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|STAKES.1 Turn 1 Mile Dirt Sprint. Purse $300,000. Gotham S. (Grade 3). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.|
|PP||Horse||A/S||M/E||Wgt||Jockey Runup ft||Trainer|
|1L||Clear The Air P6||3 C||118||Gilligan Jack 65 8f AW||Walden William|
|2L||Howgreatisnate S6||3 G||120||Acosta J. D. 40 6f S||Simoff Andrew L.|
|3L||Mr. Swagger++EP6||3 C||b||118||Olivero Carlos 54 6.5f||Avila Juan Carlos|
|4L||Uncorrelated++EP6||3 C||118||Franco Manuel 56 6f sys||Brown Chad C.|
|5||Carmel Road++EP6||3 C||118||Cancel Eric 85 8.5f G2||Yakteen Tim|
|6||General Banker++EP5 3rd||3 C||118||Pennington Frankie 93 9f G3||Ferraro James W.|
|7L||Transect++EP5||3 C||118||Talamo Joseph 40 6.5f AW||Lobo Paulo H.|
|8||Fort Warren E5||3 C||118||Toledo Jevian 28 7f G2||Russell Brittany T.|
|9L||Clubhouse E8||3 C||118||CarmoucheKendrick 59 6f S||Pletcher Todd A.|
smartyslew said...Scoobi Quando Might be Winters Diamond in the Rough
Race goers and supporters of US racing only look at horses with super trainers and super jocks. We wonder why U.S. racing is the way it is, but refuse to examine our biases.
Scoobie's trainer, Ben Colebrook, trained up Knicks Go, for 13 races, including runninng 2nd in the G1 BC Juvie and first G1 Futurity (and paid $140++ to win that) before he was given to Brad Cox. But nobody will ever pay attention to a Korean-owned horse, bred in MD, and running under a non supertrainer name.
Every year, around this time, i wonder about all the ones that will never make the gate, not because they aren't the real deal, but because they don't have the big barn $$ to get developed or even on the radar screen.
Cox didn't make that horse, Ben Colebook did. Horse had already been racing for 2 years by the time Cox got him, Colebrook developed him from a yearling. Guarantee though, had the horse had Colebrook's name on it, Knicks Go would have had 10x the odds. The horse already had everything he needed to be a champion (breeding, etc.) And had already been well-developed (first 3 years of a horse's training is where the bulk of their foundation is built, from yearling to stakes racer.)
What is wrong with US racing is, in part, because of many of the racing fans themselves have been hyponotized and they mostly seem to be pro-lasix, anti HISA, and they don't even look at all the hundreds of barns across America where backside people are working their butts off to bring really nice horses to races.
There is BIG TALENT out there. But we mostly don't get to see it. Because owners don't support anyone but super trainers, either. Those are the only ones they send their good breedings to and if they didn't do it at first, they will eventually transfer their horse.
So, in essence, .the fans are given what they want.
God forbid somebody like Sonny Leon should win a KY Derby. Because then we get to enjoy weeks and months of derision of him, about how he's a nobody, and it's always a fluke when jockeys who aren't Prat or Irad ....... but if drug o'neil or sadler win a big race they are deemed *legitimate wins*. (despite thier records of numerous medication suspensions, etc.)
U.S. racegoers will not get a better product unless they express that that's what they want. For now, we can just expect 3 Bafferts, 3 Asmussens, 3 Coxes, and 3 Chad Browns in fields of 8-10 horses. People sure seem to love the *hoopla*.
Colebrook has been in my stable since 2015, due to Limosine Liberal (who ran in 3 BC Sprint graded stakes). Mostly that horse LOVED Churchill Downs and that was mainly why I followed him. So yeah, if you had followed Ben you'd have gotten $140 on Knicks Go before he went to Cox. By the time your horse goes to a super trainer, you may as well forget the odds.
If Rich Strike had been with Cox with geroux riding, he'd have gone off at 4-1. Sort of like if a horse gets Irad, heck, if a burro gets Irad, they go off at 2-1 odds. (despite that everything Cox actaully SAID about Giant Mischief, that it was just a test race to see if the horse could even get 2 turns in a *short* route....). Yet, "fan bias" overruled everything Cox was saying if you read between the lines of his very own comments.
That's why I mostly play non stakes races......I don't have to deal with inflated false odds on horses in the every day races at OP.
Stakes at OP are only races where I don't have to look too much at PPs. I don't use the Brisnet angles because for my home track I just find them kinda wrong, unless you look further than what they have for figures. Just knowing that track helps me cap it. I also just listen to the "telegraphing" that trainers like Cox give out (Zito used to be good at this, too, if you listened----I used to hang on his every word, write it down, then go thru it 5x to *read between the lines*.) Cox "telegraphed" pretty clearly, w/out coming out and saying it, that Giant Mischief was only in the race to "see" if he could run a short 2 turn route at all (hence why he didn't enter him in a 1-1/8 stakes the weeeks before that)....he just wanted to see if GM could get 2 turns AT ALL. (Horse got bet down because Irad, who does not ride at OP and if he were on a burro would have been bet down.) In Feb and March, Cox and Asmussen are trying out different things with their horses to see where they need to go next....and where they don't need to go. If you study Cox, he's very "particular" where he runs horses and in what races, he has that part down to a science. So it matters. Not as much with other trainers, but with him......100% matters. So I watch to see how he brings a horse along......that tells me where he is thinking of going next or if he's going to use a differnet horse entirely.
But.......would appreciate some help with races at Gulfstream this weekend ......anybody play that track a lot? I need good reasons too, otherwise just giving me names won't help me. I don't trust the Equibase PPs for any races, if that is all you have at your disposal.
For instance, Brisnet Running Styles are really OFF. Like if the horse had a strangle-jockey like Leperoux lets say, in last race, their running style on Brisnet PPs will be totally and utterly wrong. You have to go back to all their other races to see how the horse runs NATURALLY. I happen to think that a horse, when not forced to run against their natural style, will do well. Horses who are forced to do otherwise, never do. or........it eventually catches up to them.
Some trainers train for what they know how to do, (i.e. look at Kavod). I shake my head every time I see him, because I actually love this horse, but the trainer only knows how to train the way he is training Kavod. He's a claiming trainer, like Diordoro, and always will be one.
smartyslew said...Only 3 have used Lasix 7-9-10
I'm glad you are keeping track of these!
His last work is 2/18/23 .
You are Amazing WinterTRIAN Love the young ol LB!!
EXCELLENT post, Winter! I had noticed that about Colebrook and Knicks, and have been a fan since then. I know it's a real longshot, but I'm putting a few bucks on Scoobie at 300-1!
Heck, I put a few $ on Adam Schenk in the big golf tournament in FL at Arnie's place....at 550-1, and he finished today at -4, in 2nd place! Miracles can happen!
I see the one I wanted to bet in the last future but forgot about till it was too late. Well, seeing he is in the Gotham, probably did not miss anything since Gotham runners have not done much. Only 8f which I think is 2T at AQU. Just a watch, no picks.
My 2yo horse in the FOY, but not big on him winning the KD, but should do well. Would not surprise if he does win, just won't bet as fav. Still maintaining my boycott of GP and won't bet. Also won't bet SA with pseudo BBs. Battaglia? not interested in that either.
Still biggest weekend for preps thus far.