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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 309185 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/20/23

3 Lasix Free: 2 Instant Coffee, 3 Curly Jack,11 Jaces Road, I suggest any entrant with
Lasix used 2 races in a row has a good shot of his speed numbers jumping up, most of
the trainers last year only used Lasix twice during the TC season CyberKnife Needed that
boost 2 races after that  lasix races. I see Single Ruler and Baseline Beater used Lasix 3 times already
12 th race Fair Grounds - Saturday, March 25th, 2023
STAKES. 1 3/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,000,000. Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (Grade 2). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
*Derby Curse, can win this race
PP Horse A/S  run up   Wgt Jockey Trainer
1L2 87 Shopper's Revenge EP 4 3 C    60 122 Santana, Jr. Ricardo Asmussen Steven M. br/nd curse*
2 96 Instant Coffee P2 EP5 3 C    50 122 Saez Luis Cox Brad H.           Nd/ BR curse*
3 85 Curly Jack EP 5  Miler type 3 C    40 nick 122 Morales Edgar Amoss Thomas M.
4L1 88 Sun Thunder S0  3 C    40 nick 122 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph McPeek Kenneth G.
5 L1 91 Disarm P6 3 C    60 nick 122 Rosario Joel Asmussen Steven M.
...[Message truncated]
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Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/20/23

smartyslew said...

Message 1632 this thread Risen Star , the splits Suck big time

No body ran the last Q in 25.40 or faster, that is not a good prep

The Risen Star wasn't a good race.  But at least it was 1-1/8.   I actually liked some of the races the horses who ran in the Risen Star raced in BEFORE the Risen Star, while they were still learning, and I believe they have matured since then and they also got something out of running 1-1/8.  I really liked Tapit Conquest's Jan 21 race  where he was learning to stretch out and how he showed at CDX before that he can stalk and then draw off and win by almost 4 lengths.  All I was looking for at the time was improvement from a baby.   He wont be 3 years old until.....tomorrow!  

Single Ruler is so darn pretty.......it was hard not to fall for him. And I also love his Jan race....he wasn't even 3 years old until this week either!  (March 17th).   For him to have run at FG like he did, way back in January, tracking the pace and sitting right where you would want a stalker to be, in his maiden at 1-1/16th  --- at that age, I thought was impressive and shows he was learning. 

I kinda like watching horses "coming along".....I know US racing fans are so used to seeing fire-breathers coming out of The Baffert Program, which ruins them early, I have no such expectation, and like to see if they are coming around by the time they are going to run 1-1/8 and here, 1-3/16th.   We will get to see if they have matured at all. 

I think going for a new shooter here, to run 1-3/16th, with such a very long stretch that FG has (a lot longer than CD, OP or AQ) is a lot to ask.  That is why I"m not going for the Pletcher or Disarm.   I think they are not ready to do this yet. 

So what do ya think?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/20/23

Brad Cox has 2 in here that are Lasix free Who would of thought. LOL  Louisiana Derby

Both have the the highest bris speed figures in the field  and with out Lasix.

Which Lasix  Horse will improve to jump up without Lasix and finish  with the best numbers of their

careers to finish ahead of those  2 lasix free if there are no troubled trips is the question if you want to beat them.

I haven't got that far , Last year if there was a Pletcher or Cox L horse in a non L race thats who jumps up.

For some reason I don't know why ,it must be the feed, .

pianot

From: pianot

3/20/23

For what race:). 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/20/23

From my Message1798 above, all was on there before the race and

This was there Data : Ave Dist Pace  Speed : Epicenter 102 102 87 96,Zozos 75 75 111 94, Pion O Med. 93 93 87 91   Came in Like clockwork and I didn't change it pre race, Some will be my own numbers from their mistakes
or I read it different. 4th number their speed number 96 for Epicenter

This was Bris numbers : not bad .filled the super 

Early:100 Epicenter 98 -1st Pioneer of Medina -3rd 90 Rattle N Roll -4th, 1st 3rd, 4th
Late:111 *Zozos-2nd 102 Call Me Midnight 100 Curly Tail ,  *2nd

this was my Numbers :Last Q :Epicenter 9f 24.62 1/8 12.45, Pion Med. 9f, 24.68 1/8 12.21, Zozos 24.14 3/16 30.04

Picking Epicenterr E8 to Win on a fast track, E types win 40%/ Underneath Pioneer Of Medina, Zozos, Galt,  Call Me Midnight, Rattle N Roll not fit for the win
6/ 2,3,7,8,9/ 2,3,7,8,9...... check back
---------

Not to shabby.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/20/23

Louisiana Derby.

pianot

From: pianot

3/20/23

I know info isn't in that thread :)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/20/23

It was a reply to Winter and I added the race in the message, sorry, thanks for letting me know I missed it.

Louisiana Derby. 

pianot

From: pianot

3/20/23

Just messing with you. Thanks for what u do.

  • Edited March 20, 2023 8:34 pm  by  pianot
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/20/23

smartyslew said...

Brad Cox has 2 in here that are Lasix free Who would of thought. LOL  Louisiana Derby

Both have the the highest bris speed figures in the field  and with out Lasix.

Yeah, I saw that, thanks for pointing it out.   Cox is a tricky guy.   But he also puts up horses like Verifying and Giant Mischief, so he's not a monolith.    Did you know he said " chasing Bob Baffert helps motivate him to get out of bed in the morning"?  

He should be chasing Steve Asmussen, who made racing history last month with 10,000 North American wins.  Can you even IMAGINE doing that?  (Cox only has about 2,000). The winniest trainer in North America.   SA sure seems to have a better run barn than Baffert and can actually time his horses medications properly, for starters.  LOL  


The one thing I have always said about Steve, when his horses come into the paddock, they are the "best dressed", no matter what level of race it is.  Braided manes, every horse is SPOTLESS.   And it's always like that.  He employs some very talented artisitic grooms.   (Lukas, too though not as over the top best dressed).  

I didn't pick his horses for the LA Derby, but Asmussen was robbed of the derby with Gun Runner, and Epicenter.   It's a curious kind of curse, he's won everything there is to win on an entire continent, but can't win the KY Derby.   So, I am kinda rooting for him this year but not sure he has the horse to do it.   I'm not a super trainer groupie, just giving credit where due. 

This may not have occured to severyone,  but here are the earnings, lifetime:

Steve Asmussen  $407,586,094

 

Bob Baffert  $341,430,502
Chad Brown $252,011,391 
Brad Cox  $137,735, 296 

 

 

 
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