holding, and that the rail was super dead. It made Sun Thunder's run even more impressive to me, coming through on the rail and holding.