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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net
From: Wintertrian
2/22/23
Maybe an off the radar horse like the Uncle Mo's Scoobie Quando with all that nice German and Irish blood on the female side will make it to one of the big races....... more of a turfer now running on synth. BMS is full brother to Galileo(IRE) and half-brother to Sea The Stars. Too late to the party for the KY Derby though.
From: princeofdoc
2/22/23
I love how you find these off radar types, and yes, it is most of the time too late for the Derby. We do have exceptions, of course, esp. from Baffert, but generally, to be ready for the Derby, the colts have to start too young. I'm still baffled at how many try them out in June and July, but I guess the pressure for a foundation is just too great for the Derby-dreamers.
Still, some of the precocious types are possibly served by racing young....and if handled correctly, can win TC races and continue on healthily. Even the surprises that you mentioned, Rich Strike and MTB, had good foundations and raced well, young. That's what I look for as a futures bettor....and my top 3 in the rankings all fit. I am wondering who Arabian Knight and Faustin go to, I'm guessing Yakteen if they're to point to the SA Derby, but not sure they should run against each other. Forte is back working and should be competitive wherever he is placed. Cave Rock is the unknown, as he is back to working late, and may have only completed training for one prep.
From: princeofdoc
2/22/23
Actually, I take back what I said in the last post, Winter......Scoobie just may be pointed to those points-giving races! Just noticed that he won his first time out in a little stakes race, never raced against maidens, then came 2nd to Wadsworth, who is definitely pointed toward the Jeff Ruby if not also the John Battaglia. Had a bad post and loaded reluctantly, still ran 2nd, could easily improve. Let's keep a closer eye on that one!
From: princeofdoc
2/22/23
Just got him added for the futures at Circa (I have the personal cell for the manager :)).....he put him up at 275-1. If he gets entered in the John Battaglia, I'll put a few # on him!
From: smartyslew
2/22/23
7 Confidence Game, 1st 3 on our list has raced with L Bummer.
| STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,000,000. Rebel S. (Grade 2). THREE YEAR OLDS. last Q 25.40< 9 have derby nicks, 2 don't Talladega, Frosted Departure, : That is getting tougher |
| PP | Horse last 3 races last 1st | Wgt | Jockey | Trainer Runup | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1L | Verifying E5 95L +9 86 G1 82 G1 | 122` | Geroux Florent 25.29 8f | Cox Brad H.60 | ||
| 2 | Powerful EP5 89 +b 61 G1 85 MDN | 117 | Castillo Isaac | Asmussen Steven M.45 | ||
| 3 | Red Route One P2 90 G2 sys 82 G2 77 G3 | 117 | Torres Cristian A. 24.93 8.5f | Asmussen Steven M. 60 | ||
| 4L | Gun Pilot EP 6 rf 90 L N2 89 L 1x 88 MDN | 122` | Santana, Jr. Ricardo 25.39 8f | Asmussen Steven M.60 | ||
| 5L | Giant Mischief S4 90L-S 99 70L | 117 | Ortiz, Jr. Irad Troubled trip | Cox Brad H.50 | ||
| 6 | Reincarnate EP6 98 G3 88 MDN 92 Mdn | 122` | Velazquez John R. | Yakteen Tim 180 * | ||
| 7 | Confidence Game E5 87 G3 92 OC 82 OC | 119 | Graham James | Desormeaux J. Keith 50 | ||
| 8L | Talladega E4 88 L MN 75L mdn 78 | 117 | Prat Flavien |
- Edited February 25, 2023 12:41 am by smartyslew
From: Wintertrian
2/23/23
princeofdoc said...
I love how you find these off radar types
It's what I do but thanks for noticing. I suck at about a gazillion other aspects of horse racing, but being a longshot player I like to ferret out the ones that nobody has on their lists. I personally don't think he will be ripe for the Derby gate, but maybe preakness, I remember how last year I had figured out Creative Minister, who wasn't on anyone's list and it was only around February---- Just because I saw him in a maiden race and he impressed me. He had to be supplemented by the time the Preakness came around in May, so of course, that put him on the radar right quick (which disappointed me since I thought I'd have a little gold mine all to myself).
So, one that fit with that same idea, and didn't see on any lists I thought I'd share is Uncle Mo's Scoobie Quando
- Edited February 23, 2023 12:45 am by Wintertrian
From: smartyslew
2/23/23
He's a jewel for the BC turf with what you mentioned and 5 or 6 of Northern Dancer Sons strong BMS line
Strong up the middle. 77% 8 generation Female linebreeding from The world for foundation
not many in North America. Motion or Clemente .
From: Wintertrian
2/23/23
smartyslew said...
He's a jewel for the BC turf with what you mentioned and 5 or 6 of Northern Dancer Sons strong BMS line
Strong up the middle. 77% 8 generation Female linebreeding from The world for foundation
not many in North America. Motion or Clemente .
Thank you for this, smartyslew. I really had no idea what to do with him but I wasn't gonna let him go. Your suggestions sounds right to me!
From: smartyslew
2/23/23
I never heard of that trainer before. Last race finished 2nd to a Cox /Godolphin I think Geroux was up
at a short distance for what both are bred for at Turfway AW
From: Wintertrian
2/23/23
Paolo Lobo.......he gets all that nice South American blood most of the time, you are likely to see his horses be like (CHI) or (ARG) and such. But yes, usually only runs at TP and AW. Remember Gayego? (won the AR Derby in 2005). That was his horse. He had IVAR(BRZ), Imperador(ARG)......Irwin has nothing on him when it comes to going to South America for new blood.
AR Derby new schedule is just so perfectly placed this year, exactly 3 weeks before the KY Derby. Not too far out, not too close up. Genius.