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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 309594 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/27/23

More data for the Rebel stakes on messages this thread.
--
Message 1656 this thread, I did exactly this, Tri and Super and  a exacta without the 2 horse.
and bet the Winner
--

In the Rebel I will do one box of the 4 Lasix free entrants  2 Powerful, 3 Red Route One, 6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game: Rain Or Shine 

I'll wait to see what the track Conditions look like before I make a bet Saturday.

Tough field.. On Paper.
--------
Message 1657 this Thread with results
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
best pedigree mud stats Sire only-----------    Sire   &   BMS AWD (average winning Distance                                                                     
1stConfidence Game Starts   1913  % 21         7.1         7.5  WINNER, 1st 2 both sires 7.1 f or better
Giant Mischief                       1836   % 19         6.8         7.1
Talladega                              1836   % 19          6.8         6.4
Frosted Departure                 278    %  15         6.6         7.0
Powerful                                146    %  20         7.1         7.5
Gun Pilot                               121    %  22         7.3         7.6
Red Route One  2nd             121    %   22        7.3         7.6  2nd 
Reincarnate    3rd                 26     %  23          6.7         7.2  3rd
Verifying      4th                     19     %  21          6.8          7.3 4th  
Bourbon Bash                      11     %  18          7.2           6.7
Event Detail                          11     %   18         7.2          6.8
---------
1st 4 4 finishers 21% or better Sire  mudders
---
Message 1659
--------------------------------------

I did do a Mix of the 3 L free I like with some of the 5 on our list
And bet the winner hoping he would rate and not break on top.
----
In the Rebel I will do one box of the 4 Lasix free entrants  2 Powerful, 3 Red Route One, 6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game: Rain Or Shine 
--
I'll wait to see what the track Conditions look like before I make a bet Saturday.

Tough field.. On Paper.

Also at race time might do a mix from the L free and these
 On Our List Racing in The Rebel:5 entrants:1 Verifying, 4 Gun Pilot-rf, 5 Giant Mischief,6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game
I am leaning to 7 Confidence Game and see if the clean face can win this. If he doesn't win the break
he won't have a clean face
many in here are bred for slop
---
pianot

From: pianot

2/27/23

This is all awesome stuff. Do u track track issues as well? Blocks, pullups, bad starts etc?

  • Edited February 27, 2023 7:19 pm  by  pianot
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/27/23

I use bad trips for a lot of that and many times it happens in the last race and besides watching

replays I use back speed a lot, sometimes its more important than data from last race and

with Bris free PP's on  Cindy and Tex's  Main site  I correct what I think is mistakes and many times my

own numbers are used where I don't agree with their numbers  and its handy to use and my own deciphering.

Some will say I don't like bris, Bris isn't the only tool in my tool box, far from it.

Their free PP's is a blessing on this site.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/28/23

I didn't mean to run everybody off  . Maybe I need to change Mouthwash.

pianot

From: pianot

2/28/23

I think it's digest time for me anyway!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/28/23

Message 1664 this thread, Has the angles I used in the Rebel that worked and some didn't

work from the PP's and charts from previous races. The only Pedigree angles I use in these

early preps are the Entrants from my list that could be Prospects for carrying 126 pounds on

the first Saturday In May and I have around 110 0n that list at the best 90 from that list won't make the field

Derby Day. I suggest take the time to read the angles on that message and take notes write them down and use them for the next preps. Some think I'm just a Pedigree capper, but I have always been more than that and competitive.
Try it and let me know how you did ! The same for message 1666.
----

  • Edited February 28, 2023 5:01 pm  by  smartyslew
Msg 1770.1672 deleted
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/28/23

Forte has my favorite tail female family 1x and the conduit Mare La Troienne
I won't bet him with those odds and in this group I can't bet against him. Pass.
He doesn't need to win.
3 year old Fountain of Youth stks Derby prep points race
Click on Todd Pletcher for this race, sometimes you have to go back 3 times because 
of adds to get there. free PP's ,Suggest go to message 1664 and cap the race using those 
angles.
--
Entrants on our list: General Jim, Forte, Blazing Sevens, Rocket Can, Cyclone Mischief.. Runup 60 ft.
Race 14  Gulfstream Park - Saturday, March 4th, 2023  Par 98
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $400,000. Fountain of Youth S. (Grade 2). THREE YEAR OLDS. Free nomination by Saturday, February 18.  Preference will be given to graded stakes winners, stakes placed then by highest career earnings. (05:43 PM) (10)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey                   Runup Ft Trainer
1 General Jim P5 3 C 121 Saez Luis               30

McGaughey III Claude R.

2 Legacy Isle EP6 3 C 121 Jaramillo Emisael  60 Crichton Rohan
3 Shadow Dragon S2 3 C 119 Ortiz Jose L.          60 Mott William I.
4 ForteP3 3 C 123 Ortiz, Jr. Irad         50 Pletcher Todd A.
5 Il Miracolo EP2 3 C 119 Perez Edgar           60 Sano Antonio
6 Blazing Sevens S2 3 C 123 Rosario Joel          50
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/28/23

3 year old prep Point Race San Felipe Stakes
Suggest you go here http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-pastperformances.htm
Click on Doug O'Neil for this Race and get free BRIS PP's for this Race.
Suggest go to message 1664 and cap the race This thread  using those angles. and when done
Put your picks in a message on this Forum Sight , both sights are owned By Cindy And Tex
Maybe some of these 500 Members will get involved on here instead of lurking and never
getting involved on the Message Sight. try it you Might like it.
6th race Santa Anita Park - Saturday, March 4th, 2023
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $400,000. San Felipe S. (Grade 2). FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS. By subscription of $100 each if made on or before Thursday, February 23, 2023,  allowed 2 lbs. Non-Winners of a Sweepstakes at One Mile or Over allowed 4 lbs.
-
Entrants on Our List: National TreasureScratch, Practical Move 1st , Geaux Rocket Ride 2nd, Fort Bragg, Mr Fisk.
 Lasix free Chase The Chaos, National Treasure, Practical Move, Fort Bragg,:  2.3.7,9.10, Have raced in Graded Stakes Races.
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Chase The Chaos 3 G 122 Ayuso Armando Moger, Jr. Ed
2 National Treasure 3 C 120 Velazquez John R. Yakteen Tim
3 Practical Move 3 C 124 Vazquez Ramon A. Yakteen Tim
4L Bluegrass Go Go 3 C o 120 Maldonado Edwin A. O'Neill Doug F.
5L Genius Jimmy 3 C 120 Kimura Kazushi McCarthy Michael W.
6L Crypto Ride 3 G o 120 Rispoli Umberto Lewis Craig Anthony
7L Hejazi 3 C 120 Smith Mike E. Yakteen Tim
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/1/23

I noticed the DRF Top 20 derby watch For last week Had 5 Entrants In the Rebel

On Their list. #6 Verifying, #8 Giant Mischief, #11 Reincarnate, #17 Gun Pilot, # 18 Red Route One

Who finished 2nd, And not on the List the Winner Confidence Game. 

I don't pay much attention to their list, After seeing that I'll be curious to see what this Weeks

List looks like.. The Fountain Of Youth will probably dominate this weeks with Forte in it

and there is 3 other preps this week. Next week with luck They should have a better handle on it.

3 on Their list is racing in the Fountain of youth.

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